I wrote a post today, oh boy
I’m just a drunken man who made some grades
And though the post was rather bad
Well, I just had to laugh
I tried to grade the draft
I lost my mind ‘bout Cameron Carr
I didn’t notice who got Stirtz and Swain
I got Onyenso turned around
With Zuby Ejiofor
Nobody was really sure who drafted Yaxel Lendeborg
I watched some film today, oh boy
On Wagler, Flemings, Acuff, Philon, Brown
A crowd of point guards lotto bound
But I just had to look
To see which one Sac took
I’d love to tu-u-u-u-u-u-u-rn thi-i-i-i-i-i-i-s o-o-o-o-o-o-o-ff
Woke up, gotta prevent
Them overdrafting Nate Ament
Found my way online and read a mock
It looked like Ok-para was ranked too low
Read that Koa’s stock was flat
Chris Cenac was not all that
Found my way up top, it’s AJ who?
And number two was Darryn Peterson
Boo-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-zer!
I saw the lids today, oh boy
Some sixty team hats on the Barclay’s stage
And though the hats were rather small
They had to wear them all
Now they know the size of hat it takes to fit Tobi Lawal
I’d love to tu-u-u-u-u-u-u-rn thi-i-i-i-i-i-i-s o-o-o-o-o-o-o-ff

OK, sorry, I don’t know what got into me. (Never could be any other way!) This is usually where I whine about the weather and tell you what’s on the TV in the background and what’s in the glass beside me. But, you know, sometimes you get the idea to name your post with a pun on a classic song title and kind of realize you have to follow through. For the record, I didn’t write that the same night I did the grades. My word. It takes me like at least five hours to write up the grades themselves…no, I wrote that thing on May 31st because, you know, I was bored that night. (OK, honestly I had intended to do some light reading and then that plan went up in smoke.) Actually, it’s pretty good, and my only regret is that Keyshawn Hall didn’t get drafted because his name would have fit even better in the hat verse. That said, Tobi Lawal was one of only ten guys who attended the Day 2 Green Room so we literally got to see him wear a hat on stage so I am SO not complaining. Also I’d like to note that I didn’t really get anything badly wrong about draft order – AJ/Peterson/Boozer fell out just as the song needed them to; of the listed PGs only Philon didn’t go lottery, and even then I didn’t exactly expect him to; Koa and Cenac both fell too far.

But of course, it is just a bit after 8; I’ve got the windows open because it’s already nice and cool and outside of that one heat wave I was out of town for, the A/C hasn’t even come on this entire year; I’ve got a full bottle of wine that I don’t intend to finish because I’m supposed to go see mom tomorrow; there’s MTV Classic playing on the TV; and it’s time to write up some grades! Just in case you needed to know.

Additionally, “Well, I had two weeks of vacation time coming after working all year down at Big Roy’s Heating and Plumbing”, so a while back I decided to go through and update the NBA logos once again. These new logos are pretty slick, and WordPress, for all of their incessant tinkering that normally makes things worse did manage to make the image replacement process pretty easy. So I resized ’em, too! (Technically, the new images came in at “big” whereas the old ones were already at 150×150 native so it was important to resize them anyway.) So, I’ve set them to be a tiny bit bigger (width = 200 pixels) which should slightly improve your viewing pleasure, especially as they are now nice and sharp relative to recent versions. I did notice that some of the images have a transparent background and some have a white background…not much I can (or at least not much I’m gonna) do about that. Double-side-note: WordPress also has some updates that allow me to lump each team’s full write-up into a group and then drag-and-drop for grade placement. I’ve literally been cut-and-pasting from the code editor for (checks post title) 15 years and now there’s something better! Yay! Maybe I’ll be less grumpy in my grade write-ups. (Maybe I’ll be less grumpy in my grade write-ups because this is a really, really nice draft by all appearances.)

This year the big buzz coming into the draft was the question of if (or, if we gauge the reports correctly, “where”) Giannis was going to be traded. 24 hours before the draft – still nada. 19.5 hours before the draft? BOOM. Miami is the big winner, and that being a draft-associated trade will be discussed at the appropriate places below.

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success? So much success!)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before/during the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades, though the new NBA policy of allowing teams to negotiate with their own free agents following the end of the NBA Finals – and the agreed-upon contracts announced before the draft – does throw a bit of a wrench into that whole thing.

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.  In the case of a traded pick, I will do my best to keep track of where the pick came from.

Several years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a percentage value – interestingly this year the Wizards do come out with the highest draft value despite having very little to go along with their #1 overall pick.  I’ve included this value as (DV xx%) following the listed picks.

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  Also, no fucking S-tier.  What the fuck is that shit?  (Hilariously, in this strong draft year my placeholder grades failed miserably. I ended up with 5 As, 5 Bs, 3 Cs, 6 Ds, and 11 Fs…I guess I was a bit overcompensating for the strength of the draft!)  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

The Grades:

Sacramento Kings

Grade: A+?

Assets Coming In: #7, #34, #45 (DV 59%, 9th), 2032 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Darius Acuff Jr. (#7), Alex Karaban (#29), Emanuel Sharp (#45)
Obligatory Commentary: Whew! Sometime in February I determined that Darius Acuff Jr. was the clear frontrunner in the “doesn’t make his way into the top-4” race. To be fair, because he’s a ball-dominant player, and because Darryn Peterson had such a disappointing season, there was an argument to consider Acuff as high as second in this draft. But as we all (except John Calipari, the best hype-man in the known universe) knew, he wasn’t even in the discussion until #5. After the Kings fell to #7 in the lottery there was still a hope that Acuff might last to them, because he was blocked by Garland on the Clippers and by Demin/Traore/Saraf on the Nets. The Kings very obviously wanted Acuff (GM Scott Perry had a previous relationship with him due to coaching his father at the college level many, many years ago), and Acuff’s team very clearly wanted Sacramento because there was a wide-open path to be the starter from day one. A match made in heaven! Still, a kid who can basically do everything but defend had to fall past two teams who would be dumb to pass on him, and who would likely also be dumb to pass on the trade proposals they were going to get to move down allowing somebody else to move up and nab him. Somehow, Scott Perry stood firm and refused to move up to get his guy (I’m not sure I’d have had the cojones to do it!) and in the end he got him. I think we’re going to be very happy. I think Acuff is going to be the best PG to come through Sacramento when all is said and done, and we’ve had Fox and Bibby and J-Will and Tyreke’s ROY campaign. I was 100% in the Acuff camp despite fan factions favoring each of the other three PG options at #7, most notably Flemings. But I was pretty convinced that by the time the 6th pick came through on draft night I’d be disappointed. I wasn’t the only one. You can look it up, but the cheer that went up in the Golden One Center watch party crowd when the Nets passed on Acuff for Brown was deafening. We all knew. We all knew, bro. After securing the future franchise PG, Scott Perry went out and traded up to secure ultimate glue guy Alex Karaban. Karaban is a rarity – a guy I cheered returning to college last year because we didn’t have a pick in range to grab him. This year, we got him, and I’m ecstatic. Karaban is not destined to be a star by any means, but he’s just such a solid rotation player that you can’t refuse. Finally, there’s Sharp. While he didn’t exactly fit the front office’s list of roles they were looking to fill (point guard: check; movement shooter: check; size/bulk at forward: ???) he’s a solid defender who spent much of his senior season at Houston guarding the 3 despite being the shortest of the three guards in the Cougars’ staring lineup. Sharp is strong and tough, a relentless defender, and a great shooter. In the NBA, he’s going to be a guard, and he fits that role perhaps even better than he fit the role of a SF in college. What with Flemings and Cenac around I never watched a single game with Sharp in mind, but he stole the show far too often for it to be a fluke. What a dead-on draft. Couldn’t have been better. This is the moment. This is when we turned it around. I’m calling it.


Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #10 (DV 36%, 14th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2/$121), Bobby Portis (2/$30), $$$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Brayden Burries (#10), Nate Ament (#13), Malique Lewis (#60), Tyler Herro (1/$33), Jaime Jaquez (1/$6), Kel’el Ware (2/$12), Kasparas Jakucionis (3/$14), 2030 1st (MIA, swap), 2031 1st (MIA), 2033 1st (MIA), 2033 2nd (MIA)
Obligatory Commentary: Well…that was a haul. Sure, Herro is expiring and might head anywhere after this year, but Jaquez is going to be an RFA, they’ve got two years of Ware before he’s an RFA, and three years of Jakucionis before the same. On top of that they got #13 in this deep draft, two further unprotected first rounders, and a swap. That’s an absolute haul. When you have to trade away one of the best players in the game, that’s the way you do it. And with that return, they probably stay out the relegation zone on top of that. This is a quick, quick reboot out of a forced hand. Love it. The draft is all about the future for the Bucks. I’m not all that high on Burries – I think he turns out to be a mid-tier starting SG – but he’s still a piece that can contribute in the future. But Nate Ament…this is about the best landing spot I can imagine. I’ve been quoted as saying that Nate Ament is the one player in this draft that is sure to get a GM fired – either the GM that drafted him or one that passed on him, and I don’t know which. It all comes down to whether he never fulfills his promise and washes out or whether he ends up as a smooth-shooting athletic SF with extra height and length in a Durant-lite mode. I don’t know which it is, but I do know that Milwaukee post-Giannis is about the best place for him to determine which road he’s going down. I was fully prepared to completely harsh whichever team drafted Ament, but Milwaukee, rebuilding for sure and sitting on two-and-a-half Miami picks that promise to be worth a ton once Giannis ages out of his championship window, is exactly the team to develop him with basically no fear of downside and all hope of upside. Additionally the Bucks bought back into Mr. Irrelevant to pick up…Malique Lewis? Look, I don’t get it. If they didn’t take him he would have been available as a UDFA. This is like paying an upfront fee to join the Columbia Record Club. Ah, fuck it, Milwaukee gets an A+ anyway.


Miami Heat

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #13, #41 (DV 35%, 15th), Tyler Herro (1/$33), Jaime Jaquez (1/$6), Kel’el Ware (2/$12), Kasparas Jakucionis (3/$14), 2030 1st (MIA, swap), 2031 1st (MIA), 2033 1st (MIA), 2033 2nd (MIA), $$$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ryan Conwell (#37), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2/$121), Bobby Portis (2/$30)
Obligatory Commentary: This is a tough one. On the bright side, Giannis has become the latest top-5 NBA player to make his way to South Beach. Shaq, LeBron, Bosh, Butler…and I’m probably forgetting somebody somewhere along the line (Wade doesn’t count as Miami actually drafted him). It must be nice to have that kind of pull. And – let’s not forget – he’s Giannis. On the other hand, Miami’s cupboard is now looking kind of barren. They’re paying over 65% of their salary cap for Giannis and Bam alone. But to go along with those guys they’ve got Andrew Wiggins, Jovic, Portis, Davion…and not much. They’re something like $20M over the salary cap and they don’t actually have a full rotation. They don’t actually have a proper SG, and they kind of don’t have a proper PG (given they have Giannis they don’t really need one, but still…that G rotation is Davion and pray you can find somebody to stay in front of anybody on the perimeter). Now, I’m sure they’ll work something out by the end of the offseason, but launching themselves into the Contention Seat is going to be costly and almost certainly have very negative repercussions in the future. They’ve probably got a two-year window with Giannis at age-32 and age-33 and then – ziiiiiiip! – their fly is going to be open for five years or so. They have to make the absolute most of it right now. Still, you don’t get to trade for Giannis and not get an A. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. (Fine, they’re my draft grades, I do make the rules. Fuck you.) Outside of their huge trade Miami didn’t have anything left to be done except to draft Ryan Conwell, the senior Louisville guard who sometimes made you forget about Mikel Brown Jr. being his teammate. Much better defender. Good shooter. Nice energy. Nothing resembling a starting guard in the NBA. And being drafted at #37, that’s fine. Really, this grade is all about Giannis. Miami is going to be walking a thin line trying to win a chip before Giannis washes out, but, bro, shoot your shot.


Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #22 (DV 17%, 21st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Labaron Philon Jr. (#22)
Obligatory Commentary: Look, I’m a big, big fan of Labron Philon. He’s got the best handle I’ve seen in college basketball for the last several years at least, he can shoot, and he can run an offense with some of the better pocket passes, again, in the last several years. At #22 you get that guy? I had him #1 on my PG list behind the Acuff/Brown/Wagler trio. My only reservation here is that Philon’s probably going to be stuck behind Tyrese Maxey for the foreseeable future and I really just want to see him cook. Welp. Still a great pickup at #22.


Washington Wizards

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #1, #51, #60 (DV 100%, 1st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: AJ Dybantsa (#1), Felix Okpara (#46)
Obligatory Commentary: Look. Despite my insistence that this was a strong draft, and despite my reticence to award a good grade to a team that has the #1 pick overall, I’ve found a lot of ways to shit all over the other various selections in this draft. I can’t do that for the Wizards here. AJ was pretty obviously the #1 player in the draft, and the Wizards didn’t succumb to any sort of retarded temptation about Darryn Peterson, they just took him. Now, I’m not going to defend the fact that they resigned Trae Young for twice what he’s worth, but neither will I penalize them for it as that’s not the function here. I fully expect that by game one of the ’27-’28 season AJ is going to be the on-ball point forward for the Wizards and Trae is going to be chopped liver. AJ is the future of the Wizards, and with a panoply of distractors in the top-4 the Wizards found their way to him anyway. That’s worth an A, even if they did have the #1 overall pick. (Also, fucking I can’t lie, with the new alphabetical order the Wiz are the dead last team I’m grading, I’m drunk off my ass, and despite all that I think I’ve given out only about three A’s so far – in a ruthlessly strong draft – and something’s gotta give. Man, I thought with the strength of this draft I’d be forgiving, but apparently my true colors shine through that mud. Fuck all y’all. Y’all suck.)


Boston Celtics

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #27, #40 (DV 19%, 18th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Chris Cenac Jr. (#27), Dillon Mitchell (#40)
Obligatory Commentary: Somehow the Celtics came into the draft without Giannis and they came out of the draft without Giannis and it still feels like they’re the losers here. Well, they are the losers. And do you know why? Because they apparently had a Jaylen Brown deal with the Bucks that got blown up because they didn’t want to include Hugo Gonzalez (3.9 PPG) and Baylor Scheierman (5.5 PPG). Timofey Mozgov, step aside! There’s a new stumbling block in town! (And, to be fair, Mozgov eventually was included in the Carmelo Anthony trade…) But, in the end, I think it’s really hard to penalize a team in their draft grades for a trade they didn’t make. What the Celtics DID do is they nabbed a kid who kinda moves like Horford (and is probably an inch taller!) but whose stock was in the tank for reasons that I don’t really know. Cenac isn’t ready, but he rebounds like a monster and the stroke looks really workable and I had him late-lottery on my Vague Board™, so I’m figuring there must be something hidden in his medicals or personal file that DQs him. Still, he’s an incredible value at #27 and I think there’s going to be at least a solid handful of teams that regret passing on him in five years.


Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #25 (DV 14%, 22nd), $$$ and more $$$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cameron Carr (#24)
Obligatory Commentary: The Lakers ended up pulling a couple of trades on draft night, but in the end it all translated to them spending a lot of money to move up one spot in the draft to snatch the dropping Cameron Carr. Now, early in the season all the mocks had Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou well above Carr (if Carr was on them at all) but watching the games I was easily convinced that Carr was the better player. And sure enough, Yessoufou dropped out of the draft (and into the portal) and Carr made his way into the first round, even if it was a bit lower than he probably deserved. Is Carr The Answer? No. But he’s a two-guard with good size and athleticism and I think he’s going to carve out a good career. I don’t know if the Lakers had to move up one spot to grab him, but I think they’ll be reasonably happy they did.


Phoenix Suns

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #47 (DV 5%, 27th), 2029 2nd, 2033 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Koa Peat (#30)
Obligatory Commentary: It took two second round picks, but the Suns were able to trade up into the last pick of the first round and grab the plummeting Koa Peat on a four-year guaranteed deal. Now, let’s be clear, Peat’s representation completely failed him here because he’d have made double what he’s going to make in the NBA next year had he returned to Arizona, and he’d have been able to compete for a championship. But, hey, I guess he gets to move 90 minutes north and trade the epic street hot dogs for the hopes of rising from the ashes. But, to be fair, this grade shouldn’t be about Peat – it should be about the Suns, who got a damn bargain. I have to be honest, Peat started extremely strong and then faded hard this season, but man, I thought he was a lotto consolation prize early on. At #30 he’s a straight steal. Sure, maybe he doesn’t pan out, but these are the best odds the Suns are going to see for a while, and they did it having very little value coming into the draft.


Charlotte Hornets

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #14, #18 (DV 47%, 11th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Hannes Steinbach (#14), Christian Anderson Jr. (#18)
Obligatory Commentary: While I won’t technically use it as part of this grade, the Hornets’ draft outlook got completely flipped upside-down by the shock trade they made the day after the draft, when they shipped off LaMelo Ball for Naz Reid. A draft that originally looked like it left playing time pretty wide open for Steinbach while burying sharpshooter Anderson behind Ball suddenly had Anderson looking to play and Steinbach looking to sit (maybe next year, maybe no-go) with his Simon LeBon tie tucked into his dress shirt halfway down. I’m lying, Steinbach didn’t have a Simon LeBon tie on at the draft, but MTV Classic is playing Duran Duran and I can get a bit distracted sometimes. Anyway, flipping a B+ upside down leaves…a B+!


Utah Jazz

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #2 (DV 64%, 4th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Darryn Peterson (#2), the complete inability to pick a logo
Obligatory Commentary: Jesus. What do you think about Darryn Peterson? Who is evil? Who is blind? If you want to give him the full benefit of the doubt, he’s a dominating lead guard, a uniform that couldn’t be taken off, who sucked in college because he accidentally and continuously overdosed on creatinine, resulting in muscle cramping that destroyed his effectiveness and moved him off the ball into a role that would hardly earn him a top-ten pick based on his performance. If you don’t want to give him the benefit of the doubt, he’s a massive walking red flag who didn’t play hard and who proved basically nothing, who tore the innocent souls apart and shoveled his conscience into the grave. For the time being, I’m going to partially give him the benefit of the doubt. Some of this is simply because after going through the grades on this “epic” draft I’m really, desperately short on good ones, though I’m not going above B here. Not when you take a guy with huge question marks with the #2 pick in a strong draft. Never, never again.


Brooklyn Nets

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #6, #33, #43 (DV 63%, 6th), Nicolas Claxton (2/$44)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Mikel Brown Jr. (#6), Joshua Jefferson (#28), Tyler Bilodeau (#43), Julius Randle (2/$69), a new-to-you updated logo
Obligatory Commentary: The Nets pulled off a really solid trade the day before the draft, upgrading Claxton to Randle and moving up 5 slots in the draft at the cost of nothing but sweet, sweet payroll (about $25M of it over the next two years, unless Randle opts out next year, but I don’t see that happening). Then they pulled the move of the day (for Kings fans!) by passing on obvious BPA Darius Acuff for the other Jr., Mikel Brown. Now, I don’t think Brown is a disaster or anything – prior to the college season he was widely projected as a top-5 guy and the first of the non-Darryn guards off the board – but I do worry about his attitude (man, you should have seen that scowl on the interview couch after he was drafted) and his back injury. Sure, he’s taller than Acuff, but height isn’t everything and now that he’s stuck on a Brooklyn roster with not one, not two, but three PGs drafted in the first round just last year, he’s going to have to battle for his minutes, and, man, I don’t know if he has it in him. The rest of the draft went a good deal better for the Nets, nabbing up Swiss Army Knife Jefferson in the very late first with that Minny pick and then making the perspicacious pick of Bilodeau pretty early in the second. Tyler can shoot the lights out as a bench PF, he just needs to work on his body a bit, and with an NBA training staff, I think he’s a lock to eke out a useful NBA career – all you can really ask for in the 40s. A good draft weighed down by what probably turns out to be an error at the top.


Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #3, #16, #32 (DV 92%, 2nd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cameron Boozer (#3), Karim Lopez (#21), Richie Saunders (#32), Isaiah Stewart (2/$30), 2030 2nd (best of DEN/MIA/HOU), 2033 2nd (OKC)
Obligatory Commentary: The rule is not “he who dies with the most second round picks wins”. But then again! See, this comment made sense at one point in time, largely because of the fact that the NBA draft now takes place on two separate days. On Day 1 of the draft, the Grizz not only picked up two seconds via OKC, but they also picked up three seconds via Detroit, leaving them with an excess of five second-round picks. I wrote the start of a snarky comment about it, because, fuck you, of course I did. Then, on Day 2 of the draft, the Grizz went and sent those exact three picks BACK to Detroit and picked up the contract of Isaiah Stewart instead. I’m not a math major, but even I know that 3 + (-3) = 0. And all of a sudden, this ridiculous collection of picks no longer looks ridiculous. But do you think I’m going to delete a comment about dying with picks? Have you even met me? No! But at least it’s an interesting story. The rest of the Grizz draft was a bit more chalk than I care for. Cameron Boozer is a great college player, and we’re all watching to see whether he can keep it up as an undersized Duke post player in the NBA. (One guy who DID keep it up as an undersized Duke post player in the NBA: Carlos Boozer!) But we could have predicted that Boozer would be the #3 pick in the draft in, say, January, so I’m calling this chalk. The Grizz played the Acquisition Game (say hi, Knicks!) with #16 and ended up taking Karim Lopez with #21, but Karim’s claim to fame is to be the first Mexican-born player to be drafted in the first round and if I’ve got a reasonable opinion about it that will be the only thing he’s ever known for. I would like to point out that MTV Classic has apparently switched to programming that includes a Norwegian Death Metal band making extremely weird noises over a video in which Jesus kicks over the tables at the Temple and I’m not here for it. I see. “Metal Mayhem” for another half hour. How many pieces of silver is it going to cost me to skip over this? Anyway, there’s also the question of Richie Saunders, the oldest player in the draft and also the only player in the draft currently recovering from a torn ACL. But hell, why not draft the kid anyway? To be fair, I really liked Saunders before his injury (which I think I watched live). He’s a kid who leaves it all on the court defensively – maybe not a star on that end but he gives something around 1200% every possession – and who can shoot the hell out of the ball. I’m just worried that the ACL is going to spell the end of his career before it started.


Denver Nuggets

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #26, #49 (DV 17%, 20th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Trevon Brazile (#35), Bryce Hopkins (#49), 2028 2nd (MIN), 2031 2nd (SAC)
Obligatory Commentary: I don’t care much for Bryce Hopkins, but I kind of like what Denver did here by trading down to grab a couple of seconds and picking up Trevon Brazile for their trouble. Now, I was really hoping that the Kings would manage to pick up the underrated Brazile – one of the world’s best lob threats – with their second pick in round two, but I can’t really complain about him going #35. Brazile was a complete no-show on just about all of the draft mocks all year long and I said (in my head, when it was relevant), if you think that Brazile isn’t going to be drafted, you’ve got another thing coming. And yes, I then pointed out (again in my head) that Judas Priest didn’t actually know that the phrase is “you’ve got another THINK coming”, and then I began to wonder what this had to do with grading drafts and I moved on to the next team. Which, in alphabetical order (thanks, WordPress, for making the reorder work so so very much better!) is Detroit. So the Pistons are up next (for me), after a refill. I’m sure that Denver really appreciates this random commentary in their draft write-up. Well, if they don’t like it, maybe they shouldn’t have allowed their airport Dollar rental car to screw me over two months ago, hmm?


Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #5, #36, #52 (DV 63%, 5th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Keaton Wagler (#5), Baba Miller (#36), Nick Martinelli (#55), Narcisse Ngoy (#57), a new-to-you updated logo
Obligatory Commentary: Before getting to the actual grade, I do want to address the elephant in the room, which is that the Clippers traded their way into a very very late pick and then used it to select a player who didn’t actually think he was in the draft. This Ngoy kid committed to play at Auburn next year back in March. But due to his age and the fact that he previously played under an international contract he was automatically eligible, which probably turned out to confuse him a whole shit ton when his name ended up getting called at the end of Day Two. As it turns out, the Clippers get to use this as a draft-and-stash, so I guess we’ll see how it works out in half-a-decade, now that the NCAA has instituted their new 5-in-5 rule and this 22-year-old international pro will be eligible to play in college until he’s 27. Have I ever mentioned that I love college basketball? Yes? Have I ever mentioned that the NCAA is a fucking feckless and cowardly organization that has spent the last decade desperately trying (and desperately failing) to avoid being sued instead of using their mandate to actually deal with the problems that face collegiate sports ever since they refused to face the fact that their beloved “student-athlete” model has fallen apart? Yes? Good. I’ll say it again. And again. And again. Fucking losers. But this is supposed to be about the Clippers… And the Clippers went and made a cardinal error – they drafted for position rather than for best player available. They should have taken the obvious BPA in Darius Acuff, who has some serious star potential, but since they’re already committed to the other Darius (no, not Rucker!) at PG they gave the garland to Keaton Wagler, a player who has the ability to swing over to SG, instead. Now, I like Wagler, but his value lies mostly in being a combo guard who plays on the ball with a ton of size. Take him off the ball and he’ll look like he did in the early season in Illinois before Kylan Boswell’s midseason injury…which is to say, he isn’t going to be scoring 40+ in a game, that’s for sure. On top of that, there’s a reason that Nick Martinelli stayed in college for his full span of eligibility, and it’s not that he couldn’t fully showcase his talents on a stacked Northwestern squad. Baba Miller is an interesting case. He only played for three schools in his four years of college (definitely not a record) and he’s dreadfully skinny and can’t score. But that said, he can’t shoot either (under .200 from three this year) and if he didn’t rebound and pass the ball really well, he’d be an afterthought. He’s still an afterthought. But he’s exactly what a two-way contract is made for. I hope he likes San Diego. (Aside: the fact that the San Diego Clippers re-exist as a G-League franchise is either beautiful or pathetic or both and I think it’s both.)


Chicago Bulls

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #4, #15, #38, #56 (DV 90%, 3rd), Mohamedou Gueye (1/$2.4ug)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Caleb Wilson (#4), Dailyn Swain (#15), Nicolas Claxton (2/$44), Kam Jones (3/$7.5), 2030 2nd (IND, swap), $$$
Obligatory Commentary: The Bulls came into the offseason with a ton of cap space, and they used a pre-draft trade to fill some of it and to fix their empty C slot by “absorbing” Claxton to facilitate the Nets-Wolves trade. By rule they had to “touch” Minnesota in the trade, but nothing has been reported as yet so they’re probably sending some stale draft rights or something (Breaking – that “something” is the unguaranteed contract of Mohamedou Gueye – that would be the useless guard, not Atlanta’s useless power forward missing the “ou”.) To be fair, “Not So Speedy” Claxton is no slam dunk here – he’s a league-average big man with declining rebounding and shot-blocking numbers on a fair contract – but just filling that empty C slot using nothing but cap space makes it all worthwhile. In the draft, the Bulls went straight chalk with their #4 pick, taking athlete Caleb Wilson. Don’t get me wrong, I loved Wilson and would happily have taken him, but the more I thought about him I started to question how impactful he would be as an off-ball player. Now, I fully acknowledge that Wilson is a euchaotic nightmare out there – he is full effort full time, and possession after possession he just makes things happen. But of all of the top…well seven picks in this draft, really, Wilson is the only one who you can’t just give the ball at the end of the game and ask him to get you a bucket. He doesn’t really work that way. I will put forth that Wilson will win the Bulls more than one game next year on a late putback, he’ll play good defense, all of that, but when push comes to shove I worry that his impact is going to largely evaporate in the late game. Hell, I’m an idiot so ignore this. Look, I actually love him, but I see why he went #4 and not #1. The Swain pick…that one I don’t see so much. Swain is one of those prototypical long wings that GMs love so much, but here’s the thing: he can’t shoot, and if you look at his combine numbers, he’s not terribly athletic. He’s on par with Alex Karaban (not kidding!) athletically. Now Swain was also a very good rebounder, and that’s a skill that’s sure to translate (right, Thomas Robinson?), but he kind of does none of the things that you want out of a rangy wing. Oops. The Bulls opted out of the second round of the draft, so not much to say there. In the end, even with Wilson coming in, I worry that the Bulls won’t look back on this draft as the difference-maker for their franchise.


Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #29 (DV 11%, 24th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Meleek Thomas (#34), 2032 2nd (SAC)
Obligatory Commentary: The Cavs traded down and still managed to grab at #34 a kid that some (probably unreliable) reports suggested had a chance to climb his way into the lottery. Now, that’s kinda crazy (not that he fell that far, but that reports suggested he could get anywhere within sniffing distance of the lottery), as Thomas was basically a creation of Darius Acuff if we’re to take Calipari’s comments at face value. Thomas is not an outstanding defender, he can shoot and score a bit if he gets set up, but he’s not an on-ball player and there are about zero reasons to think he’s going to have a huge role at the next level. Now, in the second round that’s no big deal and as long as he can carve out a bit of a career he’s fine, but don’t expect much more than that.


Atlanta Hawks

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #8, #23, #57 (DV 60%, 7th), 2030 2nd, 2032 2nd (worst of ATL/LAL), $$$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kingston Flemings (#8), Zuby Ejiofor (#23), Henri Veesaar (#52), Aaron Wiggins (3/$25)
Obligatory Commentary: The Hawks were sitting in the 8th spot and had to settle for the fourth of four consecutive point guards taken. Amazingly, they got the one who reminds me most of recently-departed Trae Young, ratty hair and all. Flemings is a tough case – he wasn’t terribly highly regarded coming into the season, he shot up into the draft boards based on early strong performances, and then he just kind of settled into the lottery despite probably not really being that good. True, he had to share the backcourt with (undrafted) senior Milos Uzan, but that really only emphasized that he didn’t look all that good or useful off the ball. We’ll see how it goes, but for my part I was against the Kings taking him. In fact, before Brown Jr. started his late rise my position was that if the Kings were faced with Acuff and Wagler going directly in front of them, that they should trade down and grab somebody like Philon with another player rather than go Flemings. For one, he gives me the ick, what with his huge bawl fest after Houston got knocked out of the Tourney, and his “pick me” open letter to NBA GMs and his trashy “my journey” liner to his draft suit. I feel like that was a bullet dodged. But the Hawks draft didn’t really get much better. They took the undersized (but at least very explosive) Ejiofor at #23, but with Okongwu already on the roster he just seems duplicative. Veesaar was agent-steered to Atlanta or he would have gone much higher in the second round, and while that’s a point in their favor, it’s not a super strong one as Veesaar is kind of a stiff. I do like the Wiggins pickup as they took advantage of OKC clearing out an overpacked roster, but all things considered they had a lot of draft value and I just didn’t like what they came away with. The Acuff/Brown/Flemings/Wagler debate is going to run for at least a couple of years until they actually sort themselves out, but as of now I think by virtue of being last in line here the Hawks lost.


Detroit Pistons

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #21 (DV 17%, 19th), Isaiah Stewart (2/$30), $$$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ebuka Okorie (#17), Ugonna Onyenso (#53)
Obligatory Commentary: The most notable thing about the Pistons draft is that they drafted two players, and all four names (first names and surnames) of the players they drafted began with vowels. That’s hard to do unless both players you draft are from Nigeria. Well, WHAT DO YOU KNOW? The only good thing about Onyenso being drafted is that (like a few other second rounders) he really allowed me to fill out the stupid parody song I wrote above. Okorie is an interesting prospect, but he burst onto the scene a bit late and if he hadn’t led the ACC in scoring as the lead guard on a pretty iffy Stanford team I’m not sure he really finds his way onto draft boards. But here he is, and he can play a little. He’s stuck behind Cade Cunningham, but he can play a little. I’m completely baffled as to why the Pistons would trade away Beef Stew to move up in a draft and grab a player to stash on the bench for the foreseeable future, but hey, that’s why I’m not an NBA GM. And even then, if that’s your plan, why exactly didn’t you grab Labaron Philon? I dunno, but this isn’t how I would have done things.


Golden State Warriors

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #11, #54 (DV 37%, 13th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Yaxel Lendeborg (#11), Lajae Jones (#54)
Obligatory Commentary: The problem, they say, with Yaxel Lendeborg is that he has maturity issues. As one of the oldest players in the draft, that’s not exactly promising. Also he used to work afterschool at the cinema show. That said, he’s an explosive PF and the Warriors are counting on him being able to prop up their contention chances until Steph Curry finally fades into oblivion (“Can you feel it [f]alling? Empire!”). I don’t think he can do it. I think this was an error and the Warriors will regret not taking a chance on somebody like a Nate Ament. To be honest, with the productivity that Landeborg did show at the end of his college career dipping down into the Ds is a risk here and could look very bad five years from now. Well, somebody’s gotta take the chance of giving out a wrong grade, may as well be me! Anyway, who the hell is Lajae Jones? I do this shit as a hobby when I could be dedicating myself to learning ancient Greek and I have no clue who this kid is and at some point you’ve got to figure that maybe you can feel the (Greek) empire calling…


Toronto Raptors

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #19, #50 (DV 23%, 17th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Allen Graves (#19), Jaden Bradley (#50)
Obligatory Commentary: Man, the Raptors could have done just about anything at #19 – for instance, they could have secured themselves Labaron Philon as their future PG – but instead they went analytics-based and chased after Allen Graves, who didn’t even start for Santa Clara this year. There’s not really a lot of excuse for this. Graves is basically a poor-man’s version of a poor-man’s version of Keegan Murray. And while Keegan is really valuable, and the poor man’s version of Keegan (that is, Kris Murray) is reasonably valuable, that next step down is worth a #39 pick, not a #19 pick. But the Raptors couldn’t quite stay away. Hell, not my problem. I will give them credit for nabbing Jaden Bradley at #50 – Bradley is a very solid backup PG prospect, who after having used up his college eligibility got drafted lower than he deserved. I don’t think he’s a star, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to fill the shoes of the PG that the Raptors didn’t draft in the first round, but he’s got value all the same and he mitigates that short-sighted Graves pick to some extent.


Houston Rockets

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #39, #53 (DV 10%, 25th), 2029 2nd (SAC)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bruce Thornton (#31), $$$, a new and completely inexplicable logo
Obligatory Commentary: Warning!! New Houston Rockets logo incoming!! Warning!! No, seriously, that’s the whole takeaway from the draft. Because I have nothing substantive to say about Bruce Thornton other than that Bruce Hornsby and the Range will probably play the same number of NBA minutes. So can we talk about this new Rockets logo? What the actual yield sign is this shit? There are (to be fair, completely stupid) discussions all over the internet about how to label radioactive waste such that future generations who come after The Fall and who speak some sort of pidgin Australopithecus-Neanderthal click language won’t try to drink it, and I think the answer is to just put one of these Houston Rockets logos on it all. Of course, that’s if you even care whether they drink it at all. Survival of the fittest, baby! Anyway, I’m pretty stoked to think that in some future post-apocalyptic language, that “Houston Rockets” translates to “GERTRUDE DO NOT DRINK!!!!” and I’m going to keep slowly poisoning myself with a pearl-free chalice of blended red. Nice.


Indiana Pacers

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-29th), Kam Jones (3/$7.5), 2030 2nd (swap to CHI)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Braden Smith (#38), A new more mustardy palette for the same old logo
Obligatory Commentary: I like mustard, I really do. I like dijon mustard and I like stoneground mustard and I very much like the Beaver Sweet Hot mustard and I really, really, really like that hot Russian Honey they have at the Hotdogger that smashes your sinuses with a brick of horseradish, oh, indeed I do! French’s yellow mustard? It belongs on a hot dog, as long as there’s relish and onions to go with. I guess you can dip a corn dog in it. It’ll do on a hamburger if you really don’t have anything else. Outside of that, it’s pretty much not on my list. So I’m not sure what the Pacers are doing updating their logo to look like the cheap, bad mustard, especially when they don’t even have any draft picks for me to talk about to mitigate my unrelenting scorn. Can I give the Pacers a bad grade for doing nothing but making me angry with their new logo palette? With no picks in a strong draft like this? Can I??? Well, the answer is “no”. I can’t give the Pacers a bad grade for doing nothing because by the ssecond day of the draft they didn’t do nothing. They reached deep down and traded Kamping up with the Joneses and a future swap to get into the second round and draft…a player so short that he’s shorter than Tyler Tanner. Tyler Tanner is notably the Tennessee PG who made the very good decision to return to college after everybody realized that he’s under 5’11” barefoot and in the new NIL era is going to earn more in college than he’ll ever earn in the pros where he’ll have to play against actual men. Let me put this a bit more succinctly: the Pacers traded into this draft to pick Braden Smith. This is an unforced error. I’ll bet anything that these idiots don’t have any Grey Poupon to loan me.


New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #58 (DV 2%, 28th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jaron Pierre (#58)
Obligatory Commentary: Who? You had one shitty pick and you picked…who? No, seriously, I don’t even know who this guy is. God bless second-round picks, every one! And look, I hate to give out an D- based on this garbage, but it’s too strong a draft to cut you any slack.


Orlando Magic

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #46 (DV 5%, 26th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Izaiyah Nelson (#51), $$$, a new-to-you updated logo that is kinda slick
Obligatory Commentary: You done fucked up, A-A-Ron. I mean, seriously, one lousy pick in the draft and you move backwards just to grab somebody whom nobody has heard of, and who, by his name, belongs in a Key and Peele sketch? But can we talk about the new logo for a minute? Because I’m down. This thing is beautiful. To be fair the five stars don’t really seem to have anything to do with either “Magic” or “Orlando” but I’m about 750% sure this is the best logo the team has ever sported.


Portland Trailblazers

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-29th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: A new skinflint owner who sat out his very first draft
Obligatory Commentary: Man, that’s rough. Buy a team, make extremely poor financial decisions that convince the locals that you intend to move the team, sit out your first draft entirely despite it clearly being the strongest draft in decades, PROFIT! Yeah, maybe you read the zeitgeist of Portland wrong, bro.


Dallas Mavericks

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #9, #30, #48 (DV 54%, 10th), 2030 2nd (PHI), 2032 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Morez Johnson Jr. (#9), Sergio de Larrea (#25), Tobi Lawal (#48), Vsevolod Ishchenko (#56)
Obligatory Commentary: Ozzy Osbourne famously said “Mama, I’m coming home” (I’m listening to him do so as we speak!), and so did Morez Johnson after he got drafted way above his head by his quondam college coach. Yes, the Mavs went and hired Dusty May out from under the mountain of NCAA violations that were about to come his way and then they turned around and immediately sweetened the pot by drafting one of his three ill-gotten big men…and they probably grabbed the wrong one. I dunno. I’m probably going to shit all over all three of those kids, so beware. Actually, depending on how the grades fall out, I might rather say I’ve probably already shat all over all three of those kids, because you’ll read these A-F. All I can say is that there’s this large contingent of pundits who are over the moon about the Johnson/Flagg fit and while I recognize that there’s a skill/athleticism matchup I don’t see a center here. I also don’t see a small forward. So pop one up and play these two baserunners on the court at the same time at your own risk. It’s the incel fly rule. That’s not even nice. Is Flagg an incel? I don’t even know. Maybe. Probably not anymore, says Wilt Chamberlain. But, hey, there was more draft than just the nepo-baby. For instance, Dallas wasted their acquired #56 pick on an Eastern European whose only asset is that his name anagrams to “Involves choked hos”. And they drafted Tobi Lawal, whose only asset is that he allowed my stupid song parody above to actually work. And they drafted Sergio “Delirious” de Larrea, whose only asset is…man, I don’t even know what his asset is. This was not exactly a strong international class. The selling point on de Larrea is that he’s a 6’7″ point guard, but then it turns out that he’s not at all a point guard and suddenly you’re left wondering whether his mother cuts his steak for him and looking for excuses to not draft him. Unless you’re Dallas, where they don’t care who cuts your steak for you as long as you eat it.


Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #28, #59 (DV 13%, 23rd), Julius Randle (2/$69)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Isaiah Evans (#33), Trey Kaufmann-Renn (#59), Mohamedou Gueye (1/$2.4ug), a new logo that is not that much different than the old logo
Obligatory Commentary: The T’Pups’ car no longer has a huge Knick on it – the day before the draft they got themselves completely out from under the Randle contract by shipping him off to the Nets, having the Nets’ return bounce to Chicago, and moving down 5 positions in the draft. I’d hate this less if Randle were a net-negative contract, but he’s really sitting right at expected production for his money. I guess the frontcourt just got way too full for Gobert, Reid, and Randle to handle and something had to give. I’ve seen folks looking at this deal like the Wolves had to attach a first to get rid of Randle, but…they moved down 5 spots – which in some ways might be a blessing because that early second doesn’t get a guaranteed contract. Still, this sucks. And while I technically am not supposed to grade based on subsequent moves, the fact that they then shipped NAZ REID away to get the idiotic LaMelo Ball whose only purpose will be to take the ball out of Anthony Edwards’ hands…what the actual fuck, bro? The T’Wolves started with three pretty nice post players, and by a few days later they had traded two of them away, keeping only the eldest, and getting only a douchebag in return, and you think they’re going to get anything other than an F? But hey, let’s keep going. I mean, apparently MTV Classic’s Metal Mayhem is going to be going for another two hours. FFS. The Wolves used that downgraded pick to grab Isaiah Evans, the single Day 1 Green Room denizen to fall out of the first round…and who pouted his way out of the Green Room prior to Day 2. Bro was allegedly wearing $4M worth of jewelry (hopefully rented) on draft night and his dreams were shattered. He’s cooked. Done. He washes out 100% and ends up playing for a nickel on the dollar in Qatar before it’s over. Drafting him after that embarrassment was a fools errand in the first place. Then, look, I don’t care if you’ve got a nearly-useless penultimate draft pick in your pocket, you don’t use it on Trey Kaufmann-Renn, who pulled out of seventeen drafts in a row (hyperbole, don’t sue me) prior to his final college season because he wasn’t getting drafted. Like a AAAA player in baseball, TK-R just ain’t good enough for the big time. So what did the T’Wolves do right here? Nothing!


New York Knicks

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #24, #31, #55 (DV 27%, 16th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jack Kayil (#39), Tyler Nickel (#47), 2029 2nd (PHX), 2029 2nd (SAC), 2030 2nd (PHI), 2032 2nd (DAL), 2033 2nd (PHX), $$$ and $$$
Obligatory Commentary: The Knicks shouldn’t give a shit. They just won a championship for the first time in my actual life, and I’m fucking old. But coming off that chip they’re focused on nothing but cutting tax space. The cheap bastards. I get it, the DEI executive stole your trash can and you’ve gotta make that up somewhere but maybe the bottom line doesn’t really justify gutting a championship team. Damn, I guess that Mamdani economy is worse than we thought. In a longstanding tradition of pulling the chair out from under the undeserving Spike Lee the Knicks made a series of draft-day trade-downs that ended up netting them a positive four future second round draft picks but no actual talent in the draft. Kayil is sure to be a draft-and-stash-and-forget-and-trade-his-stale-rights-to-move-up-two-slots-in-the-second-round-in-2045 pick, while if I had a (Tyler) nickel for every time a stand-still shooter made a dollar in the NBA I’d still be poor. Enjoy the championship, New York, because if this is the way Dolan is going to run the ship the Mets are going to be hoisting a trophy before the next time the Knicks do. (For reference, despite having the single highest payroll in MLB the Mets are playing .415 ball, are 16 games out of first place, and just today fired their manager. Like, fuck, them’s rough facts.)


San Antonio Spurs

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #20, #35, #42, #44 (DV 37%, 12th), 2028 2nd (MIN), 2031 2nd (SAC)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jayden Quaintance (#20), Tarris Reed Jr. (#26), Ja’Kobi Gillespie (#42), Maliq Brown (#44)
Obligatory Commentary: Another year, another chance to give the Spurs an F grade. When you have the best interior defender in the league, you simply cannot spend a first round pick on a guy with massive medical red flags whose only apparent value is as an interior defender. And I say “apparent value” because we never really got a chance to see Quaintance play in college. He missed the majority of not one but TWO seasons with the same knee injury. He’s apparently likely to miss his entire first season in the NBA to the same injury. What a dumb, stupid, retarded draft for San Antonio. But then they doubled down on it, and tripled down on it, drafting not only Tarris Reed but then Maliq Brown. Reed is a full-sized D-only prospect and Brown is an undersized D-only prospect. Somehow, the Spurs think they lost out in the Finals due to interior defense (despite having Wemby, the best interior defender in the league) when in fact they lost because Fox sucked. Fuck that guy, too. But that doesn’t change the fact that San Antonio completely misdiagnosed the problem. Hey, man, no skin off my back. Let ’em lose. Forever. Amen.


Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: F(uck that guy)

Assets Coming In: #12, #17, #37 (DV 60%, 8th), Aaron Wiggins (3/$25), 2030 2nd (best of DEN/MIA/HOU), 2033 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Aday Mara (#12), Bennett Stirtz (#16), Otega Oweh (#41), 2030 2nd (ATL), 2032 2nd (worst of ATL/LAL), $$$
Obligatory Commentary: Now I know that the Thunder can afford to throw around picks like so much candy from the back of a rusted-out van, but two potentially good second-round picks to move up one slot is a pretty steep price – and that’s before they spent their paper clip trade-up on…Bennett Stirtz? I mean, the kid was a solid college player, but did he ever give me the vibes of “take this dude right after the lottery”? Nope. But on top of that they wasted their #12 on Aday in the Life, a 7’3″ low-stamina stiff who can’t move laterally and relies on college players being dumb enough to try to sneak up a layup on his length after blowing past him on the perimeter. Now, I have to be honest and point out that at least a portion of my hatred for Aday is related to the fact that Dusty May tampered in his recruitment by sneaking in after he had already agreed to return to UCLA for a third season and offering his agent a huge bag on the way to ultimately winning a national championship. It worked, to be sure, but all involved are forever morally tainted and may their memory be shamefully erased like a chalkboard proof that a2 + b2 = c3. Anyway, as I’ve said every time I see him on TV and may it last forever: “Fuck that guy.”


Fourteen annual Draft Grades Threads, seventeen external views!  Seems like a perfect reason to do another!  So here I sit on a Friday night, and with it being the second-warmest day of the year I’m taking that Commando cue from Cody while wondering if my weak-ass A/C is going to bother to kick in before it’s time to open the windows (that’s looking like 2.5 hours away, so I’m guessing it will…nope, it never did.  The temperature just sat a half-a-degree from the thermostat obliging for hours until the temperature outside dropped enough to make opening the windows worth the squeeze.)  There’s a baseball game on, and I’m pretty sure that TCM is still on my streaming provider, so it’s time to pop the champagne (OK, sparkling viognier) and spend hours and hours and hours writing this up.  (No literally, I have sparkling viognier for no particularly good reason other than it seemed like a pretty good value-for-quality purchase.  Also, I’m going to put cherries in it.  Don’t judge.  It’s cherry season, I put cherries in every beverage!  And this thing is pretty sweet already so I don’t think I’m doing it much disservice.)

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success? So much success!)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before/during the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades, though the new NBA policy of allowing teams to negotiate with their own free agents following the end of the NBA Finals – and the agreed-upon contracts announced before the draft – does throw a bit of a wrench into that whole thing.

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.  In the case of a traded pick, I will do my best to keep track of where first rounders came from, but I have pretty much had it with keeping track of second rounders.  There are dozens traded each draft, nobody reports which picks are which, nobody cares…and they’re just cluttering up my asset lines.  Going forward, I have decided to just list the NET number of seconds that a team has either received or given, and let the details slide.  They’re freaking second round picks.

Several years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a percentage value – so for the third year in a row (this is crazy, actually!) the Spurs, coming into the draft, have a strength of 100% and should be hoping to get the best value out of the draft (despite again not having the #1 overall pick this year).  I’ve included this value as (DV xx%) following the listed picks.

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  Also, no fucking S-tier.  What the fuck is that shit?  (Once again while assigning placeholder grades to this draft I ended up with 5 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 7 Ds, and 6 Fs…basically a bullseye…again.  After 15 years I am unbelievably consistent at this.)  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

The Grades:

UTA

Utah Jazz

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #5, #21, #43, #53 (DV 80%, 4th), 2 Future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ace Bailey (#5), Walter Clayton Jr. (#18), John Tonje (#53)
Obligatory Commentary: Uh-oh.  We have a situation.  Ace Bailey apparently may have told the Jazz not to draft him, and they did anyway.  Now, it sounds like he’s not going to report to the intro press conference, and…whoooo.  But, one day later, it looks like things have patched up and he’s going to report to the Jazz after all.  This is good news for Ainge, because Bailey is the guy I would have taken #2 in this draft, the consensus be damned.  Yes, he measured out disappointingly small at the combine given that we thought he was supposed to be a legit 6’10″+ (actually rounds up to 6’9″ in shoes) but he’s a brilliant shot creator for his age, and the projections look to be off the charts.  Again, IMHO, but there were two players in this draft with even a chance to become franchise-level guys, and Bailey (not Harper) was the other one.  The Jazz were smart to draft him, and it looks like he blinked in the end.  Clayton at #18 is also a great pick.  Dude is a winner, and has been for a while.  He led Florida to the championship, he’s an older guy but pretty clearly a lotto-level player, and everybody wants to go crazy for Jeremiah Fears.  Idiots, all of them!  I’ll forgive Tonje at #53 with the rest of the draft, this is a straight win.

MIA

Miami Heat

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #20 (DV 19%, 19th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kasparas Jakucionis (#20)
Obligatory Commentary: There was a lot of chatter that the Heat’s pick at #20 may have been on the block, but that was before Jakucionis inexplicably fell from a presumed top-10 guy down all the way past the next decade.  I don’t quite get it, because as a Fighting Illinus, Kasparas looked every bit the part of an electric lead guard with size and passing and shooting skills.  I would have punched my mom in the face to be able to draft him at #20, and apparently the Heat felt the same way.  Whatever deals they may have had on the back burner got stuffed, and they just kept that prize that fell right into their laps.  Mama Riley didn’t raise no dummies.

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #48, #56 (DV 7%, 23rd), Desmond Bane (4/$163), 2028 1st (ORL), 2 Future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cedric Coward (#11), Javon Small (#48), Jahmai Mashack (#59), Cole Anthony (2/$26), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2/$45), 2026 1st (PHX), 2028 1st (ORL), 2029 1st (ORL swap, prot), 2030 1st (ORL), Justinian Jessup (stale draft rights)
Obligatory Commentary: In their pre-draft trade, the Grizz tried to do their best Thunder impression by locking up every future pick in the entire draft in exchange for Desmond Bane, who is apparently the greatest former #30 pick the world has ever seen. That actually seems like good value, especially if you look at it in terms of value per wingspan, because ain’t nobody ever traded even one first round pick for Lips Like Sugar/Arms Like Scrappy Doo before, mush less four picks and a swap!  Somehow, some way, they also moved up a bit to turn the pick they got for this year’s draft into Cedric Coward, who is super intriguing despite being injured early in his only major-college season.  A .700+ TS% in that small sample size and a 7’2.25″ wingspan (eat that, Bane!) didn’t hurt his draft prospects.  I don’t even care about their two crappy second round selections (though, hey, a tiny shout-out to Jahmai Mashack for making it to Mr. Irrelevant despite the odds), this is about turning a pretty valuable player like Bane into Asset City.  Which they did.  I think in the end the Grizz come out way ahead on this one.

SAC

Sacramento Kings

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #42 (DV 6%, 26th), 2027 1st (SAS prot 1-16)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Nique Clifford (#24), Maxime Raynaud (#42)
Obligatory Commentary: Yes, yes, purple-colored glasses.  This draft may turn out to be really fucking good.  The Kings came in with nothing but a crappy second-rounder after losing their top-12 protected first rounder at #13 (insult to injury!) and in a not-unprecedented (see: Tyrese Haliburton) but still seemingly unlikely scenario were able to get Maxime Raynaud (consistently mocked in the 20s) at #42, because he wanted to land with the Kings.  Raynaud, of course, is an offensively-talented big man who can rebound, but whose defense was in serious question – at least until the last couple of months of his senior year when the Cardinal decided to let him try to block shots instead of asking him to be ground-bound on D.  It seems that maybe he can play D as well.  We know he can rebound.  Give him a year or two and he may step in as Sac’s primary backup C.  If he’s the answer, what’s the question?  But that’s not all!  The Kings also took the worst chunk out of a future pick they got from San Antonio in the cursed Fox trade and moved into the first round to get their guy – Nique Clifford, the Big Purple Dawg.  Clifford may be the most well-rounded player we’ve seen in a long time.  He does everything well.  Defense, shooting, passing, rebounding, steals, blocks…  His best NBA comp is…his new head coach Doug Christie.  Look, neither of these guys are likely to become all-stars, but both are almost certain to become rotation contributors, maybe even starters for a while.  You pull that out of #42 and the back half of a future pick, and that’s a big fucking win.

WAS

Washington Wizards

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #6, #18, #40 (DV 77%, 5th), Jordan Poole (2/$66), Saddiq Bey (2/$12.5)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Tre Johnson (#6), Will Riley (#21), Jamir Watkins (#43), CJ McCollum (1/$31), Kelly Olynyk (1/$13.4), 3 Future 2nds
Obligatory Commentary: Honestly, I really like the pre-draft trade the Wizards made.  They sent out a crappy guard and an OK forward both on two-year deals and got a better guard and an OK center both on one-year deals, and it only cost them #40.  They saved $47M and came out with the better players!  For #40?!?  What a steal!  Then, in the draft, they grabbed an in-range player at #6.  Sure, I don’t love Tre Johnson – he’s actually a heck of a player and a better shooter but yells at his teammates too much for my liking – but I can’t deny he’s decent value at #6, especially since the Wizards had their wet dream of Ace Bailey snatched out from beneath them by the Jazz.  Will Riley seems like a fantastic opportunity at #21. The kid needs a good retinoic acid prescription, but wings his size and athleticism don’t grow on trees and by my estimation there were eight teams in front of the Wiz who would have been better off taking Riley than the guy they tabbed.  I’m not too high on Watkins, but they grabbed him in the mid-40s and the rest of the work they did was stellar, so I can overlook that one flaw.

HOU

Houston Rockets

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #10, #59 (DV 39%, 13th), Jalen Green (2/$69 + po), Dillon Brooks (2/$43), 4 Future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kevin Durant (1/$55)
Obligatory Commentary: Push everything you have in this draft and two players into the pot, come back with one year of Kevin Durant and take a shot at it all.  Seems to be a pretty decent play.  That said, Durant is reaching that age where talent begins to lose the battle to Father Time.  But then again, the only assets anybody will regret here are going to be #10 (Maluach shouldn’t have fallen that far anyway) and maybe Jalen Green, whom Houston apparently has grown tired of.  Durant, Amen, Sengun, Jabari, Reed, Tari, VanVleet with some Whitmore and some Steven Adams…that’s a contender.  Winner?  Dunno.  But definitely a contender.  For one year.

IND

Indiana Pacers

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #23, #54 (DV 19%, 18th), Mojave King (stale draft rights), Future 2nd, $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kam Jones (#38), Taelon Peter (#54), 2026 1st (IND, returned)
Obligatory Commentary: The Pacers were on track to be one of only two teams to come into the draft with all of their own picks and nothing else…and then a week before the draft they shipped off #23 to get their own pick from 2026 back.  This was actually somewhat useful for Stepien purposes and was (at the time) probably also a decent gamble.  But that was before Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals and basically tanked their season next year.  All of a sudden, that 2026 pick looks a LOT better than #23 this year.  And that’s what this year’s grade is going to be about, because the Pacers didn’t do fuck-all in the selections.  Kam Jones is a nice G-League player.  Nobody even knows who Taelon Peter is.  Even Sam Vecenie was caught napping on that guy.  But turning #23 into a G-Leaguer and a likely lotto pick next year, that’s a win, even if they didn’t know it when they did it.  To be fair, maybe they did know.  I mean, the talk when Hali hurt his calf in, what, Game 5? was that he shouldn’t play on it because the risk of an Achilles tear goes way up…but he wanted to play and they let him play on it anyway.  Now, I don’t recall if that trade came before or after the original calf injury, and I’m not looking it up, so let’s just pretend it was after and give Indy Promethean credit.  I like being generous.  Sometimes.

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #13, #22 (DV 46%, 9th), Terance Mann (3/$47), Niang (1/$8.2)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Asa Newell (#23), Kristaps Porzingis (1/$31), 2026 1st (best of NOP/MIL)
Obligatory Commentary: Porzingis had some minor surgery on his leg after the playoffs, but should be ready to go for the regular season.  So the Hawks basically shaved $24M in future money and got the best player out of the deal.  With the Celtics out of the picture next season, it’s probably time for everybody in the East to take a shot, and this is as good a start as any for Atlanta.  They kicked their #13 down the road (not necessarily a great move) for a potentially good pick (so maybe a great move) and then grabbed their probable target at #13 all the way down at #23.  I’m not killer high on Newell, but he’ll play for a bit.  If the Pelicans bomb (likely) and hit the lottery (possible) this may turn out to be a miracle of a draft, but for now it’s just pretty good.

BOS

Boston Celtics

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #28, #32 (DV 22%, 17th), Jrue Holiday (3/$104), Kristaps Porzingis (1/$31)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Hugo Gonzalez (#28), Amari Williams (#46), Max Shulga (#57), Anfernee Simons (1/$28), Georges Niang (1/$8.2), 4 Future 2nds
Obligatory Commentary: Scuttlebutt on the Holiday/Simons and PorkZinger/Niang trades is that Boston saved $200M on their future tax bills thus far, and seeing as Tatum is one of the Achilles Troika, they’re not competing next year anyway.  And, on top of that, these deals are worth about $99M in salary savings.  This really does feel like a $300M no-brainer.  The Celtics have a veritable stable of new players/draft rights but outside of a side-eye aimed at the good-passing big man Amari Williams I doubt anybody amounts to more than a hill of beans in this crazy world.  Still, saving money was the name of the game this year, and like George W. Bush said, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #49, #58 (DV 6%, 24th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Tyrese Proctor (#49), Saliou Niang (#58)
Obligatory Commentary: Look, I have less than zero idea who Cat Ballou Niang is, but I am pretty confident that Tyrese Proctor is worth something more than the #49 pick in this crappy draft.  Yes, he’s too skinny, and yes, maybe he’s watched too much Crocodile Dundee and The Man From Snowy River, but, bro, he’s probably worth a late first, and has been since his freshman season.  All he needs is a little HGH and he’s a monster in the league, right?  Well, maybe not, but all things considered I like Proctor as a long-term contributor more than I like Thiero, and the Cavs and the Lakers were coming from basically the same position. so I’ll slot the Cavs right in front…

LAL

Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #55 (DV 3%, 29th), $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Adou Thiero (#36)
Obligatory Commentary: I don’t know if Thiero sticks, but he’s got as good a chance as any second rounder.  He can’t really score, but he’s as athletic as all get-out, and he leaves it all on the floor.  He was pretty consistently mocked in the mid 30s, and so for the Lakers to grab him for #55 (useless) and some cash (superfluous, relatively) is a pretty nice move.  Next-to-last overall draft value, nowhere near next-to-last overall draft result.  Even if Thiero bombs this draft isn’t close to the bottom five.  Hey, I wish nothing but the worst for the Lakers.  Every time they’re on the downswing they get gifted the next great thing for no apparent reason.  This time around it was Luka.  But regardless of that, this draft was aggressively competent, and I will reward them for it.  (Reminder: the award for aggressive competence under my rules is “better than a C”.)

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #3, #35 (DV 70%, 7th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: V.J. Edgecombe (#3), Johni Broome (#35)
Obligatory Commentary: The Sixers are the one and only team to come into the draft with exactly the picks Stern gave them, nothing more, nothing less.  They proceeded to make absolutely no transactions on the (two) night(s) and as a consequence they get the coveted “No Trades!!” award!  That’s definitely worth bumping them a half-grade no matter where they land.  As far as that goes…I can’t really give them a lot for grabbing Edgecombe #3.  First off, we know the rule.  Second, I’m pretty sure Edgecombe wasn’t the best value available.  Good athlete, yes.  Not sure he’s much of a basketball player.  But at least he’s named Edgecombe and not Jedgecombe.  Broome cuts the other way for me.  The vast majority of draftheads hated him, despite his obvious skills, because his game and athleticism were apparently not a great match for the NBA.  But here’s the thing: I don’t think he fails.  He’s not going to be a superstar, but why is he worse than the similar (but much-less-well-established) Thomas Sorber?  He’s already everything we hope Sorber might be…and he goes 20 picks later.  So, in summary, we can go full SAT and say Broome:Value::Edgecombe:Ehhhhhhh?

GSW

Golden State Warriors

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #41 (DV 6%, 25th), Justinian Jessup (stale draft rights)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Alex Toohey (#52), Will Richard (#56)
Obligatory Commentary: This wasn’t a particularly exciting draft night in the Bay.  The Warriors started with nothing, they made a trade, they ended with…mostly nothing?  I don’t imagine Will Richard amounts to much at the NBA level, NCAA championship or no.  Toohey, Toohey, Black-and-Bluey has a bit of size for a wing-ish guy, but simply being Australian doesn’t make him Joe Ingles.  If he pans out, great!  But this draft is probably Little Ado About Less for the Warriors.  They have bigger problems than they can solve with the #41 anyway.  The funny thing is, when I consider what the Kings managed starting with only the #42, I begin to wonder if this rates a C after all…but then I realize that I’m down on what a lot of teams did this year.

DET

Detroit Pistons

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #37, (DV 7%, 22nd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Chaz Lanier (#37)
Obligatory Commentary: Chaz Lanier can shoot, and maybe he’ll beat the generally bad draft rap and make himself into a player.  Probably not, but he’s a decent gamble and when you don’t have much in the way of picks to start with, hey, I can’t complain too much.  But this draft for the Pistons sure as hell wasn’t very exciting, but it was at least marginally better than sitting the draft out entirely.  As we shall soon see.

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #1 (DV 97%, 2nd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cooper Flagg (#1)
Obligatory Commentary: Shockingly, the Mavericks went with Cooper Flagg here. Nobody really saw that coming.  I didn’t write this up two weeks ago.  I promise.  Of course, the real controversy here isn’t who they picked, it’s how they got there.  It’s not all that often that a team with a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery comes away with the #1 overall pick.  It’s really, really, not that often that said event occurs following a shocking trade deadline deal where the team inexplicably sends a superstar to the Lakers for kinda scraps.  You know, the kind of deal where nobody can understand why it ever happened and you see pictures of Dallas fans burning jerseys and the like…only to nail the #1 overall pick a few months later.  Still, I’m definitely not on Team Conspiracy here – not that it isn’t a compelling story, it’s just that nobody can remotely explain to me how the league could pull off such a heist.  The balls are drawn in front of team representatives and the damn video’s on YouTube.  The machine is made of clear plastic. You can scream “magnets!” (yeah, not happening) all you want, the only real possibility is straight up sleight of hand.  And even then, you’ve gotta have a decent number of people in on it – people who could really cash in by telling their story.  Nope, the Mavs captured the Flagg with dumb luck.  And then they sat the rest of the draft out.  They grabbed the best player with the best pick and then took their ball and went home.  That is the definition of a C by my well-established criteria, and the only question is whether they fall as the first or second of the two no-valence average grades.  And you know what?  I’ll give them the higher one because 1) Cooper Flagg, and 2) I want the Knicks and Bucks grades right next to each other.  OK, it’s really #2, not gonna lie.

NYK

New York Knicks

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #50 (DV 4%, 28th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Mohamed Diawara (#51), $$
Obligatory Commentary: The #50 pick, when that’s all you have, is crap.  The Knicks magically turned it into…crap, one pick lower than originally scheduled.  And got some cash for their trouble.  Actually, that’s not bad.  Not great, but not bad. Congrats.

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #47 (DV 5%, 27th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bogoljub Marković (#47)
Obligatory Commentary: Umm, he’s a Euro.  The Bucks were in a running battle with the Knicks for the prize of “Who Gets The Better Grade For Drafting A Nobody With A Crap Pick”, but then the Knicks went and squeezed some cash out of it and rose to the top.  Sorry, Bucks!

DEN

Denver Nuggets

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, 30th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: No additional assets
Obligatory Commentary: A long, long time ago, one of my cousins (and, let’s be honest, genetically my half-brother!  Weird!) had a walk-on part in an indie-ish film known as Things To Do In Denver When You’re Dead.  He was ahead of his time.  I don’t know what Denver was doing during this draft, but I can damn well tell you that they were dead.  I hope they didn’t even set up a draft room and instead went up to Lake Granby and rented a Tiki Boat.  I’ve done this with the boys.  It was worth every penny.

MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #17, #31 (DV 32%, 16th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Joan Beringer (#17), Rocco Zikarsky (#45), 2 Future 2nds, $$
Obligatory Commentary: Can’t say I know anything about Beringer, as I’m pretty much 100% opposed to doing mix-tape scouting. Full games or nothing!  Well, I don’t get full games of EuroLeague or wherever Beringer was playing.  He’s a medium-sized center, I’m not excited when you’ve already got Gobert and Julius “big Knick on my hood” Randle in your front line.  Then, coming into the second round the Wolves commanded Day 2 of the draft, with a pretty obvious pick just sitting there for them to take.  But instead of just doing it they instead ran the Rasheer Fleming Sweepstakes, which seems unlikely to work out, and only ended up getting them some future seconds and a giant Aussie who will (presumably) be the second-tallest player in the league (behind Edey) if he actually ever makes the league.  Again, this just does not seem like an area of need for the Wolves.

CHI

Chicago Bulls

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #12, #45 (DV 37%, 14th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Noa Essengue (#12), Lachlan Olbrich (#55), $$
Obligatory Commentary: If five years ago you told me that Chicago’s 2025 draft picks would anagram to “No-Soil Anus Breach Challenge”…I would totally have believed you, because nobody could possibly make that shit up.  As you can tell, I have no fucking clue who either of these guys are.  Did Chicago?  Probably not.  When teams draft a couple of foreign guys nobody has ever heard of, it never works for them…but maybe it will work for the bUllS.

CHA

Charlotte Hornets

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #4, #33, #34 (DV 75%, 6th), Mark Williams (1/$6.3)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kon Knueppel (#4), Liam McNeely (#29), Sion James (#33), Ryan Kalkbrenner (#34), 2029 1st (PHX??)
Obligatory Commentary: Can you milk me?  You know, the funny thing is that I don’t really *hate* anything that the Hornets did in this draft.  I just don’t really *like* much of it at all.  Knueppel is actually a solid player – but he’s not exactly #4 overall quality.  I think back to a recent – and somewhat disparaged – #4 overall pick in Keegan Murray, and I find it hard to believe that Knueppel will outdo Keegan in anything – anything – outside of shooting.  And that’s a maybe.  Kon should be a solid roleplayer with a really high floor, but that’s not the dude you grab at #4.  Now, we don’t know that Ace Bailey didn’t give Charlotte a Fuck Off ultimatum, but with Brandon…umm…Miller – in tow it’s not exactly a stretch to imagine that Bailey didn’t want to get stuck behind him on the depth chart.  Now, that would be an indictment of Ace and his self-confidence but no matter.  Still, Knueppel as the pick is a bit of a concession.  McNeely may have actually been drafted below his projected slot, but I don’t think he was a value – kid didn’t pop for me, the kind of guy who makes you dream of Larry Bird but wake up to find you’re sleeping next to Kyle Korver’s retarded brother.  Sion James was able to play well surrounded by one of the most talented teams in the country (#1, #4, #10, and an ill-deserved #49) but dude’s spotter physiognomy may not play well in the league.  Kalkbrenner might – might – be the saving grace here, but he’s not exactly the prototype of an NBA athlete.  There’s a reason that he didn’t declare for the draft last year, and as much as you’d like to claim it was that sweet, sweet Creighton NIL money…it was probably because NBA teams weren’t overenthusiastic.  That said. he’s damn well tall, and that’s undeniably worth something.  Worth what?  Umm…not much, especially if he’s the guy that’s supposed to take over for Mark Williams’ minutes next year.

LAC

Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #30, #51 (DV 15%, 21st), $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (#30), Kobe Sanders (#50)
Obligatory Commentary: Wait, the Clippers spent cash to move up ONE SLOT in the second round to pick KOBE SANDERS?  Like the Knicks were sure to snap THAT guy up!?!  And on top of that, they apparently wasted their #30 pick on Niederhauser, who has the size and athleticism, but seems to lack the skill to really make a difference in the NBA.  Does any of this make sense?  No.  But they’re the Clippers, so…

TOR

Toronto Raptors

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #9, #39 (DV 47%, 8th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Collin Murray-Boyles (#9), Alijah Martin (#39)
Obligatory Commentary: Two picks, two reaches…and then one day after the draft the Raptors fire wunderkind Masai Ujiri following a pretty critically-acclaimed career.  No relation between these events, I’m sure.  Alijah Martin has hops for days, but really nothing else that would recommend himself to a pick in the 30s.  Murray-Boyles is, in my eyes, a P.J. Washington clone, undersized, wingspan for days, roleplayer ceiling.  At #9 that’s a disaster, especially with Maluach on the board, whether you’ve got Poeltl on your roster or not. That’s just not a good usage of draft assets.  Now, a couple of days later finalizing this and I’ve seen a clip that appears to be Rich Paul on the phone telling Ishbia that he’s going to steer Maluach away from the Raptors at #9 so that he falls to the Suns at #10.  But either way, whether the Raptors passed on Maluach organically, or whether they got strongarmed into doing so, doesn’t help the grade.

PHX

Phoenix Suns

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #29, #52 (DV 15%, 20th), Kevin Durant (1/$55), 2029 1st (PHX??)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Khaman Maluach (#10), Rasheer Fleming (#31), Koby Brea (#41), Jalen Green (2/$69 + po), Dillon Brooks (2/$43), Mark Williams (1/$6.3)
Obligatory Commentary: The Suns had a giant prelude to the draft in shipping out the unhappy Kevin Durant.  Same Ishbia, Different Day.  I get that Kevin Durant had to go.  But the Suns didn’t do themselves a lot of favors in the return here.  They brought in a shooting guard who, as of now, may have to play the point while sporting a career A/T of about 1.4, and another – let’s be honest – shooting guard who might have to play PF.  They got a whole one first-round pick back (their own #10), and they didn’t even manage to shed any salary.  They’re still over the second apron and on track to pay $163M in tax for a team that doesn’t look like it’s making the playoffs.  They did somewhat better in the draft, to be fair.  Maluach should never have been available at #10, though that does make me question the immediate subsequent trade for the superfluous Mark Williams.  Following that, they blew through some of their remaining assets to win the Rasheer Fleming Sweepstakes (another move I approve of), and then they used their final remaining second round pick to grab…another SG?  They literally have seven SGs and not a single PG.  I have no fucking clue.  I mean, the value here is actually pretty good, particularly with regard to the draft picks.  But the build looks like Max Bialystock putting on Springtime For Hitler.  I mean, hell, maybe it works!  But it looks deliberately produced for failure.  If you had told me that a team was going to mess around, get Maluach at #10, Fleming at #31 and I was going to give them a D-, I’d have wondered what the hell else they did wrong.  Welp.

SAS

San Antonio Spurs

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #2, #14, #38 (DV 100%, 1st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Dylan Harper (#2), Carter Bryant (#14), Future 2nd, $$
Obligatory Commentary: Once again, I know exactly what I want to say about the Spurs and drafting, and I don’t need to repeat it.  Anyway, the #2 pick in this draft is a damned windfall, but the Spurs, who were already in possession of not one (Fox) but two (Castle) allegedly elite point guards, decided that they could do nothing but pass on the second of two potential franchise players in this draft for…a third PG in Dylan Harper?  I’m telling you, I watched enough Rutgers this year.  Bailey is the dude, not Harper.  Not saying that Harper is useless, but he’s just not franchise-level.  And I don’t know what a Spurs team with two high-value PGs already is doing drafting their third string dude at #2 overall.  But instead of taking the team need and potential franchise player in Bailey… But that’s not all!  The Spurs also had the #14 pick, and they used it on Carter Bryant, perhaps the most boring full-sized wing prospect in history.  I mean, if you’re supposed to be a late lotto pick, for the love of all that is holy at least show me one thing that is worthwhile.  The Spurs commanded the single-highest draft value in this draft, even higher that the Mavs (who had #1 overall, but nothing else).  They came away with straight ass, all things considered.  Robinson.  Duncan.  Parker.  Ginobili.  Leonard.  Wembanyama.  Six Draftees In Search Of Any Other Reason To Suggest This Franchise Is Remotely Good At It.

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #15, #24, #44 (DV 46%, 11th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Thomas Sorber (#15), Brooks Barnhizer (#44), 2027 1st (SAS prot 1-16)
Obligatory Commentary: The Thunder are the NBA champs, and that’s all that really matters. But let’s be honest.  They had some solid value in this draft and they pissed it all away.  Sorber is a throwback – a slow-footed post player in an era of switchable 4s.  Why he rose up the draft boards is anybody’s guess.  He’ll play a bit, but there was value at the #15 pick that the Thunder just walked away from.  Then, they took their value shot at the best all-around player in the draft (Clifford) at #24 and traded it for a future garbage pick.  Yes, I understand their roster is basically full, but Clifford is the kind of guy that can help any team, even if he has to come off the bench.  Did they grab him?  No.  They let him go to the Kings (thanks, Zombie Sonics!)  Then, they spent the #44 pick (a marginal pick, to be sure) on Brooks Barnhizer, which sure as fuck seems like a favor to somebody.  I can’t think about Brooks Barnhizer without thinking about physics thought experiments involving biplanes traveling at near-c speeds barnstorming and seeing length contraction turn into a “twin paradox” about whether or not the entire biplane fits inside the barn at once.  The answer, shockingly, is that Einstein was wrong.  There IS such a thing as a privileged reference frame, and that resolves all the relativity-related paradoxes.  And if you’re down six with only 1 second left on the clock and you’re inbounding under your own basket you can’t possibly win the game because if you throw the ball fast enough to score three points and earn yourself the chance at another possession with time on the clock, the ball will be traveling too fast to fit through the hoop.  But, in the end, there are two things that can’t travel at the speed of light: basketballs, and Thunder.  That’s why you start counting when you see the flash.  Is anything in this grade actually about the NBA draft?  I don’t think so.  Oh, well.

ORL

Orlando Magic

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #16, #25, #46, #57 (DV 45%, 12th), Cole Anthony (2/$26), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2/$45), 2026 1st (PHX), 2028 1st (ORL), 2029 1st (ORL swap, prot), 2030 1st (ORL), 2 Future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Desmond Bane (4/$163), Jase Richardson (#25), Noah Penda (#32)
Obligatory Commentary: The Magic made the first trade of the offseason, and it was a doozy – they sent out FOUR unprotected firsts (and a swap) to bring back Desmond Bane, who is apparently way more valuable than somebody like De’Aaron Fox.  Oh, wait, no it’s just that Bane and his agent didn’t go on a media blitz to tank his value and force a trade to a single destination, that’s all. But when you’re talking about that level of draft compensation, you’ve gotta get something more than the wingspan of a turkey.  You’ve gotta get a guy who can tie his own shoes.  I mean, it’s been at least a week and I’m still shaking my head at this trade from the Orlando side.  But it’s not like the Magic did themselves any favors with the rest of their assets on draft night.  They spent their remaining first rounder on Jase Richardson, who has a better pedigree than a labradoodle, but not much else to recommend him.  Then they went and consolidated a ridiculous amount of second-round assets on Noah “Four Picks” Penda.  I mean, you know, there’s a decent shot they could have picked up Penda with #46, but instead they sent off the remainder of their picks in the draft (and two more) to get a guy who’s one vowel away from being a giant raccoon.  The Magic sure seem to have been a team on the rise, but I’m not sure this year’s draft helped them one whit.

POR

Portland Trailblazers

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #11 (DV 34%, 15th), Anfernee Simons (1/$28)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Hansen Yang (#16), Jrue Holiday (3/$104), 2028 1st (ORL), one Big-Time Favor owed by Brad Stevens
Obligatory Commentary: Good heavens, Portland. Are you still trying to win? You’ve got an overdeveloped sense of vengeance. It’s going to get you into trouble someday.  Like today, when you picked up three expensive years of Jrue Holiday to lead a lottery team.  Well, there’s probably a lesson to be learned here, someday.  Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of the contract.  Boston desperately needed to dump salary to save on their huge tax bill seeing as Tatum did that popular Achilles thing, and Portland just popped up and said “we’re open for business!”  That Holiday contract could have been useful for a contender, instead of a bum, which is what Portland is, let’s face it.  Sure, they had been desperately trying to get rid of Simons, but he only had a year left on his deal and now they’ve tied up that money for three.  Then, they moved down a few spots in the draft to grab a second-round guy?  The last time I was in Portland, I went to the Full Sail restaurant for lunch (a fancy place, though I understand they have a brewpub somewhere out by Mount Hood where they do the actual good work) and unknowingly passed on the specialty Fritz with my first beer.  Well, my companion on the trip did go for the Fritz, and after one shared sip, I regretted it more than I’ve ever regretted another beer, but seeing as I was driving the afternoon leg I couldn’t justify a second pint.  But the Portland front office?  They seem to be on the Fritz, all right.

BRK

Brooklyn Nets

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #8, #19, #26, #27, #36 (DV 96%, 3rd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Egor Demin (#8), Nolan Traore (#19), Drake Powell (#22), Ben Saraf (#26), Danny Wolf (#27), Terance Mann (3/$47), 2 Future 2nds
Obligatory Commentary: When you have three picks at the bottom of the first round, why exactly do you eat the contract of Terance Mann to get another one?  Can you explain this to me?  Because no team has space for 5 first-rounders.  Not even an expansion team.  Lordy.  And the entire world said “Hey, bro, the Nets are going to obviously make some more trades because that’s too many picks” and…nope, they not only used all four of their original first-round picks, they traded for another one.  And the whole damn thing licks a sweaty dick outside of Egor Demin, who was probably available at #19 after all that garbage.  If I was less drunk I could prosaically tell you just how much I hate this draft, but given the situation: fucketh thiseth drafteth.  I think that’s Middle English.  Pretty sure.

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #7 (DV 46%, 10th), C.J. McCollum (1/$31), Kelly Olynyk (1/$13.4), 2026 1st (IND), 2026 1st (best of NOP/MIL), Future 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jeremiah Fears (#7), Derik Queen (#13), Micah Peavy (#40), Jordan Poole (2/$66), Saddiq Bey (2/$12.5), Mojave King (stale draft rights), Zion Williamson and some r-word allegations
Obligatory Commentary: OK, I can’t see what the Pellies are doing here.  They voluntarily took on the contract of Jordan Poole in a C.J. McCollum downgrade and subjected themselves to an extra year of salary (for both Poole and Bey) to do it, with the only cookie being…#40?  In this draft?  (OK, to be honest, #40 in any draft?)  I mean, that’s your play?  (Spoiler…the Pelicans used that #40 on…Micah Peavy, a doofus who has finally used his fifth year of eligibility and as such has finally entered the draft after bouncing through three schools and five draft flirtations…my goodness, I’m so SICK of this kid at this point, and bro ain’t any good.)  The Pelicans also traded away next year’s Indiana pick (back to Indiana via the proverbial long and winding road) for #23 in this iffy draft (yeah, those stale rights to Mojave King can’t be worth much, other than a touch-piece in some other trade).  And then Tyrese Haliburton went and tore his Achilles a few days later, making next year’s Indy pick a goldmine.  Too bad it’s Indy’s again!  And you’ve got Zion, accused of non-consensual mating behaviors in a court of law.  I see a dog at a table in a burning room saying “This is fine.”  But wait, that’s not all!  The Pellies used their #7 pick on Jeremiah Fears, who is going to be lucky to be the fourth-best PG in this draft. But wait, there’s more!  Remember how they gave up that 2026 Indy pick to get #23?  Well they turned around and gave up a 2026 best-of NOP/MIL first rounder to move up to #13. This means they gave up probably not one but TWO lotto picks next year – with NO PROTECTIONS – to get the #13 in this stinky draft.  Could it get worse?  Yes!  Because they used the #13 pick they overspent to get on Derik Queen, who is going to be lucky not to strangle his new NBA nutrition coach.  The Pellies have had a terrible week.  If I wanted to sabotage a franchise, I wouldn’t have done anything differently.

I have random ideas.  It happens.  And I might as well throw them out in to the ether where nobody will read them, right?

Today (well, technically, since yesterday, but I had to do a decent bit of work to see how it all played out) my random idea was how to change up NCAA March Madness, hopefully for the better.  Now, March Madness is already definitely great, so it’s not like there’s a lot that needs fixing, but things always get tweaked anyway, so I may as well get ahead of the curve and throw out some good ideas before the NCAA decides on some bad ones.

What can get solved?

So what are some of the issues with the tournament?  Let me throw some out there:

1) Power Conferences Get Too Many Bids

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If you look at the current Bracketology at ESPN – for reference, that would be the Feb. 14th 2025 update – you can see the following:

Now, we’ve still got several weeks of conference play and the conference tournaments yet to come, but as things stand right now, this is where the state of play is: seven conferences with multiple bids, and by subtraction, 24 single-bid conferences.  And let’s not forget that Joe Lunardi is generally pretty damn good at making these projections – not perfect, but pretty good – so we can take this as a reasonable snapshot of the situation.  And this snapshot tells me that three conferences are going to be responsible for 32 teams, which is only short of exactly half the field because they added four teams to the mix relatively recently in geological time.  The SEC has 16 members, and stands to get 14 teams into the tournament.  Now, I don’t actually believe that the SEC is that good at basketball relative to the other power conferences, but even if they were, the idea that a team can just be in the SEC and basically get a bid is kinda gross.  Oklahoma is 3-9 in conference play, and as of right now, Lunardi would give them the nod.  There’s a big haves vs. have-nots going on here, and I don’t think it’s good for college basketball.

2) Autobids For The Smallest Conferences Result In Kinda Lame Games

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Yes, we all know that Virginia lost as a #1 seed to UMBC back in 2018 – the first time that it had happened.  Yes, FDU downed Purdue five years later.  Yes, it was exciting.  But in general the #1 seed has a 154-2 record against their first opponent so there’s not a whole lot of drama there.  If we go to #2 seeds, their record against #15 seeds is 145-11.  What this means, in terms of watching the tournament, is that there are 8 games a year that can basically be ignored.  Sure, you keep your eye on the scoreboard and if things are close late then you’ve gotta check it out, but really there’s about a 4% chance that any given 1/16 or 2/15 game is an upset, which comes out to only once every three years.

So the teams that would be 16 seeds as of today – the Quinnipiacs and Southeast Missouri States, the Americans and the Southerns – are basically relegated to one-and-done.  Well, in a sense, not quite, because the First Four games mean that the four very lowest-seeded teams have to play each other just to earn the privilege of getting smeared by a #1 seed.  Still, these games aren’t really treated as tournament games proper.  Nobody cares who wins, it’s almost as if they’re extensions of the conference tournaments, and the paper bracket passed around your office generally has both teams listed – Auburn is going to be playing Quinnipiac/Southern, and it doesn’t matter which team it is, you’re not picking against them.  And when Quinnipiac returns home in triumph saying, “Hey!  We won a tournament game!” everybody gives them a little golf clap and says under their breaths, “No, you didn’t.”  (It’s an interesting irony that the last two teams “in”, American and Southern, have the same names as conferences – not their own conferences, mind you, because that would be very weird.)

3) The Last Four Teams In Get Kinda Shafted

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It’s true!  Not only do they have to pace the floor, wondering if they’re going to make it off the bubble or not, but then when they do make it off the bubble they still have to play one of these play-in games?  Again, if these were “real” games then maybe it would mean something, but instead it really means that two teams that were supposedly saved from the bubble didn’t really get in after all.

4) There Aren’t Enough Games

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I mean, we can all agree on that, right?  Early round scrapping games are the best games there are, and we can totally use more of those.

What’s the proposal?

Thanks for asking!  I’m proposing a relatively simple two-pronged approach:

  1.  Increase the number of teams in the tournament to 88
  2.  Institute a tournament eligibility standard for at-large bids

One might ask, why 88 teams rather than any other number?  Well, for one thing, it gives us a reason to make a Back To The Future reference every time we talk about March Madness, and that on its own is worth the price of admission.  But realistically, it means that in order for the tournament to get squeezed into the standard power-of-two format (i.e., to get from 88 teams down to 64) that the top 40 teams (that is, the #1 to #10 seeds) get a bye out of the first round and the bottom 48 teams will play 24 games to get into the standard bracket.

I would dispense with the First Four silliness of having 6 #16 seeds and renumber, with seeds now going all the way to #22.  So that means that the #11 seeds would play the #22 seeds for the right to slot in against the #6 seeds in the bracket, and so on up to the #16 seeds playing the #17 seeds for the right to slot in against the #1 seeds.  These 24 games could be played, just like the current First Four games, on the Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the round of 64, though there would have to be three venues instead of just one, each venue holding four games a day (alternatively, there could be six venues, three on Tuesday and three on Wednesday, if that’s the way folks prefer).

The idea of teams having to be tournament-eligible might meet a bit more resistance, but it’s not like something similar hasn’t been implemented in college football.  Bowl eligibility is a thing now, so why shouldn’t we consider it for basketball?  As I pointed out above, it’s absolutely ludicrous that an Oklahoma team that is 3-9 in conference would be allowed to participate in the tournament regardless of their non-conference record.  My proposal is this: a team becomes tournament-eligible when their total conference wins (regular-season wins + conference tournament wins) comes up to at least half of their regular-season conference games.  Thus, in a 20-game schedule (e.g. the Big Ten) a team that went at least 10-10 in conference play, or a team that went 9-11 with one conference tournament win, or a team that went 8-12 with two conference tournament wins would be tournament-eligible.  In the case of an odd number of regular-season conference games (either scheduled that way, or due to a game being cancelled and not made up) then you gotta round up.  17 games?  You need 9 wins.

Of course, this only would apply to at-large bids.  Conference tournament winners, as now, would automatically qualify for the NCAA tournament regardless of their regular-season record.

What would this look like, in real terms?

Well, the first big consequence would be that only about half of the teams in any given conference will actually be tournament-eligible.  None of this 14-bids-for-16-SEC-teams under this proposal.  Now the number of eligible teams will obviously not be exactly half of the teams in each conference, because in such a small sample size records won’t be distributed normally, and because slightly sub-.500 teams will get a chance to lock in the necessary wins in their conference tournament.

I did want to know about what this would look like, so I went through the current standings, assigning a placeholder conference champion to the top team in each of the 31 conferences, and filled out the remaining 57 at-large bids with tournament-eligibility based on current conference records and seeding based on NCAA NET Rankings as of 2/15/2025. (Yes, I know that the Committee considers a lot more than just NET ranking, but I really didn’t want to play the subjectivity game here.) The results break conferences out into four fairly cleanly separated conference tiers.  The college basketball world likes to use the term “mid-major” for conferences that are below the standard Power-5 conference but above annual single-bid conferences, but I don’t really like it here, so I’ll go with a different designation.  Also…about that Power-5…

The Power-4 Conferences

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Yep, for this year at least, there’s a very big conference quality gap at a somewhat unexpected breakpoint.

  • SEC – 9 bids, all 9 getting byes to the round of 64
  • Big 12 – 9 bids, 7 getting byes
  • Big Ten – 7 bids, all 7 getting byes
  • Big East – 6 bids, 4 getting byes

So you can see that for the Power-4 conferences, as of today there would be 31 total bids.  The SEC would lose 5 bids, the Big Ten would lose 3, the Big 12 would gain 1 and the Big East would gain 2, relative to today’s Bracketology.  That’s 5 fewer bids for the Power-4, despite going from 68 teams to 88 teams generating 20 more actual bids.

The number that sets the Power-4 apart from the other conferences is the percentage of teams in the conference whose NET ranking would be high enough to secure an at-large bid if they were tournament-eligible.  In fact, only three teams total in these four conferences (one in the Big 12 and two in the Big East) had a lower NET rating than the final at-large teams selected in this process.  Generally, I would draw a line at about 75% – if 75% of your conference teams have an at-large-worthy NET rating, then you are a Power conference.  The Big East, at 82%, is the closest conference here to slipping.

The bottom line, however, is this.  Any Power-4 conference team that is tournament-eligible is in.  There’s no real bubbling around for these teams, just get enough conference wins and you’re in.

The Major Conferences

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The next tier of conferences corresponds exactly to the remaining multi-bid leagues in the current Bracketology, and this probably isn’t a coincidence.

  • ACC – 7 bids, 5 getting byes
  • Mountain West – 7 bids, 3 getting byes
  • WCC – 5 bids, 2 getting byes

These conferences would be getting a major boost from this proposal.  Instead of 8 total bids, they have 19.

For the Major conferences, again, every tournament-eligible team had a high enough NET rating and got in to March Madness.  Still, in these conferences, only slightly more than half of all teams (55%-64%) had NET ratings high enough, so it would at least be conceivable, if unlikely, to be tournament-eligible but to slide off the bubble from a Major conference.

The Mid Conferences

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Not Mid-Major, just “Mid”, like, you know, Margot Robbie.  What distinguishes a Mid conference here is being a multi-bid conference where fewer than 40% of your league’s teams have a high enough NET rating to earn an at-large bid.

  • American – 3 bids, 1 getting a bye
  • Atlantic-10 – 4 bids, 1 getting a bye
  • Big West – 2 bids, 1 getting a bye
  • Conference USA – 3 bids, no byes
  • Missouri Valley – 3 bids, no byes
  • Summit – 2 bids, no byes
  • Sun Belt – 3 bids, no byes
  • WAC – 2 bids, no byes

In today’s Bracketology, these 8 conferences are all one-bid leagues, but here they score a total of 22 bids, an additional 14 bids!  It’s important to note, however, that 8 of the last 10 teams in came from these conferences, so they’re in some ways not just bubble teams, but bubble conferences.  The Summit, the Sun Belt, and the WAC are all just a few bid steals from being single-bid leagues. Under this proposal, by the way, “bid steal” teams are more likely to be teams that sneak into tournament-eligibility by winning a game or two in the their conference tournament than to be teams that unexpectedly win the entire conference tournament – making for a new and fun dynamic around conference tournament time that I’ll come back to later.

The Single-Bid Conferences

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Sixteen conferences are weak enough that even this proposal doesn’t do them much good:

  • America East
  • ASUN
  • Big Sky
  • Big South
  • Coastal Athletic Association
  • Horizon
  • Ivy
  • MAAC
  • MAC
  • MEAC
  • Northeast
  • Ohio Valley
  • Patriot
  • Southern
  • Southland
  • SWAC

None of these conferences earned a bye, and obviously none of their teams earned an at-large bid.

So Tell Me About That New First Round

OK!

There are 48 teams in this first round.  Only 4 of these teams come from Power-4 conferences.  Another 9 come from Major conferences, and 19 come from Mid conferences, leaving 16 from one-bid leagues.

Recall that Quinnipiac, Southeast Missouri State, Southern and American were the last four teams in.  Under the actual tournament as it stands, these teams, with NET ratings of 185, 187, 219, and 231 would play each other in the First Four for the dubious right to play against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country.  Instead, under this proposal, they get to match up against San Diego St., Villanova, Xavier, and Santa Clara, teams with NETs between 50 and 55.  Now they’ve got a puncher’s chance of winning a game that actually means something – and if they do, instead of immediately facing off with a #1 seed, they get a #6 seed.  The Cinderella potential here climbs a decent amount.

What about the new bubble teams?  As it turns out in this exercise, the final bubble teams end up with #18 and #19 seeds, so they will face #15s and #14s.  Around the turn, the games would look like this:

  • #16 Akron (NET 89) vs. #17 High Point (NET 90) –> #1 seed
  • #16 Lipscomb (87) vs. #17 Arkansas State (91) –> #1 seed
  • #16 St. Joseph’s (85) vs. #17 Northern Iowa (96) –> #1 seed
  • #16 Stanford (84) vs. #17 Grand Canyon (97) –> #1 seed
  • #15 Bradley (82) vs. #18 South Dakota State (100) –> #2 seed
  • #15 Oregon State (79) vs. #18 Troy (101) –> #2 seed
  • #15 TCU (77) vs. #18 Middle Tennessee (102) –> #2 seed
  • #15 Dayton (74) vs. #18 UNLV (105) –> #2 seed
  • #14 Kansas State (73) vs. #19 Florida Atlantic (106) –> #3 seed

Florida Atlantic, under the criteria set forth, would be the last at-large bid at the time of writing.

How Well Does This Address The Issues Above?

So now that we’ve gone through the proposal, and seen what it actually would look like in action, did we effectively address any of my concerns above?

1) Power Conferences Get Too Many Bids

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As noted above, Power conferences get 5 fewer bids, but because there are 20 more bids than before, their share goes down by even more.  In terms of share change, we have the following:

  • Power conferences represent 35% of teams, down from 53% (-18%)
  • Major conferences represent 22% of teams, up from 12% (+10%)
  • Mid conferences represent 25% of teams, up from 12% (+13%)
  • One-Bid Conferences represent 24% of teams, unchanged

Before you freak out about Mid conferences now having more teams than Major conferences, don’t forget that there are only three Major conferences but 8 Mid conferences.  The average Power conference has 7.75 bids, the average Major conference has 6.3 bids, and the average Mid conference has 2.75 bids.  This seems like a good balance between Power/Major/Mid teams to me, giving the lesser conferences a bit more opportunity, all by simply requiring (something like) a .500 record in-conference to participate.  Seems fair.  Let’s be honest, nobody wants 14 SEC teams in the tournament.

(And before you freak out about that rounding error above in the percents, it’s a rounding error.  I’m not giving tenths of a percent here, let’s get real.)

2) Autobids For The Smallest Conferences Result In Kinda Lame Games

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What you can see is that due to many teams being tournament-ineligible – 33 of them that would otherwise have met the NET criterion to be precise, extending as high in the NET ratings as #27 Ohio State (a #9 seed right now according to Lunardi) – the at-large pool extends down to right around 100 in the NET.  That means that in their first game, a #1 seed might have to face Stanford instead of Norfolk State.  A #2 seed might have to go through a TCU, or an Oregon State, or a UNLV instead of cruising past Central Connecticut State, or Bryant.  All of a sudden, the top seeds in the tournament don’t get an automatic walkover in the round of 64.  This is great!

But not only that, the first round games are basically all going to be competitive.  There’s a realistic chance for the Quinnipiacs of the world to pull off a meaningful upset, instead of just the opportunity to beat Southern in a ho-hum-these-teams-both-blow game before getting shuffled off the court by the contenders.

3) The Last Four Teams In Get Kinda Shafted

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Remember that thing where the last teams to get in (typically as #11 seeds) have to play other evenly-matched bubble teams, just for the chance to get to the round of 64?  Well, teams in this position (typically in the 40s or 50s in the NET) would now be likely to squeeze into a bye as a 9 or 10 seed, due to a few teams above them not getting enough conference wins.  They’re not even on the bubble!  And if they do have to play in the first round, instead of facing a team on equal footing, they’ll get one of the last auto-bids.  Sure, it shouldn’t be a cakewalk like it would be for the #1 seeds, but they now have a much easier road to the round of 64.

And the new bubble teams?  Those teams around 100 or so in the NET?  Well, they won’t have to worry about being just one spot too low to avoid the First Four – they’re going to be in the first round no matter what.  Are they a #17, or a #18, or a #19?  Doesn’t really matter, they’re kind of right at the turn, and the quality of their opponent isn’t going to change much if they get slotted a bit lower than they think they should be.  Obviously, there will still be teams that slip off the bubble, but when those teams are over 100 in the NET, it’s hard to feel bad for them.  As for the teams that didn’t make eligibility, well, they don’t even have a committee to blame, only themselves.

4) There Aren’t Enough Games

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24 more games!  Most of these games are going to be competitive, and the result will also be that round-of-64 games will be more competitive as well!  What more do I need to say?

On top of that, very late conference games and conference tournament games will gain a whole new level of interest, with teams in Power and Major conferences vying to become tournament-eligible.  Imagine Florida Atlantic fans having a major rooting interest in an Ohio State game because that one bid-stealing win in the Big Ten tournament might knock them off the bubble…  But that bid-steal win?  It doesn’t require Ohio State to improbably win the Big Ten championship, just to get one simple first-round win. There will probably be 20 or 30 teams whose tournament eligibility is going to come down to the last game or two, with the promise that if they get eligible, they’re basically in.  You can’t match that kind of drama with today’s system, and even better, it’s drama that unfolds in the week or two prior to the NCAA tournament.  You could see tournament-eligibility court storming!  You could have that Ohio State team that’s 9-10 in the Big Ten looking at one final conference game (is it a home game against a team that’s 5-14? is it a road game against a team that’s 17-2?) to seal their eligibility before a do-or-die game in the conference tournament.  Win, and you’re in, there’s really no need to worry about the committee.  Lose out, and it’s your fault that you have to consider that NIT invite. The drama level for early rounds in the conference tournaments just got turned up to eleven.  Who wouldn’t love that?

Can you imagine it?  Isn’t this a good idea?

Done this thirteen times before, so why not lucky #14? It’s the annual Draft Grades Thread! This year the draft was split over two days, which is both terrible and fantastic.  On the one hand, the second round is now going to actually get some legit love on the broadcast (even though it WAS at one in the afternoon).  But on the other hand, I did have to skip my Wednesday softball game.  And as long as we’re looking for “ugly” to round it out – you know somebody (somebody ended up being named Kyle Filipowski and Johnny Furphy) is going to get invited to the Green Room and then fall to the second round.  That’s gonna hurt.  (Of course I’m rooting for it!  What do you think I am, nice?)

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success? So much success!)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before/during the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades, though the new NBA policy of allowing teams to negotiate with their own free agents following the end of the NBA Finals – and the agreed-upon contracts announced before the draft – does throw a bit of a wrench into that whole thing.

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.  In the case of a traded pick, I will do my best to keep track of where first rounders came from, but in the event that a second rounder’s provenance is unclear (it often is) I’ll just give write it as “via NYK” and move on.  It’s a freaking second round pick.

Several years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a percentage value – so just like last year the Spurs, coming into the draft, have a strength of 100% and should be hoping to get the best value out of the draft (despite not having the #1 overall pick this year).  I’ve included this value as (DV xx%) following the listed picks.

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  (Once again while assigning placeholder grades to this draft I was convinced that I was nowhere hear balanced…and ended up with 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 7 Ds, and 5 Fs…basically a bullseye.)  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

The Grades:

MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #27, #37 (DV 18%, 20th), Wendell Moore (1/$2.5), 2030 1st (prot), 2031 1st
Assets At The End Of The Day: Rob Dillingham (#8), Terrence Shannon Jr. (#27)
Obligatory Commentary: AND MINNESOTA COMES INTO THE DRAFT WITH THE MOLEEDS PICKS! Very disappointingly, they traded #37 away, so we may never get to learn how many holes there are in the speaker part of a telephone.  I don’t even care if nobody understands that reference, because making a top-10 obscure reference of all time counts for something.  That said, Minny had a hell of a first day of the draft.  First, they traded two future picks that are likely to suck (one protected…though I’m not quite sure how this works under Stepien rules…) to grab a skinny Maxey/Fox clone (and this grades post’s eponym) and then they used #27 to grab a lotto-level super-senior whose value was artificially depressed by accusations (rejected in a court of law) that he was a bit too grabby with a girl in a bar.  Shannon is such a bucket he’s made of that kind of plastic that’s going to be begging to be biodegraded in the landfills several millennia from now.  With a metal handle.  And a far-more biodegradable plastic cylinder placed over the metal handle for a more comfortable grip.  (Which is exactly what Shannon’s accuser claims she would have preferred.)  Minny had the 20th-best draft value coming into the draft, and there’s no chance they’re going to end up outside the top five in returns, so it’s a great night even if day 2 was underwhelming – they simply sent away the #37 in order to get off of the admittedly small contract of Wendell Moore.  This, of course, should teach me not to gush over one dude again and again in the draft grades, because I think I told about 17 teams they should have drafted Wendell way back when.  Yeah, it’s good that I don’t care how dumb I look in hindsight.

IND

Indiana Pacers

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #36, #49, #50 (DV 14%, 24th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Johnny Furphy (#35), Tristen Newton (#49), Enrique Freeman (#50)
Obligatory Commentary: Like the Kings, the Pacers signed (agreed to a contract with) one of their own free agents in the new post-Finals period – but unlike the Kings, signing Siakam to a 4-year max was not incredibly surprising, and doesn’t really change how we look at the Pacers’ draft day work.  That work, as it is, consists of nothing but second round picks, so we probably shouldn’t expect all too much – but how about exceeding expectations?  I have no idea why Johnny Furphy fell from the Green Room to #35, but he did, and the Pacers rightly jumped all over that by jumping one spot in the draft (in exchange for Cash Money). I’m not a big fan of two-time national champion Newton at the next level, but Freeman out of Akron looks to be a potential diamond in the rough – a great athlete and amazing rebounder with a never-ending motor.  I wanted Freeman pretty badly, but the Kings ditched #45, so more power to Indiana!

POR

Portland Trailblazers

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #7, #14, #34, #40 (DV 78%, 3rd), Malcolm Brogdon (1/$22.5), 2029 1st (2nd of POR/BOS/MIL), two future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Donovan Clingan (#7), Deni Avdija (4/$55), future 2nds (via NYK)
Obligatory Commentary: I’m of the opinion that the league is shortly going to be moving to a bigger game as the pendulum naturally swings.  The Blazers, having pretty obviously struck out with DeAndre Ayton, are taking another shot with the bigger, and possibly more mobile (if not higher stamina) Clingan.  I like that shot (even if Edey dominated him in the Natty game).  On top of that, they tossed the #14 and a likely mid-20s future pick for Deni Avdija, who is on a really friendly extension and seems primed for a breakout.  While it’s obvious that one year of Scoot and two years of Shaedon haven’t quite turned out as hoped, the Blazers are, at the very least, setting themselves up for success.

PHX

Phoenix Suns

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #22 (DV 15%, 23rd), 2028 2nd (BOS, 31-45 prot.), What would have been pick #58 forfeited for tampering in the Drew Eubanks free agency
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ryan Dunn (#28), Oso Ighodaro (#40), 2026 2nd (DEN), 2031 2nd (DEN)
Obligatory Commentary: I guess it’s hard to press the Suns too hard – they’re basically stuck over the second apron of their own accord and every dollar saved is a dollar earned.  (Well, I mean except for tampering in the Drew Eubanks free agency.  Drew Eubanks?  Are you kidding me?)  Evidently, the Suns honed in on Ryan Dunn (consensus second rounder) and picked up some minor future assets to move back and select him for a slightly smaller contract.  You do what you gotta do, and when you look at the Durant/Beal/Booker roster the Suns have constructed, you’re not going to hurt yourself bringing in some solid defense, even if the guy can’t shoot a lick.  And while we’re looking at it that way, hard to hate on bringing in the best passing big man in college basketball.  It may take some time but I think both of these guys are going to actually help Phoenix, and possibly as soon as this year.

DET

Detroit Pistons

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #5, #53 (DV 50%, 7th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ron Holland II (#5), Bobi Klintman (#37), Wendell Moore (1/$2.5)
Obligatory Commentary: Holland is a pretty polarizing prospect.  Some people think he’s the best player in the draft, others think he’s not a player at all.  My view is that he’s the best to-the-basket player available, but he needs to fix his shot.  Fixing a shot is, famously, one of the easier things to do in the NBA, so the idea that this pans out isn’t too far-fetched.  If it does, Detroit has a head-start on the next generation of success.  If not, well, that wouldn’t be anything new, now, would it? (Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley, among others…)   Let’s hope, for Detroit’s sake, that Holland starts the turnaround.  The Pistons further took on the contract of Wendell Moore to move up 16 slots to put themselves into the range of the first-round penumbra.  Klintman hasn’t ever convinced me, but hey, there’s a chance – and in this draft the glimmer of hope is worth a good grade.

UTA

Utah Jazz

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #10, #29, #32 (DV 51%, 6th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cody Williams (#10), Isaiah Collier (#29), Kyle Filipowski (#32)
Obligatory Commentary: Last year, the Jazz drafted Taylor Hendricks, and when Hendricks didn’t immediately pan out they turned around and drafted him again in Cody Williams.  Cody is Jalen (the good one) Williams’ brother, and so everybody hopes that he’s going to pull the same rabbit out of the same hat. (Or hell, I don’t know, maybe it should be a different hat. But it should definitely be the same rabbit.)  Cody shot really well from deep on extremely low volume but spent a lot of his time standing around on the perimeter on offense and while he was injured for a bit it’s hard to excuse it with that.  He’s long and has defensive potential, but Cody has a long way to go before he’s a workable NBA player.  There was talk of him pushing 6’10”, but it turns out that he’s actually a schosh under 6’8″ in shoes, though his wingspan is pretty nice.  None of this quite adds up to #10, even in a weak draft.  On the PG side, Isaiah Collier is now officially the second Darius Garland to Collin Sexton.  Collier is a classic bowling-ball PG with the classic good drive and bad shot, but he does have pretty good court vision.  There was a time he was considered a top-5 pick in the draft but following a miserable season for USC (Andy Enfield’s last, as it turns out) that Collier was unable to resurrect, his stock fell.  It didn’t really fall all the way to 29-ish, but at some point it becomes about fit, and it looks like unlike other teams the Jazz are interested in a positional battle.  In the second round, the Jazz jumped all over the fallen Flip.  Flip’s tumble from lotto-potential to second round was evidently spurred by some irregularities in his personal life.  The rumor is that starting when he was in high school an older woman (she’s now 28, so this isn’t like a Macron deal) began grooming him into the LDS church and into a future husband, to the point that he’s now estranged from his parents and siblings.  This kinda threw teams for a loop – but not Utah!  Anyway, as long as off-the-court stays off-the-court, the Jazz got a winner here, and I would be unsurprised to see Flip turn out to be the best of the three players they nabbed.

CHI

Chicago Bulls

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #11 (DV 30%, 12th), Alex Caruso (1/$9.9)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Matas Buzelis (#11), Josh Giddey (1/$8.3)
Obligatory Commentary: The Bulls opened the bidding by sending the very solid role player Alex “Cancer Boy” Caruso to the Thunder for possible ephebophile Josh Giddey.  This would seem to indicate the beginning of a tank session, but to properly do such a thing, they need to find a taker for the unconscionable LaVine contract, a taker which they have yet to find.  They softened this blow by finding preseaon top-5 pick Matas Buzelis available at the #11 pick – Buzelis, who apparently spent time growing up in the Chicago area (his obvious Balkan heritage notwithstanding) is an ideal option for a team rolling the dice on the future.  His G-League Ignite season was reasonably disappointing, but the size and frame don’t completely lie (no idea about his hips), and if the Bulls can turn him into the next Peja they’ve obviously won the internet, so to speak.  The Bulls are set up to be bad for a while, but young players like Giddey and Buzelis may be what they need to eventually pull out of it.  Since they did it on purpose…I don’t hate it.

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #9, #39, #57 (DV 43%, 9th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Zach Edey (#9), Jaylen Wells (#39), Cam Spencer (#53)
Obligatory Commentary: The Grizz came in hot to trade up for Donovan Clingan…and failed.  So they did the next best they could: four letters and it begins with “E”.  Now, I’m not about to dig too hard on a Zach Edey pick as I was a strong advocate for selecting him at #13, countering the mocks that had him sitting generally in the early 20s.  Edey is not as slow as they say, he’s not out of shape like many think, and he put up advanced stats in college reserved for players like Zion Williamson and senior year Tim Duncan.  He’s coming into a league (and a conference) that is moving towards huge players in the post like Wemby and the aforementioned Clingan, and he obviously has a role.  Sucks to be DeAndre Ayton, I guess, but he’s got $70M coming over the next two years to ease his pain.  Sure, Edey is relatively limited and somebody’s going to come out of the subsequent picks (who knows, Williams, Buzelis, Topić, Carter, Carrington were the next five guys) and be a clearly better player, but he’s bound to be a rotation player and maybe a starter.  Not a risk, but likely a smart move.  With their second round picks, the Grizz went for shooting, but neither Wells or Spencer really shone for me.

SAC

Sacramento Kings

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #13, #45 (DV 31%, 11th), Davion Mitchell (1/$6.5), Sasha Vezenkov (1/$6.7), 2025 2nd (POR)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Devin Carter (#13), Jalen McDaniels (1/$4.7)
Obligatory Commentary: Yes, these are Draft Grades, but it’s going to be hard to look at what the Kings do here except in the light of the four-year, $78M deal they agreed to with their own free agent Malik Monk in the week before the draft.  (And yes, it’s fun to watch mock drafts jump from “they’re going to draft Dillingham to replace Monk” to “welp, they’re going big”.)  There was a lot of chatter that the Kings would trade the #13 pick to acquire a veteran, but in the end when Devin Carter fell (unexpected in most mocks from May forward) the Kings decided to stick with this year’s Derrick White.  And so, on the one hand, there was an obvious logjam at G with Monk and Fox and Keon and Davion and Huerter but on the other hand the Kings just picked up a defensive pest on the perimeter and freed themselves up to try (desperately) to trade small for big to balance out the roster.  That said, Carter was universally expected to go somewhere in front of the Kings’ pick and they are presumably ecstatic that he fell to them and willing to reshape the roster later.  Part of that reshape fell out just half an hour before the second round began, when the Kings sent out Sasha (didn’t ever break the rotation) and Davion (just got Devin Cartered) to Toronto for The Wrong McDaniels.  It was basically a salary dump, and the Kings had to throw in not only the #45 pick to do it, but also next year’s Portland 2nd, which is expected to be practically a first rounder…yikes.  Ugly, ugly salary dump that in the absence of a future move to utilize the apron space stings pretty hard.  Still, Carter will be in the rotation from day one, and at #13, that’s a good find.

ORL

Orlando Magic

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #18, #47 (DV 22%, t-17th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Tristan da Silva (#18), 2030/2031 2nd (NOP, swap)
Obligatory Commentary: A few years ago, the Magic selected Franz Wagner and the Kings were stuck with the leftovers to pick Davion Mitchell…this year the Kings returned the favor, selecting Devin Carter, while a few picks later the Magic were stuck with the leftovers to pick Tristan da Silva.  I don’t hate da Silva (outside of the fact that it’s nearly impossible, in real-time typing, to capitalize the Silva without also capitalizing the da) but for all his skills, he seems to go through the motions far too much for my taste.  Can he play?  Yes.  Does he have the size and athleticism?  Yes.  Does he have the fire of his obvious comparison Jaime Jaquez?  No.  Not at all.  Still, skill is skill, and while da Silva may never permanently step into a starting role, he should crack the rotation basically immediately, and at #18 that’s a decent return.

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #16, #41 (DV 26%, t-15th), What would have been pick #49 forfeited for tampering in the P.J. Tucker and Danuel House free agency
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jared McCain (#16), Adem Bona (#41)
Obligatory Commentary: Coming into this draft the Sixers needed shooting.  By drafting Jared McCain, they got shooting, but not much else.  Then, in the second round they got some big-time post athleticism in Adem Bona, but again not much else.  If they could put Bona and McCain into one of those teleportation pods from Jeff Goldblum’s The Fly, this would be an amazing draft.  In some respects, it’s still a job well done.  I guess there is the matter of that missing pick for ridiculously tampering in the free agencies of some players who never really mattered (did they matter more than Drew Eubanks???), but losing the #49 pick just isn’t a big deal, so the story is maybe less about the 76ers and more about the NBA policies having no teeth.

GSW

Golden State Warriors

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #52 (DV 3%, 28th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Lindy Waters III (1/$2.2t)
Obligatory Commentary: The Warriors somehow figured out a way to trade OUT of the #52 pick and picked up a veteran shooting guard you’ve never heard of named after a dance your parents have never heard of, but the fact is that he’s played 1276 minutes in the actual NBA over the past three years.  Now, that’s probably better than what they could have gotten out of the pick, but every year there are one or two guys at 52+ that end up going on to play more than that in their careers so you never know.

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #1 (DV 86%, 2nd), A.J. Griffin (1/$3.9)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Zaccharie Risacher (#1), Nikola Djurišić (#43)
Obligatory Commentary: All things considered, this has to be one of the most disappointing #1 overall picks of all time – the Hawks nailed the top pick from 3% odds only to find themselves faced with a draft bereft of talent at the top, no trade options, and no other picks on the day (OK, both days).  “Risacher and call it a day” is the motto, but I don’t think we’ll hear too many people chanting it anytime soon.  And of course, part of that is because the Hawks actually did make a next-day move to get another pick in the second round by sending off deadweight A.J. Griffin (kind of a nice move).  But I don’t think they can put much hope into Nikola Djurišić.  The real hope is that the second consecutive Frenchman taken #1 overall will actually succeed.  There are a good number of folks who have looked at “Baby, you’re a” Risacher “man” and concluded that he would not.  We shall see – but it’s at best a crappy bet.

MIA

Miami Heat

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #15, #43 (DV 27%, 14th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kel’el Ware (#15), Pelle Larsson (#44)
Obligatory Commentary: The problem with Kel’el Ware isn’t his size, it’s not his athleticism, it’s not even his ability (considering he has a pretty playable jumper), the problem is between the ears.  Like old friend Willie Cauley-Stein, Ware seems to have a problem with his motor that would require a nationwide recall if he were drafted by Detroit.  Luckily, he was drafted by Miami where the only thing they manufacture are pulled-pork sandwiches, which seems right in line with Ware’s proclivities.  With Adebayo signing a max three-year extension on the day of the draft…what role does an athletic pulled-pork sandwich have?  Maybe Miami is going to try to put them on the court together, but if not, what’s the play?  At #44, Larsson is vaguely interesting, but he’s going to have to navigate a long maze of housewares, beds, bookcases, and kitchen supplies just to get from the G-League to Miami.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #28, #56 (DV 13%, 25th), Reggie Jackson (1/$5.3), 2026 2nd, 2031 2nd, Three seconds (to CHA)
Assets At The End Of The Day: DaRon Holmes (#22)
Obligatory Commentary: On the first day, the Nuggets spent two seconds to jump six slots and secure DaRon “Rhymes with Richaun” Holmes.  Was it worth it?  I don’t know.  The Knicks had two picks in the middle of that range and were likely not even in the business of picking anybody, so there weren’t exactly a ton of alternate suitors for Holmes. On the other hand, two future seconds are a small price to pay to get your man.  Let’s assume that Holmes would not have been available at #28, and give the Nuggs credit for that.  Holmes himself is a tough call – an undersized big who has stretchability and who could have an impact anywhere between Kenneh Faried and Richaun Holmes when all is said and done.  Do they have an eye to ever play him next to Jokic?  Or is he pure bench fodder?  On the second day, the Nuggets spent three more seconds to offload the not-really-big Reggie Jackson contract, so if you’re wondering how the Nuggets feel about their salary cap situation, I think you have your answer.

LAL

Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #17, #55 (DV 22%, t-17th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Dalton Knecht (#17), Bronny James (#55)
Obligatory Commentary: If there’s any question about the quality of this draft, in the weeks leading up to the actual event the Pelicans had the option of either taking the #17 pick, or trying their luck on whatever first rounder the Lakers have in ’25 – and let’s keep in mind this is the Lakers, and they have AD and presumably LeBron – but the Pellies wanted to bet on next year anyway.  So the Lakers kept 17. Also, now that the Lakers have #17, they’re gonna do it, aren’t they?  They’re totally gonna do it.  …They didn’t do it.  But what they *did* do was allow their new coach J.J. Redick to fall on the sword of J.J. Redick clone Dalton Knecht.  On the bright side, the Lakers have not yet retired jersey #4, so at least that dream is still alive.  On the dark side, Knecht is basically Austin Reaves 2.0, and it’s only going to be flashy until everybody realizes that it isn’t.   Then finally, in the second round, the Lakers did what we all knew they were going to do – they selected LeBron James and his $51M player option in what was the most telegraphed #55 pick ever.  Sometimes, in rare instances, one is tempted to do the write-up for the #1 pick before the draft even happens, just to get a head start.  This is the one and only time one might be tempted to do the write-up for the #55 pick early.  I didn’t, but that’s just because I was lazy, not because I didn’t know exactly what was going to happen.  (It would be fun to say that what happened was agent collusion – and to an extent Woj reported that collusion, in the form of threats to go to Australia if any of the other 29 teams picked him, was surely attempted – but let’s be honest.  If the Lakers don’t draft Bronny, he goes undrafted, so is it really collusion?  If I convince you to watch a heist film where the laser-grid security scene is just an excuse to show off Catherine Zeta-Jones’ tush, is it really Entrapment?)  I kinda feel bad for Junior, as he probably knows he didn’t earn it.  But so it goes.

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #12 (DV 28%, 13th), Josh Giddey (1/$8.3), Lindy Waters III (1/$2.2t), FIVE 2nds between 2025-2027 and I don’t care which
Assets At The End Of The Day: Nikola Topić (#12), Dillon Jones (#26), Ajay Mitchell (#38), Quinten Post (#52), Alex Caruso (1/$9.9)
Obligatory Commentary: How in the world do the Thunder have 6000 picks in the next seven drafts (just kidding, it’s something like 34…but there are so many conditionals that it’s impossible to tell exactly how many) and only a solitary pick in this one?  This is one of the eternal questions, like “How many Keebler Elves can dance on a Klondike bar?” that may never be answered.  But of course, saying that, the Thunder then turn around and send five of those picks away (all seconds, and as I pointed out above, I don’t care which) to get presumed second-round pick Dillon Jones in the first round.  OK, I guess, but it’s hard to properly care.  Jones, for his part, is a bit of a THT barrel-chested undersized SG – not my favorite phenotype.  But of course the Thunder did have their own 1st rounder.  Topić, for all the neck he brings to the game, is oddly juxtaposed against the recently-deposed Josh Giddey (replaced with excellent defensive guard Caruso), with the determining factor probably being the basic expectation that Topić hasn’t violated age-of-consent laws.  That said, age of consent in Serbia is 14, so…well, shit.  Mollis lex sed lex.  On the second day, the Thunder wheeled and dealed to get a pair of picks, but neither UCSB guard Mitchell nor Boston College post Post seem like threats to stick to me. At the end of the day, I’m not really sure that the Thunder are in a different position than they were before the draft started despite having the draft assets to improve.

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #58 (DV 2%, 29th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Melvin Ajinça (#51)
Obligatory Commentary: Dallas pulled off some sort of wheeling and dealing – probably involving cash (honestly the second round was so chock-full of trades even the people reporting the trades couldn’t keep up, so how was I expected to know?) and moved up a few spots in the second to grab…Ajinça.  It’s hard to be underwhelmed at what a team coming into the draft with nothing but the very last pick does.  Perhaps I’m simply whelmed.  This draft was whelming.  Call me when Ajinça leaves Europe.

WAS

Washington Wizards

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #2, #26, #51 (DV 73%, 4th), Deni Avdija (4/$55)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Alex Sarr (#2), Bub Carrington (#14), Kyshawn George (#24), Malcolm Brogdon (1/$22.5), 2029 1st (2nd of POR/BOS/MIL via POR), two 2nds (?? via POR)
Obligatory Commentary: Sarr was a pretty obvious pick at #2 – I was able to watch a whole one full game of his NBL team against the G-League Ignite, and off the basis of that game alone I was pretty confident that he was a top-5 pick.  Swapping Deni Avdija, on a nicely cost-controlled extension, in order to get Brodgon and take a swing at Bub Carrington is kind of eye opening.  Carrington rose fast and late, and I think that you have to either believe that his last 6 or 7 games was the Real Bub or back away slowly.  Clearly the Wizards thought those last few games were the real deal.  Bold move, Cotton.  The Wiz then traded #26 and #51 to move up to #24…when both #24 and #25 were occupied by the Knicks.  Obviously, if the Knicks gave a single stinky, muddy shoe dredged up from a sewage treatment pond about Kyshawn George, they’d just have taken him.  And yet they let you jump in front of them.  You think that a lousy #51 in this draft is going to move them off of Kyshawn?  No, they just didn’t care.  What a waste, even if the #51 is useless.  For my part, I’m pretty down on Kyshawn, but a lot of teams seem to like him.  All in all, the only reason the Wizards get better here is probably Sarr, and you don’t get rewarded for picking a great player at #2.

CHA

Charlotte Hornets

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #6, #42 (DV 49%, 8th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Tidjane Salaün (#6), K.J. Simpson (#42), Reggie Jackson (1/$5.3), Three seconds (via DEN)
Obligatory Commentary: If any team reached on Wednesday, that team was the Hornets, who inexplicably drafted Salaün, who was mocked in the late lottery and on top of that is also an image miroir of last year’s Brandon Miller.  Sure, Salaün has never been accused of delivering a gun to a murder, but that didn’t stop the Hornets a year ago and Miller is a Hornet now and for three more years, so it’s not like they need to replace him.  Tidjane, for all his bodily frame assets, is another one of those Bruno Caboclos who are two years away from being two years away, and it’s hard to forgive this at #6.  With LaMelo Ball installed, I’m not sure that K.J. Simpson (or Reggie Jackson for that matter, who Charlotte picked up in order to cash in on three future seconds) really moves the needle as a backup.

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #21 (DV 16%, t-21st), 2030/2031 2nd (swap with ORL)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Yves Missi (#21), Antonio Reeves (#47)
Obligatory Commentary: If there was an overrated player in this draft (OK, fine, there were at least a few) there weren’t many candidates more obvious than Yves Missi.  Missi has a bit of defensive ability – a bit – but he is completely a lost cause on offense.  He has bad hands, he can’t run a set to save his life, you’re really just better off asking him to play a cherrypicker on O and hope to confuse the defense into letting you play 4-on-4.  But, hey, he got drafted at #21 because all the mocks had him in the 20s all year for inexplicable reasons.  The Pelicans are already in a precarious position, what with facing the possible exit of Brandon Ingram and the fact that they have to beg Zion to be available for 50 games a year, and this Yves Missi thing doesn’t help.  I actually like Reeves more than a bit, however.  Solid player, blue-blood pedigree, dude can score and he can get his own shot.  He was usually left out of the mocks – for whatever silly reason – and I hoped that the Kings could get a stab at him as an UDFA, but no dice.

LAC

Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #46 (DV 4%, 27th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cam Christie (#46)
Obligatory Commentary: About the best thing I can say about this selection is that Cam gets to join his brother in L.A. – on the wrong team – if Max sticks around in free agency.  Cam came out too soon, so you have to figure he’s headed straight to the G-League with the hopes that he’ll someday pan out.   He can shoot, they say, but, well, they shoot horses, don’t they?  When that’s your only play in the draft, that’s…not great, even at #46.

HOU

Houston Rockets

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #3, #44 (DV 59%, 5th), 2025 1st (BRK, swap), 2026 1st (BRK)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Reed Sheppard (#3), A.J. Griffin (1/$3.9), 2025 1st (PHX, swap), 2027 1st (PHX), 2029 1st (↑DAL/PHX via BRK), 2029 1st (↓DAL/PHX, swap)
Obligatory Commentary: The Rockets got caught up in Brooklyn’s crazy pickswapalooza the night before the draft and ended up…gah, I dunno…with the Nets getting their own picks back while bottoming out I figure at this point it’s probably even.  It’s just a pain in the ass for me, so I’ll dock them a little for it.  But Sheppard at #3 appears to me to be a pure exercise in optimism.  Is he a great shooter?  Yes.  But so was Jimmer.  Sheppard has the advantage of being a better defender…but not on the ball – he’s just got a bit of a knack for getting into the passing lanes.  But ultimately he came off the bench at Kentucky, and his monstruous efficiency came on pretty low usage so his whole profile screams undersized vaguely athletic role player.  At #3?  Even in a bad draft, that’s not aspirational.  Between rounds, the Rockets also managed to grab A.J. Griffin, formerly considered a lotto-level talent (he eventually went at #16), on the very cheap.  Well, there’s a reason he was cheap.

TOR

Toronto Raptors

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #19, #31 (DV 26%, t-15th), Jalen McDaniels (1/$4.7)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ja’Kobe Walter (#19), Jonathan Mogbo (#31), Jamal Shead (#45), Ulrich Chomche (#57), Davion Mitchell (1/$6.5), Sasha Vezenkov (1/$6.7), 2025 2nd (POR, via SAC)
Obligatory Commentary: Walter was consistently mocked in the back of the lottery all year, but he never really grabbed the reins and took control of the Baylor offense, and while he’s only a freshman, it’s easy to count that against him.  He’s got good physicals for a SG, but not really the shot and he hasn’t shown the handle – let’s just say he’s a gamble at best.  At #19, maybe this is a gamble that pays off, but it’s hardly exciting.  The second day of the draft saw a lot more action for Toronto – not all of it great.  They helped out the Kings in a bit of a salary dump by taking on Davion and Vezenkov, sending back The Wrong McDaniels, and getting a couple of second rounders in the process.  I’m just not thrilled at what they did with them.  Mogbo basically played himself into contention to be picked – at all – at the Combine, but at #31, with two Green Roomers sitting right there, the Raptors just ignored all wisdom and grabbed a low-probability role guy.  Shead is the discount version of Davion Mitchell, who they just traded for.  And Chomche is the mystery man, the first kid to get picked out of NBA Academy Africa, but you can’t really know what he can do unless you got on a plane to scout him.  In the end, the Raptors added a net 5 players, and it’s hard to see any of them starting anytime soon, if ever.  The upside for this draft is that they get useful role players.  That’s the upside.

BOS

Boston Celtics

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #30, #54 (DV 12%, 26th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Baylor Scheierman (#30), Anton Watson (#54)
Obligatory Commentary: Scheierman is probably the closest NBA player ever to the Full Old MacDonald (e-i-e-i-o) with a score of 60%.  Outside of that, I don’t really see the attraction – he can shoot a bit, but he makes Larry Bird look like a prototype NBA body.  The Celtics decided to leave the potential shooting ability of Johnny Furphy and the established all-around game of Kyle Filipowski on the Green Room floor to take Chef Baylor-dee, and I don’t remember really liking Spaghetti-Os. In the second round the Celtics had the opportunity to make the #1 ever troll pick by nabbing Bronny James out from under the Lakers’ noses at #54 but regrettably somehow restrained themselves.  Instead, they selected Anton Watson, who fell further and further down the mocks every year he stayed at Gonzaga until I really didn’t even realize he was finally in the draft this year.  There might actually be some guys taken in the 50s this year that boost their team’s grade, but it’s not likely Watson is one of them.

CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #20 (DV 16%, t-21st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jaylon Tyson (#20)
Obligatory Commentary: In every draft I have a good handful of prospects that I simply despise.  Jaylon Tyson is on this year’s list.  He strikes me as little more than a future Jordan Poole – a guy who scores more than he deserves on usage higher than he has earned eventually putting himself in position to sign a contract he can’t cash.  Efficiency matters.  Tyson put up the 5th-highest usage of all players in the 60 (OK, 58) players mocked in the draft – along with the 13th-lowest TS%.  That can’t play, and it’s super obvious to me.  Not obvious to the Cavs, I guess.

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #23, #33 (DV 22%, t-17th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: A.J. Johnson (#23), Tyler Smith (#33)
Obligatory Commentary: It’s not like the Bucks have been meeting expectations lately.  They failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs this year and they’re trending downwards…and they use #23 on a kid who stunk up the Australian NBL to the tune of a .418 TS%?  In my teenage years I literally bent a soda can pop-top tab I was messing around with and decided that the best way to flatten it back out (an operation of questionable utility in the first place) was to place its holes over the prongs of a video-game transformer and to slam the thing into an appropriately-shaped receptacle – like the power outlet.  This plan would have worked…if it weren’t for…electricity.  So one big flash, a blown fuse, a nifty silvery coating on the plug of the transformer, and one completely missing pop-top tab later, I was left with…nothing.  That’s what the Bucks just did.  They just bent their #23 pick for no reason and then poofed it into non-existence.   I’m a bit more optimistic about their #33, but I have to admit that I wasn’t able to get a great handle on Tyler Smith this year.  He’s stretch four-y.  But the last Ignite stretch four-y guy I drooled over (Isaiah Todd) ended up being a no-show in the big leagues, so I’m not likely to go there again.

SAS

San Antonio Spurs

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #4, #8, #35, #48 (DV 100%, 1st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Stephon Castle (#4), Juan Nuñez (#36), Harrison Ingram (#48), 2030 1st (MIN, prot), 2031 1st (MIN)
Obligatory Commentary: The Spurs had the opportunity to build an absolute dynasty around Wemby if they chose.  With #4 and #8, they had the pieces – if auspiciously used – to put together the core of a championship team.  And you know what they say about championship teams – they’re never gonna grow old, they’re never gonna die, and their flags will always fly forever.  For instance, Ron Holland at #4 and Devin Carter at #8 would probably have guaranteed the Spurs a couple of rings.  Instead, they took glue-guy Stephon Castle at #4 and then shipped #8 off for some picks SIX YEARS down the road, by which time Wemby could potentially be one foot out the door.  San Antonio – the franchise that famously thought that Jeremy Sochan could be a point guard – is now in the throes of famously thinking that Stephon Castle can also be a point guard while steadfastly refusing to draft a guy who can actually handle the job.  In the second round, the Spurs went with two players I’d have stayed away from – both of whom put up TS% numbers in the .530s.  Great, so Ingram can rebound from the wing – but can he score?  I’m sorry, but when you have the best overall draft value, you’ve got to come away with more than this.

NYK

New York Knicks

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #24, #25, #38 (DV 32%, 10th), Bojan Bogdanovic (1/$19), 2025/2027/2029/2031 1st, 2025 1st (MIL prot. 1-4), 2028 1st (swap w/BRK), 2025 2nd, more future 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Pacôme Dadiet (#25), Tyler Kolek (#34), Kevin McCullar Jr (#56), Ariel Hukporti (#58), Mikal Bridges (2/$48), 2026 2nd (via BRK), FIVE 2nds between 2025-2027 and I don’t care which, 2028 2nd (BOS, 31-45 prot.)
Obligatory Commentary: ‘Nova York is getting the band back together!  Of course, everybody is pointing this out (and of course, a lot of everybody is missing the fact that Josh Hart actually departed the year BEFORE the Villanova natty, but who’s counting?)  But still, if you’re Eric Paschall or Omari Spellman or Collin Gillespie, you gotta have your agent on the horn with the Knicks, stat!  The fact of the matter is that the Knicks have decided to roll with four guys from Villanova, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and the recently-maxed OG Anunoby.  Can that possibly work?  No.  No, it cannot.  So effectively, the Knicks threw away four future picks and all of their Stepien draft flexibility on a zero-time All-Star.  I want to defend this move, but I’m too busy dipping my finger in crushed habañero pepper and then scratching my eye with it.  Repeatedly.  Lest one try to be charitable, the Knicks had two consecutive late firsts, but they spent one on a Euro who’s probably not coming over and traded the second one for future junk.  Then they used an early second rounder on a one-move PG.  Drive left!  Extend arm!  Throw it up off the glass!  Not gonna work very well against pros.  Basically the only thing I like here is McCullar at #56 – he’s not the be-all, end-all, but he’s a solid rotation-type player with a high floor, and that’s a nice find so late in the draft.

BRK

Brooklyn Nets

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, 30th), Mikal Bridges (2/$48), 2025 1st (PHX, swap w/HOU), 2027 1st (PHX), 2029 1st (↑DAL/PHX), 2029 1st (↓DAL/PHX, swap w/HOU), 2026 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bojan Bogdanovic (1/$19), 2025/2027/2029/2031 1st (NYK), 2025 1st (MIL prot. 1-4), 2025 1st (BRK, swap w/HOU relinquished), 2026 1st (BRK returned),  2028 1st (NYK, swap), 2025 2nd (via NYK)
Obligatory Commentary: Yes, Nets, thank you, I really appreciate you blowing the whole thing up the night before the draft.  You could have done absolutely nothing and made this easy on me, but no.  Instead, it’s going to be almost impossible to keep track of exactly what Brooklyn did here, but the effect appears to be a net (NO PUN INTENDED) four first round picks (even though 14 picks in total got moved on Tuesday alone!)  There was a bunch of wrangling that got them a couple of their own picks back, and by sending out Mikal, they are presumably bottoming out.  Why can’t the team trying to go 3-79 be in the Western Conference for once?  Anyway, in the end, the Nets came into the draft with no picks, and while I generally dock teams for doing nothing…perhaps there’s also a docking for doing way too much.  They dumped a really solid player in Mikal for a net four picks, and we don’t know how those are going to turn out.  How many times can you hit the reset button before Brooklyn kicks you back to New Jersey?  (And, as the capper to the night, I just love how I hate this trade for both sides.)

Once again, it’s the annual Draft Grades Thread! For the annual weather update – because who doesn’t love that? – this has been the coldest summer I can recall around these ways.  It’s the 23rd of June, we’ve had maybe four days in the entire calendar year in the 90s, and for the last week and a half at least I don’t think it’s cracked 80.  I haven’t even run the A/C all year!  For all I know, it doesn’t even work anymore (why in the world would I ever say a thing like that?!?) The windows are open a crack, but it’s 8:30 and I’ve already got socks on, I’ll probably have to close them before all is said and done here. I’ve got a couple of really old ciders but I’m going to start with the good old pink G&Ts before I move on to the pome product, so it’s time to throw on a bit of baseball (and then, perhaps, some TCM) and drop some draft grades!

This year, thanks to a little bout of strep throat or something a week prior to the draft, I had time to waste and decided to add some team logos and in some cases update the font color to match said logo.  Yay.  You will officially enjoy this more than usual.

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success? So much success!)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before/during the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades.  This may seem arbitrary.  Well, it is!  My draft write-up, my rules, baby!

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.

Several years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a percentage value – so the Spurs, coming into the draft, have a strength of 100% and should be hoping to get the best value out of the draft. (Also, we know who they are taking #1, right?)  I’ve included this value as (DV xx%) following the listed picks (a slight change in format from previous years as I think this is a bit more intuitive).

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

The Grades:

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #25, #45, #56 (DV 20%, 18th), Tyus Jones (1/$14), 2024 1st (GSW prot. 1-4)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Marcus Smart (3/$60), Gregory Jackson II (#45), Tarik Biberović (#56)
Obligatory Commentary: Memphis gave up two late picks and one year of Tyus Jones to get three years of Marcus Smart.  It’s kind of hard to argue against that.  In this draft, it’s more than kind of hard.  Biberović is probably a waste and really only serves to allow me to prove that I can hold down a key until the special character menu pops up, and Jackson is more likely than not to be an absolute flame out – he’s got the right body, but as far as I can tell, the wrong head altogether.  But for all that, who cares?  The Grizzlies now have Marcus Smart, and if anybody is going to slap Ja into line, it’s Marcus.  It’s a great move, and it cost them almost nothing outside of a backup PG.  This was an absolute coup.

GSW

Golden State Warriors

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #19 (DV 17%, 20th), Jordan Poole (4/$125), Ryan Rollins (1/$2), Patrick Baldwin (1/$2g), 2030 1st (prot. 1-20), 2027 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Chris Paul (1/$16g), Brandin Podziemski (#19), Trayce Jackson-Davis (#57)
Obligatory Commentary: The Warriors gave Jordan Poole one of the dumbest extensions in the history of the NBA, and then just managed to waltz their way out of it.  What the fuck ever happened to consequences?  While they may have grabbed Podz a bit high he’s tailor-made for their offense, and TJD was a big time target for me, even in the late first.  To grab him at #57 is agent-manipulated highway robbery, even if the NBA isn’t designed for low-post players.  My bet: Jackson-Davis gets out of the Mike Woodson shackles and takes at least 3 threes per 36 at 37% as soon as the Warriors unleash him, on top of all the other winning he brings.  Sure, he’s probably not a star, but he’s been so good at Indiana for so long that he can hardly bust – he’s a solid rotation player, and the last thing the Warriors should be allowed to do is to replenish with solid rotation players for free in the draft.  But seriously.  Like five days ago Bob Myers was talking about how Jordan Poole was going to be a  fixture on the team for years to come, only to unceremoniously dump the fuck out of him for Chris Paul the very first chance he got.  I’m not saying it was the wrong move.  It was the right move.  But I resent it so very much.

HOU

Houston Rockets

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #4, #20 (DV 68%, 6th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Amen Thompson (#4), Cam Whitmore (#20)
Obligatory Commentary: To be perfectly honest, I don’t know jack shit about Amen Thompson.  He played for Overtime Elite, which meant that he was playing against incredibly inferior competition in a venue that was basically impossible to actually watch.  They say he passes better than his brother, and that’s literally all I know.  Cam Whitmore I was not terribly impressed with, but his fall in the draft was shocking to say the least.  I wouldn’t have liked him at #5, but at #20, joining a young team and trying to prove himself, I have a hard time disliking it.  A very solid roll of the dice, in the “I said ’22’…leave it there…cash it in and don’t come back” kind of way.

MIA

Miami Heat

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #18 (DV 18%, 19th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (#18)
Obligatory Commentary: Now I’m not about to say that Jaime Jaquez is going to be the savior of the Heat franchise, but he’s a damn solid player.  He can do just about everything except shoot from outside, and he’s a tenacious competitor and one of the greatest Bruins in memory. He’s smart, he’s fundamentally solid, and even though he spent much of the season mired in the mid-second round in mock drafts it was obvious to me that his late rise was no fluke (the opposite of the typical late-riser curse – Jaquez has been so solid for so long that only a vague sense of his inadequate athleticism could possibly have kept him out of the first round).  There has been a folk tale going around that the 2023 draft is just incredibly deep, with solid players available all the way down to #40, and I know way too much to believe that can possibly be true.  A 20-player draft is deep.  Jaquez is worth being one of the 20, so grabbing him at #18 is about the safest play on the board.

MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #53 (DV 3%, t-25th), (two 2nds to SAS)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Leonard Miller (#33), Jaylen Clark (#53)
Obligatory Commentary: For all the self-inflicted problems that Minnesota is dealing with given the disastrous KAT-Gobert pairing (and Rudy’s subsequent bad teammate explosions) it’s at least comforting that Minny didn’t compound the problem on draft day.  They grabbed Leonard Miller, who needs to improve but now that I think about it does have that wannabe-Garnett profile (but heain’tgonnabe).  I was actually all for taking the risk on Gun-Free-Zone Miller as early as the mid-20s, so blowing a couple of seconds to grab him at #33 seems like pretty darn good value.  Jaylen Clark is a tough call – a great defender, but he has no jumper, isn’t going to create any offense, and…oh yeah, there’s that whole going-to-miss-all-season-with-an-Achilles thing.  There’s no guarantee that he’ll ever be the same, and as a UCLA fan, that pains me, but facts is facts. He’s a gamble at best, and almost certainly never a starter.  At #53, I can’t hate that, but can’t give too much credit until things play out either.

BOS

Boston Celtics

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #35 (DV 7%, 22nd), Marcus Smart (3/$60), Danilo Gallinari (1/$7), Mike Muscala (1/$3.5)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kristaps Porzingis (1/$36), Jordan Walsh (#38), Mouhamed Gueye (#39), 2024 1st (GSW prot. 1-4), 2024 2nd (DAL via SAC), 2025 2nd (best of DET/GSW/WAS), 2026 2nd (best of MIN/NOP/NYK/POR), 2027 2nd (reported ATL but must be BRK?)
Obligatory Commentary: Boston wanted desperately to add the Pork Zinger to their culinary masterpieces (hey, corned beef and cabbage!) and after an initial three-way deal involving the Clippers fell apart, they quickly pivoted to a three-way deal involving Memphis instead to ensure that their fans’ tastebuds would remain wicked oppressed.  They moved up ten spots in the draft and picked up a late first for next year, but they had to dump Marcus Smart on a reasonable deal to do it.  This one’s going to hinge on how good of a fit KP is in Boston, and whether he remains healthy.  Rumors are that they’re going to extend that expiring contract, and with their cap situation, it’s kind of tough to see this as anything other than a hedge against losing Jaylen Brown in free agency a year from now.  If they manage to keep Brown, they’ll be so far above that second apron that the Swedish Chef wouldn’t be able to hit them with the fiskeboller (fine, those are Norwegian, so sue me) if he tried.  Yes, throwing fiskeboller is really all they’re good for.  But now, let me try to take a sober (OK, lying) look at what they have done.  They took a pretty mediocre pick and Marcus Smart and turned that into one unicorn, a Muppet Baby Frankennueva, a big man that probably doesn’t have much of a future, and…one late first and four second round picks. So…after all is said and done the whole thing depends on whether Porzingis is better for the Celtics than Smart or not, and everything else is plain bullshit.  Well, the two are basically the same age, and the advanced stats favor Porzingis by a damn good amount.  So I’m going to call this one a win for the Celtics.

CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #49 (DV 4%, 24th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Emoni Bates (#49)
Obligatory Commentary: Two years ago, this was an A+ draft, but in the meantime the shine has kind of come off the Emoni Bates selection.  One miserable season at Memphis, one mediocre season at…checks notes…Eastern Michigan, some gun charges that are way less concerning than Brandon Miller’s.  But for all that, I was on the “take a swing” train.  There aren’t a lot of guys in the league that can create their own shot consistently against any kind of defensive pressure, and Bates profiles as a guy that might be able to pull that off if he can stick.  At #49, how do you not take that chance?  Nine times out of ten he washes out of the league, quietly, peacefully, but Lenny, if he hits…you will have saved the deposits of millions of season ticket holders.  Given a lot of the absolute stanky swamp ass that was taken before him, at least taking a shot at Emoni panning out was worth the time.

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #60 (DV 2%, 27th), (Something to ORL for 36)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Andre Jackson Jr. (#36), Chris Livingston (#58)
Obligatory Commentary: The Bucks went from Mr. Irrelevant to a decent chance at actual players in both Jackson – a guy who can’t shoot but who is athletic and talented – and Livingston, who was a highly-regarded Calipari recruit who basically got bench minutes and bailed immediately for a payday (imagine what he would do for a Klondike!)  It probably doesn’t pay off, but I guess that’s the cost of drafting Giannis.  Boo-fuckin’-hoo.

LAL

Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #17, #47 (DV 24%, t-15th), $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jalen Hood-Schifino (#17), Maxwell Lewis (#40)
Obligatory Commentary: Year after year it seems to me that the Lakers end up on the decent side of an iffy draft position.  I mean, this year they backed their way into the playoffs with basically nothing but the Hemingway novella The Old Man And AD.  I mean, that’s not a bad duo if that duo isn’t making $85M.  Yet, they did a decent job and managed to get a guy that could be the answer at PG (man, we know D’Lo ain’t it) and then grab a tempting local Pepperdine wing prospect who some thought was worthy of the first round with #47 and cash.  When I was putting together my “who I hope the Kings draft” list, Hood-Schifino was the last guy on the “definitely ain’t gonna be there” list at #16, so going at #17 is pretty much four-stroking a 320 yard hole.  In the end this draft probably doesn’t do a whole lot more for the Lakers than provide a rotation base after LeBron inevitably leaves to join whoever drafts Bronny and AD decides to quit basketball to form the ’80s cover band Flock Of Seagull Brows, but I don’t hate it for what it is.

BRK

Brooklyn Nets

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #21, #22, #51 (DV 35%, 11th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Noah Clowney (#21), Dariq Whitehead (#22), Jalen Wilson (#51)
Obligatory Commentary: I initially thought this had to be an A.  Normally, I say no, but however deep everybody wants to claim this draft is, I’m not buying it.  But the Nets took three mediocre picks, and they grabbed the best falling injured lotto talent available (Whitehead), they grabbed a future rotation piece at the PF (Clowney…who I fucking wish was Biblically named Jonah instead of Noah…I mean, just imagine the “Clown Prince of Whales” nickname!) and they took a solid-if-unable-to-control-his-usage-rate tweener forward in Jalen Wilson.  My guess is that in five years this draft might look fucking amazing.  But in the end the Nets had a 35% draft value and only got one player that I would have actually targeted, so I can’t hold on to that initial “A” assessent. Your only consolation is that I have been consistently reevaluating these Draft Grades on a 5-year schedule, so we’ll get to figure out how I did before too terribly long.  I say the Nets got it right on this one, but how right remains to be seen.

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #10 (DV 33%, 12th), Dāvis Bertāns (2/$22g), (something to SAC?)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Dereck Lively II (#12), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (#24), Richaun Holmes (2/$25)
Obligatory Commentary: Dallas pulled this really bizarre maneuver of dumping the terrible Bertāns contract to move down two spots (and probably still get their target, we would hope), but then turning around and reabsorbing an equally terrible Richaun Holmes contract to grab the Kings’ pick and draft Prosper.  I suppose that when you look at it, it’s a free OMP and they weren’t likely to have any cap space anyway (at least, if they actually do go through with resigning Kyrie…which ain’t necessarily the slam dunk it sounds like) but it felt a bit weird that they were clearing bad salary only to pick up bad salary.  Lively is intriguing, because even though he doesn’t project to have any real offensive game, he’s got the size and agility and instincts to really control the paint on the defensive end.  He started slow at Duke and people started saying dumb shit like “he’s a second rounder” which was always retarded, but he really got into a groove as the season went on and he was pretty obviously a late lotto guy after all.  Olive-Maxine is a different story.  He’s one of those untrustworthy late risers who had a decent junior year after not having much going his first two years who hasn’t really proven himself to have a three-pointer and seems to be kinda making his way on a decent defensive profile and a combine scrimmage performance where he managed to get some lanes to the basket and throw down some dunks.  I tell you, he ain’t going to get those lanes against a coherent NBA defense, so.  I distrust late risers immensely – partially because I might not have seen them (like Prosper) and partially due to a poor history of turning out – so I can’t really endorse.  Lively and the fact OMP was free save the grade.

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #14 (DV 24%, t-15th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jordan Hawkins (#14)
Obligatory Commentary: Hawkins is a nice little player.  Moves well without the ball, looks to be one of the best shooters in the draft.  He’s probably not going to do a whole lot else, but you know who loves shooters?  Spring break bimbos and the NBA!  They can’t both be wrong, and the bimbos almost always regret it, so…  So anyway the ceiling here is a Ray Allen type guy, but of course for all the guys with a Ray Allen ceiling not many actually hit it.  Hawkins probably won’t, but I think there’s good reason to believe that he’ll provide some value before all is said and done.

TOR

Toronto Raptors

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #13 (DV 26%, 14th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Gradey Dick (#13)
Obligatory Commentary: One of the worst things that can be said about your team this time of year is that “they had decent draft position but they didn’t get dick.”  Well, Toronto made sure that didn’t happen by unequivocally getting Dick.  Grodey made history (in a year absolutely mayonnaised by the unacceptable jacket-no-shirt fashion mistake) by out-faux-pasing the entire field with his sequinned ruby slipper turtleneck jacket.  Glinda the Good Witch took one look and told Gradothy to just take it down to the Goodwill and throw it in the dumpster in the back parking lot.  “You either paid 25 cents or 100 dollars for that shirt and I don’t want to know which.”  But, it was definitely in exactly the Raptors’ red color (which is waaaaaay less purple than it used to be in the good ol’ days), so maybe he had a good idea who was going to draft him.  Well, I suppose we can be thankful it wasn’t the Celtics.  What if he thought it would be the Raptors or the Celtics or the Sixers and everybody mistook him for a CRT?  Man, one day somebody’s gotta give us Tribute to the Phosphors.  OH, THIS IS ABOUT BASKETBALL!  Umm, Dick’s a shooter with Huerter size, but I have some concerns about his defense and his mobility and he looks like he’s going to be a bit heavy as things move forward.  Probably not a home run.  Solid single.

UTA

Utah Jazz

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #9, #16, #28 (DV 67%, 7th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Taylor Hendricks (#9), Keyonte George (#16), Brice Sensabaugh (#28)
Obligatory Commentary: Normally, if I saw Taylor Hendricks on your draft results I’d be all over it.  Hendricks is a prototypical big wing with an absolutely ridiculous, effortless shot that has no regard to whether his feet are set or not.  He’s a guaranteed hit.  But that’s countered by two of my least favorite draft prospects.  Keyonte George gives me literally nothing but Markelle Fultz vibes, with the only consolation being that he’s been drafted at #16 instead of at #1 (at the expense of a future #1 as well, PHILLY).  Brice Sensabaugh screams THT II, and that’s not really anything to write home about.  If the Jazz had #9 and walked away with Hendricks, that’s an A.  But the complete waste of their next two picks drags them down.

SAC

Sacramento Kings

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #24, #38, #54 (DV 23%, 17th), Richaun Holmes (2/$25), 2024 2nd (DAL)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Colby Jones (#34), Jalen Slawson (#54), (Something From DAL?)
Obligatory Commentary: I truly hope that in years to come I will look back on this grade and feel dumb, but right now it feels about right.  Nobody really was sure what the Kings wanted to do on draft night, but everybody knew that Keegan2 was likely to be sitting right in the Kings’ range and really wanted it to happen.  Perhaps fortunately the Blazers pulled that one out from under us, but the response was a bit underwhelming.  I almost feel bad saying that, considering that what Monte McNair did – dumping the extremely bad Richaun Holmes contract – $25M worth – for a pick worth about $19M is a winning move – just feels so uninspired.  (BTW, I think I may have just pulled off the rare nested hyphen gambit!  I feel like I deserve another drink!)  Nobody quite knows what the Kings intend to do with the potential cap space, but at any rate, it doesn’t make for an exciting draft.  Jones is a guy that I really felt was a solid late first throughout the season, a guy with a bit of Muppet Baby Haliburton in him, but then we grabbed him at #34 (spending a future second and #38) and I can’t quite seem to get excited about it.  Slawson I didn’t know – I mean who actually watches Furman during the season? – but if nothing else the Mirrored Mascot looks like an amazing defender and seems a candidate to pull the rug out from under the Kessler Edwards acquisition at the last trade deadline. When you skyrocket up into the #3 seed out of nowhere, I guess that even though you don’t expect much from the draft you still set your bar high, despite not having a ton of value in the draft.  I suppose that considering we probably won’t have our 2024 1st, I was hoping that we could spend our #24 on a development project that could spend a year or two in the G-League and stand in for that missing pick, but instead we went for the short-term plug-and-play older draftees.  Was it smart?  Probably.  Just not too terribly exciting.

CHI

Chicago Bulls

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-28th), what would have been pick #57 forfeited for tampering in the Lonzo Ball free agency, (two 2nds to WAS)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Julian Phillips (#35)
Obligatory Commentary: See, Philly?  This is how you tamper with free agency.  Sure, Lonzo Ball has had major injuries and as of this offseason there’s apparently concern among the Bulls staff that he may never play basketball again, but at least he was a former #2 overall pick in the draft, he’s a 6’6″ PG who can shoot and while he hasn’t really knocked it out of the park so far, he at least had a chance to turn your franchise around.  You want to cheat to get that guy, at least I can see it, especially when it only costs you a basically useless pick.  So, with nothing in hand for this draft, the Bulls spent two future firsts to grab Julian Phillips, a reasonably disappointing but reasonably athletic freshman.  As my Bulls fan friend said: “Patrick Williams.  Tyrus Thomas.”  But hey, at least Phillips was a full round later than those guys.  Instead of being all downside, it’s all upside!  And pineapple cake!

SAS

San Antonio Spurs

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #1, #33, #44 (DV 100%, 1st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Victor Wembanyama (#1), Sidy Cissoko (#44), (two 2nds via MIN)
Obligatory Commentary: You don’t get a good grade for winning the lottery.  It’s the everfresh refrain.  So the whole grade here has jack shit to do with the Spurs getting lucky in the lottery for the third time – each time with a generational big man available at #1 – and more to do with how the Spurs dealt with #33 and #44.  “Dealt” is an appropriate word, as the Spurs dealt out #33, which could have been used on a useful player from the G-League, to the Wolves for basically nothing.  They then used #44 on #33 Miller’s teammate Cidy Sissoko, who himself has a chance to be a decent NBA wing, but who also has the chance to wash straight out of the league.  It’s kind of hard to give any credit for that, turning #33 and #44 into a flier and not much else.  Wemby was always #1 overall, nobody thought any different. And the Spurs won that prize (yet again).  30 of 30 teams make the same decision, so no credit. And unless Cissoko badly out performs my expectations, nothing much else, either.

POR

Portland Trailblazers

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #3, #23, #43 (DV 75%, t-4th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Scoot Henderson (#3), Kris Murray (#23), Rayan Rupert (#43)
Obligatory Commentary: The Blazers confused a lot of people with this draft.  The big question for Portland this offseason is whether to trade Dame or build around him.  Kind of a decision point summer out there in Autonomous Zone country.  The strong feeling was that they’d pick their poison by draft time, and either deal Lillard, or send out the #3 pick to return a star player to pair with him.  That sense was only heightened by Brandon Miller going second to Charlotte leaving Portland in the position to draft the obvious Dame-bane Scoot.  “Pick, pick, pick!” we all said, and Portland said, “Nah, we’re taking Scoot, keeping Dame,” (for now) “and then we’re going to grab a rotation plug-in in Keegan-Lite before going after another prospect in Rupert.  We just want to befuddle you.”  It’s working.  Murray is a back-of-the-rotation player, not as good as his brother, that seems pretty clear.  And Rupert…I mean, I have no idea, do you think I watch the NBL?  I don’t drink Foster’s, I’ve never seen a Tasmanian Tiger (OK, they’re probably extinct), and I damn well ain’t going to pop another shrimp on the barbie for ya.  He could do anything.  But he lasted to #43 so my bet is that he ain’t doing much.  Scoot, on the other hand, cannot be dismissed – he was one of those “coulda gone #1 if it weren’t for those meddling tall French people” guys, but he’s crowding the backcourt with Dame and Sharpe needing their minutes.  Seeing as it isn’t resolved (yet), and you (say it with me) don’t get credit for drafting good players with good draft picks, Portland’s gotta get dinged.

DET

Detroit Pistons

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #5, #31 (DV 57%, 8th), 2025 2nd (best of DET/GSW/WAS), 2026 2nd (best of MIN/NOP/NYK/POR), ??2027 2nd (BRK)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ausar Thompson (#5), Marcus Sasser (#25)
Obligatory Commentary: Well, I went to a lot of trouble to make sure that the “Detroit Pistons” text matched the color of the outer circle, so that’s something.  No, seriously, I even went to the Mac search function (that I hardly ever use) and tried “color picker”…which inexplicably brought up…a text file containing a bunch of emails saved from my early 20s for no conceivable reason whatsoever.  Hi, Melinda!  I can’t explain it.  Nor can I exactly explain the insistence of most mock drafts and now the Pistons to ensure that Ausar Thompson went immediately after his twin brother in the draft.  Does he do anything?  He can’t shoot, he can’t pass, and he’s a consensus top-7 pick or so.  Why?  I don’t know!  Nobody can even WATCH the Overtime Elite!  So I figure, he’s just going to suck.  Marcus Sasser, on the other hand, is the next coming of Franks Mason and Jackson.  Is he going to be any good?  No.  So stop asking.

IND

Indiana Pacers

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #7, #26, #29, #32, #55 (DV 75%, t-4th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jarace Walker (#8), Ben Sheppard (#26), Mojave King (#47), Isaiah Wong (#55), 2024 1st (worst of several owned by OKC), 2028 2nd (WAS), 2028 2nd (PHX via WAS), $$
Obligatory Commentary: We all knew that the Pacers weren’t taking five picks this year, and of course they didn’t – instead they flipped two of their decent ones for a kinda lousy one (and then flipped that kinda lousy one for a definitely lousy one and cash) and a first rounder next year.  If everything goes right, that first rounder might actually be decent, so it probably wasn’t horrible asset management.  Still, they took four picks, and three of them seem to be real long shots.  Walker, on the other hand, is likely to be solid.  My issue with him at Houston is that he insisted on hanging out on the perimeter on offense when he was so clearly built to destroy the competition down low.  The hope, the desperate hope for anybody trying to justify the hype around this draft is that Kelvin Sampson just didn’t want him to play in the post where he would have had an undeniable advantage.  But that seems…so unlikely.  Outside of Walker, Sheppard (late riser syndrome) and Wong seem like wastes, and King, while an athletic freak, seems to have a lot of basketball to figure out before he can hope to contribute.  So I don’t really know how to feel about this draft, in the same way that I don’t really know how to feel about TCM running a sexploitation film when all I really wanted was After The Thin Man…but hey, boobies!  (“First, shit on my father against me!”…for the love of all that is holy, hire an actress who can pronounce “she turned”.)  But let’s be honest, the Pacers had the 4th best draft value, and there’s no snowball’s chance they got the 4th-most actual value out of this draft, so I’ve gotta ding them.

NYK

New York Knicks

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-28th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Not a sausage
Obligatory Commentary: Knicks Nix Nix Knock Knox!  I’m sure there’s some necking and knacking and knuckling and Nurse Noakes-ing involved along the way.  But see if I care.  No picks, no Nix, no Knox, no necks, no pecs, no packs, no pucks, no pokes.  All they’ve got are the pox.  And I don’t even have a fucking clue what that means. Nor do I cocks…I mean “care”.  Go the fuck away.  Stop reading.

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-28th), What would have been pick #58 forfeited for tampering in the P.J. Tucker and Danuel House free agency
Assets At The End Of The Day: A whiteboard full of late picks that might be for sale that they didn’t purchase
Obligatory Commentary: Tampering in the Danuel House free agency?  That’s like hiding out in Target over Thanksgiving so that when the doors open for the Black Friday sale you can be first in line for a bath mat.  Even Joe Smith is shaking his head incredulously.  In the end, the Sixers did absolutely nothing.  Trust the No-cess.

LAC

Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #30, #48 (DV 14%, 21st)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kobe Brown (#30), Jordan Miller (#48)
Obligatory Commentary: My old man Baja loves Kobe Brown, but I have a bit of trouble with an overweight, undersized PF just because he made a splash in the SEC.  As far as Jordan Miller goes, If Miller #1 was The Champagne of Draft Picks and Miller #2 was Great Taste Less Talent, Miller #3 is a face tattoo and an ankh pendant away from being able to bondo a chinbutt back to Milwaukee.  Yeah, I apologize, but this psychedelic movie on TCM has caught my eye for a moment and I really have no idea what’s happening.  Not that the Clippers had any idea what was happening, given this draft.  The only saving grace is that expectations were low.

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #15, #46 (DV 27%, 13th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Kobe Bufkin (#15), Seth Lundy (#46)
Obligatory Commentary: It has been reported that Atlanta’s 2027 2nd ended up in Boston, but Atlanta owned that pick as of the day of the draft and did not make any trades.  Sometimes reporters are stupid.  At any rate, it’s not like that would affect this grade in any way.  What will effect this draft grade is the players that the Hawks drafted.  Kobe Bufkin…let me just say that I watched Michigan like three or four times during the season and didn’t even notice Kobe Bufkin.  Then, all of a sudden, it’s like, oh Kobe Bufkin, he’s the shizznit!   Yeah, my rule for late risers applies, which is DON’T.  Atlanta completely failed to follow the DON’T rule, which is probably why Sherman burned the fucking city down in the first place.  …  So that just happened.  Anyway, I don’t even know who Seth Lundy is, so that’s an incomplete, and we’re not offering the course next quarter so…

CHA

Charlotte Hornets

Grade: Dial F for Furder

Assets Coming In: #2, #27, #34, #39, #41 (DV 89%, 2nd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Brandon Miller (#2), Nick Smith Jr. (#27), James Nnaji (#31), Amari Bailey (#41)
Obligatory Commentary: Shockingly, the ESPN draft broadcast completely failed to mention that Brandon Miller delivered a gun to a murder.  So, I figure I ought to bring that up.  Brandon Miller, it is indisputable, that he delivered a gun, to a murder.  So at first when the teammate who actually did the murder got quietly dumped off the team we had like a few months of assuming it was totally unrelated to a clear top-5 pick in the draft until it suddenly came out that oh he delivered the gun to the murder.  And his lawyer is like “oh, he never touched it” and “he didn’t know it was in the back seat” and “yeah, he never actually got that text asking him to bring the piece because he was already on his way.”  Well, let’s just say that Tuscaloosa Police were none too quick to find a reason to believe that he was involved seeing as he was the one piece that was likely to lead Alabama to a Final Four and Nate Oats (man, I Stanned for that fucker) was looking the other way like Northumberland was when Boringbloke took Richard II to the Tower.  Welp, there are things you can get away with when you’re a superstar athlete like Ray Lewis, and you, prole, should just deal with it.  To be honest, I kinda like this draft.  Murdler is a top prospect with no question, and is a better fit beside LaMelo than Scoot would be, Nick Smith had a rough go including some injuries but was perceived as a top-10 guy coming into the season, Nnaji if nothing else is an athletic Biyombo type, and Bailey, if we can forgive his wax job prior to completely forgetting to wear a shirt underneath his jacket in the green room has a chance to be one hell of a #41 pick (again, a dude I would have considered in the late first given his improvement over the season at UCLA).  Charlotte might actually have found some talent here in one draft position or another, but shit.  If my dude texts me from a bar at 2 AM and says, “Bro, bring my piece”, man, I gotta figure it’s not because he wants to go down to the range for some target practice.  Cannot condone.

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #12, #37, #50 (DV 39%, 10th), 2024 1st (worst of several owned by OKC), 2024 2nd (unk. of several)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Cason Wallace (#10), Keyontae Johnson (#50), 2029 1st (DEN, prot. ??-??), Dāvis Bertāns (2/$22g)
Obligatory Commentary: In the first of what is certain to be many future moves to consolidate the absolutely stupid 32 picks they held over the next 7 years coming into this offseason, the Thunder traded away three kinda lousy near-term picks for one possibly lousy long-term pick.  This, of course, will leave them with only 30 picks over the next 7 years (28 of those in years 2-7), and that’s totally reasonable.  But it’s really hard for me to sympathize with the Thunder’s draft this year.  They almost certainly could have had Cason Wallace at #12 (why? you’ve got SGA!) but rather than wait for him they decided to take on the really bad Bertāns contract to lock him up at #10.  I mean, I like Wallace OK, but I don’t think he’s a sure thing, and he’s by no means worth eating a terrible contract just to make sure you land him when you’ve already got a top-10 PG.  Johnson, of course, is a course in risk avoidance – dude with potential heart issues is always going to have potential heart issues.  I can’t quite come up with the last dude to collapse on a college court with heart issues since Hank Gathers, and he died.  I get that the NBA has cleared Keyontae, but I don’t buy it.  Once an Ernest Borgnine, always an Ernest Borgnine.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #40 (DV 6%, 23rd), 2029 1st (prot. ??)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Julian Strawther (#29), Jalen Pickett (#32), Hunter Tyson (#37), 2024 2nd (unk. of several from OKC)
Obligatory Commentary: It took two deals, but the Nuggets ended up flipping #40 and a very future first rounder for three picks in this draft that all hopefully were going to fall before the sweet spot ended.  In principle, I like that.  But then, they drafted Julian Strawther, whom I have been counting out for years, and two dudes I’ve never heard of.  They picked three times between #29 and #37 in a draft (allegedly…we’ll see) deep down to the 40s in talent and managed to come away with some iron pyrite and some coprolite. It’s really hard to have a crappy draft position and still do so poorly, but to be fair, they WERE kind of occupied with, you know, winning the NBA championship so I guess it can be forgiven.  I mean, forgiven, but that doesn’t change the objective draft grade.  It just ameliorates it.

ORL

Orlando Magic

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #6, #11, #36 (DV 82%, 3rd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Anthony Black (#6), Jett Howard (#11), (Something from MIL for 36)
Obligatory Commentary: There were a small handful of players I absolutely hated in this year’s draft.  The Magic drafted two of them.  Black is a terrible shooter, he’s given way more credit for athleticism than he seems to exhibit, and he can’t create his own shot.  I suppose he’s a distributor, but with how strong Arkansas was supposed to be this year, I would have expected him to look better.  Whoever bought into him was always going to get dinged for a bad pick.  But…Jett Howard at #11?  What?  The?  Actual?  Fuck?  Howard spent an entire season overdribbling for the only coach that would remotely allow him to do it, the somehow-not-fired-after-punching-Joe-Krabbenhoft-inthefuckinghandshakeline Daddy Howard. It was laughable.  And somehow the Magic decided to draft him, not at #30, but at #11!  I cannot even articulate how much I hate this draft.  This draft is like taking Draymond Green, crossing him with an avocado, putting him into a high-school musical remake of Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas, and allowing him to anally rape me for for a hablatun while playing nothing but Mr. Bungle on the radio for the entire time.  I’d probably enjoy that less than you’d think.

WAS

Washington Wizards

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #8, #42, #59 (DV 46%, 9th), Bradley Beal (4/$208), Kristaps Porzingis (1/$36), Jordan Goodwin (2/$4), Isaiah Todd (2/$4), 2028 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bilal Coulibaly (#8), Tristan Vukčević (#42), Jordan Poole (4/$125), Ryan Rollins (1/$2),  Landry Shamet (3/$33), Tyus Jones (1/$14), Danilo Gallinari (1/$7), Mike Muscala (1/$3.5), Patrick Baldwin III (1/$2), 2024/2026/2028/2030 PHX 1st (pick swap), 2024/2025/2026/2027/2030 PHX 2nd, 2030 GSW 1st (prot. 1-20), 2027 GSW 2nd, (two 2nds from CHI)
Obligatory Commentary: The Wizards took a one-year look at that 5/$251M contract they signed with Bradley Beal and ran straight to the hills.  What’s that you say?  Landry Shamet and some second round picks?  Sold!!!  The Wizards could potentially opt in to CP3’s 2 years and $61M, but the smart money says they’re going to do exactly what the Suns were rumored to be doing, which is waive him and stretch the $16M he’s guaranteed for next year.  OR – and get this!! – they could send that CP3 contract out for the other Worst Contract In The League in Jordan Poole’s asstastic analcolorectonosmiatic shitstain of a legal employment agreement.  Yeah, they did that.  Anyway, considering that Beal was getting paid like a superstar to be, you know, pretty decent on a, you know, pretty bad squad, the Wizards were happy to get out from under that albatross and reset.  Never allow yourself to be parked under the albatross, especially if it has been eating.  If that wasn’t tanking enough, just a day or two later, the Wizards completed the process (not capitalized – not a trademark!) by shipping out The Unicorn as well.  The thing is, they didn’t really get a great return for him at all.  #35, a year of Tyus Jones, and salary filler?  Over the course of not-that-long the Wizards have traded away Beal, Porzingis, and Hachimura and they didn’t get a single first round pick back if you don’t count the swap(s) with Phoenix that aren’t going to happen.  The Wizards are basically going to be awful for a while, again.  Yes, they had some shitty contracts and have been more or less forced into making stupid moves, but it’s just not an excuse.  As far as the draft picks go, Bilal is the protoypical wing-and-a-prayer that NBA front offices seem to love so much, but can he play?  Vukčević actually showed out a bit at the combine, but it apparently didn’t translate into anybody, you know, actually drafting him anywhere near the first, so there’s not a real savior there.

PHX

Phoenix Suns

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #52 (DV 3%, t-25th), Chris Paul (1/$16g), Landry Shamet (3/$33), 2024/2026/2028/2030 1st (pick swap), 2024/2025/2026/2027/2028/2030 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bradley Beal (4/$208), Jordan Goodwin (2/$4), Isaiah Todd (2/$4), Toumani Camara (#52)
Obligatory Commentary: So I’m going to guess that this whole thing kind of went down like the decision to make s’mores out of the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man in you-know-what:

James Jones: We’ll cross the second apron.
Mat Ishbia: Excuse me, James?  You said crossing the second apron was bad.
Robert Sarver: Cross the second apron…
Mat Ishbia: You’re going to endanger us, you’re going to endanger our fans…the nice ones, who paid us in advance for their season tickets before their team went bankrupt…
James Jones: Not necessarily.  There’s definitely a very slim chance we’ll survive.
Mat Ishbia: I love this plan!  I’m excited to be a part of it!  Let’s do it!
Frank Vogel: Bradley Beal is definitely not worth $50M a year…

That’s got to be a pretty accurate reconstruction.  The Suns now have four star-level players under contract, four replacement-level players under contract, and seven empty roster spots.  OK, the trade details are in and this is literally fucking nutty.  The Suns have traded away ALL SIX OF THEIR REMAINING SECOND ROUND PICKS AND HAVE PUT A PICK SWAP ON ALL FOUR OF THEIR REMAINING FIRST ROUND PICKS. Phoenix now literally has four total picks in the upcoming seven drafts and they are all encumbered.  Five picks in eight drafts if you count this year’s #52 (which went to…Toumani CaWhatzisname).  If this goes wrong, they go to cap jail, peacefully, quietly.  But if it goes right…Ishy…you will have brought a championship to thousands of season ticket holders.  Oof.  Apparently the Ghostbusters references are flying fast and furious tonight.  Even the same reference twice, which is almost embarrassing but I’m leaving it in.  Bottom line, I hate what the Suns are doing.  The Suns have put themselves in double-apron hell for the foreseeable future for…the aging Bradley Beal?  It’s inexcusable.  More power to them.  Continue making inexcusable moves.  It can only help the Good Guys.

Things have gone fairly ill (or, depending on whether you thought I actually intended to wager any money, fairly well) for the Over/Under Moneysaver in the last few years.  First, I had a crappy year in 2019-2020.  Then there was a pandemic in 2020-2021 and I totally forgot to do it.  Then 2021-2022 turned into an absolute bloodbath, which not only erased the meager amount of money I had virtually won in previous years, but went further and put me deep in the hole.  I’m now at $30690 not-wagered and $29022 not-won, for a total of $1668 (-5.5%) not-down. To be fair at least it’s not as bad as inflation!  So, like, I’d better hope I can even it out this year, or I don’t know if I can justify sitting down on a lazy Saturday night next year and doing it a-l-l(-y-s-o-n) over a-g-a-i-n.  As always, I’ll let stand the paragraph that explains why the odd dollar values, right here, and then just get on with it:

What the heck is the deal with $5115? I’ll get to that in a minute. But the idea is that I have to lay a bet on each of the 30 over/unders. Rather than allow myself to distribute the money completely freely, I’m going to play it like a pick ’em with confidence points. For instance, if I think the line on the Sacramento Kings this year is really, really wrong I’m going to put $30 on them, then $29 on the line I think is next safest, and so on. Except $30 doesn’t really work great, because (as best as I can figure – remember, I’m not a big gambler) your typical over/under bet pays at +110, or in other words, wager $11 to win $10. So if I bet $30 and won, then I’d get the bet back plus $27.27272727. That’s just tough to deal with. So instead of betting $30, I’m going to bet $30*11 = $330, so that if I win, I get $300 on top. It just makes everything come out in whole numbers. And that means that the total I have to wager is $5115.

And with that said, time to do some non-gambling!

(Odds taken from http://www.thelines.com 10/8/22, from DraftKings’ sportsbook – For some reason the Magic aren’t listed for DraftKings, but four other collated sites agree so I’ll go with that.)

Team O/U Wins My Pick Act. Wins Wager Return
Sacramento Kings 33.5 Over 48 $330 $630
Portland Trailblazers 39.5 Under 33 $319 $609
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 Over 54 $308 $588
Utah Jazz 24.5 Under 37 $297 $0
Indiana Pacers 23.5 Over 35 $286 $546
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 Under 40 $275 $0
New York Knicks 38.5 Over 47 $264 $504
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 Over 51 $253 $483
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 Under 22 $242 $462
Boston Celtics 53.5 Over 57 $231 $441
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 Over 58 $220 $420
Miami Heat 48.5 Over 44 $209 $0
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Over 41 $198 $0
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 Over 44 $187 $0
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 Under 45 $176 $336
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 Under 41 $165 $315
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 Under 27 $154 $294
Detroit Pistons 29.5 Under 17 $143 $273
Chicago Bulls 41.5 Over 40 $132 $0
Orlando Magic 26.5 Over 34 $121 $231
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 Under 42 $110 $210
Washington Wizards 35.5 Under 35 $99 $189
Houston Rockets 23.5 Over 22 $88 $0
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 Under 38 $77 $147
Denver Nuggets 49.5 Over 53 $66 $126
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 Under 51 $55 $0
Phoenix Suns 52.5 Under 45 $44 $84
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 Under 42 $33 $63
Golden State Warriors 51.5 Under 44 $22 $42
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 Under 43 $11 $21

There are a couple of things to consider when trying to make these predictions.  Well, there used to be a couple of things, but at this point, I’ve shed some deadweight and we’re just going to think about one big thing.

That big thing is that over the last six years the books have predicted 10/16/12/10/16/17 wins more than were actually available.  This year it’s only 3 too many wins!  I’m going to call this the Victor Wembanyama Effect.  The enthusiasm of pre-season fans has been tempered by the epic tankathon we are about to see.  So instead of erring on the side of the under for every team, this year I think I’ll err on the side of the under for the tankers and err on the side of the over for the non-tankers.  (As a final note – after articulating this guidance, I went and mostly ignored it, with most of my decisions not coming down to a “tiebreaker”.  Then I ordered my confidence.  Then I went back and checked, and with only a few exceptions, the picks where I followed this rule ended up at the high-confidence levels and the picks where I broke this rule ended up at the low-confidence levels.  Go fig.  We’ll see how that works out.)

And now, finally, I’m ready to try to make these projections.  Before each team’s writeup, I’m going to list the Over/Under line, followed by the team’s Pythagorean last year.

The Stupid Lines

Sacramento: (33.5/28) Look, I’m totally bought in. The team looks good.  Mike Brown seems to have everybody on the same page.  The Kings now have a passing post threat in Sabonis who also clears up the three-guard logjam they had with Fox/Hali/Mitchell.  Keegan Murray is the real deal, and ready to contribute immediately.  They got rid of malcontents in Hield and Bagley and brought in Fox’s BFF Monk as well as Huerter.  KZ Okpala is going to help the team’s efforts to become a much-improved defensive squad.  And – and this is a big, big, big “and” – they’re desperately trying NOT to tank.  Having taken over not only the NBA record 16 years without making the playoffs, with the Seattle Mariners getting into the Wild Card (AND the ALDS this afternoon, congrats Seattle!) the Kings now hold the longest active no-playoffs streak in the big four sports.  They are the only team in the league that gives literally zero shits about Victor Wembanyama.  They just want to win.  Now.  Not next year.  Now.  I have a mouth, and I’m going to put all my no-money right where that mouth is.  OVER.  No question.

Portland: (39.5/20) Holy Guac.  39.5???  Last year the Blazers tanked so hard that their Pythagorean was 7 games over their actual record, and their reward was a player in Sharpe who hadn’t even played in a year.  They dumped McCollum and by the All-Star Break Lillard is going to be begging to get out.  40 games to pay out?  Are you kidding me?  UNDER.

Philadelphia: (50.5/48)  Embiid.  Harden.  Harris.  Maxey.  OVER.

Utah: (24.5/56) The Jazz aren’t trying to win ANY games this year, much less 25 of them.  UNDER.

Indiana: (23.5/32) Indiana was SO BAD last year and even then they weren’t close to 23 wins.  They’ve added Mathurin, and that’s enough to let the tank be not quite immaculate.  OVER.

Oklahoma City: (23.5/21) The Thunder fell on the sword and took Holmgren at #2 only to see him lose  his rookie season from a freak injury playing in a pro-am.  How many of us said that Holmgren was a  freak injury waiting to happen?  Oh yeah, all of us. So the Thunder are playing this season for the Wembanyama Lottery and that’s it. Sure, 24 isn’t a lot of wins, but they have two point guards and nothing else. UNDER.

New York: (38.5/41) It feels like a lot of teams are bringing back their top 8 or 9 guys this year.  The Knicks are no different.  Sure, they let Kemba walk, but they added Brunson and Hartenstein in the offseason and Cam Reddish at the deadline and I can’t imagine they’re tanking.  Any team that’s not tanking in the VWE year is going to have little trouble making it over 39 wins.  OVER.

Cleveland: (47.5/47)  The Cavs stunned the crap out of me last year, since I totally didn’t believe in Evan Mobley.  Welp.  This year they add Donovan Mitchell.  Umm, so…OVER?

San Antonio: (22.5/41) This year’s Spurs have been designed to lose to a G-League team.  Pop is no fool, and it’s all about the Wenbanyams, baby.   UNDER.

The I-Feel-OK-About-This Lines

Boston:  (53.5/59)  Sure, there are also reports of issues in the Celtics locker room, but last year they way underperformed, only recording 51 actual wins to 59 projected.  That’s going to play into this year’s line, to the favor of anybody paying attention.  OVER.

Milwaukee: (52.5/49) The Bucks disappointed a bit in the regular season last year.  Last year they returned their top 7 players and didn’t quite reach the over for me.  This year they return their top 9. Plus they add Joe Ingles.  I’ve been burned before, but it’s tough to treat this as a lesson when they  have Giannis.  OVER.

Miami: (48.5/53)  The Heat are basically the same team they were last year, minus P.J. Tucker.  They’re hoping to get something out of Oladipo, who might finally be ready to provide something again.  They’re not tanking.  This all adds up to OVER.

Toronto: (45.5/47) Yet another team that has lost a grand total of one of their top-ten (and number 9 at that).  It may be close, but they’re the same team they were last year, so they should have the same performance.  OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers: (52.5/41)  No Paul George, no Kawhi, serious problem.  But that was last year.  It’s basically impossible to gauge the Clippers based on what they did last year because they were missing their two best players, one for the whole year, one for a huge chunk.  The fact that Tyronn Lue somehow got a group of random scrubs to play league-average ball is honestly pretty shocking.  But what do you figure for this year when George and Leonard are expected to be healthy?  They’ve added an aging John Wall – can he move the needle?  They’ve gotta be better than a .500 team this year, and while I’ve got reservations, I guess that the VWE is going to get them a few more wins than you’d think.  OVER.

Brooklyn: (50.5/43) Somebody has to win games, but it sure doesn’t seem like everything is copacetic in Barclay’s.  Shouldn’t Durant/Simmons/Irving be worth more than 50 wins?  Yes, but I think we underestimate the sheer amount of dysfunction here.  I’m taking that into account.  UNDER.

The Tough Calls

Atlanta: (45.5/45)  The Hawks lost a good portion of their rotation (though more back-half) in Gallinari,  Huerter, and Wright.  They replaced these guys with Dejounte Murray and perhaps the hope that Jalen Johnson can contribute this year.  That doesn’t really inspire a lot of confidence for a team that needs to beat last year’s Pythagorean to come in. UNDER.

Charlotte:  (35.5/42) This would have been a completely different over/under before Miles Bridges decided he would rather beat the shit out of his girlfriend than be an NBA star.  What a double-dumbass.  So, sure, the Hornets have the under-efficient LaMelo Ball.  But in the end I think this season is turning towards the tank.  UNDER.

Detroit: (29.5/22) The Pistons are still in talent acquisition mode.  Cade Cunningham had a really, really pedestrian rookie season and the VWE is going to have the Pistons hoping that Cade + new #5 pick Jaden Ivey + trade pick-up Marvin Bagley don’t actually bump their win totals.  They’re not trying to win this year, and Stewart and Bey aren’t pushing them over the top. Helped by Marvin Bagley’s Dad, I call the Pistons to go UNDER.

Chicago: (41.5/40)  Last year the Bulls 6 managed a bit of magic by going 6 wins over last year’s Pythagorean.  Then this year, they go and bring back their top 7 and 8 of their top 10 and add in Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond and the hope that Dalen Terry can help out a bit.  Sure, Lonzo is hurt and may miss a lot of time. Still, I’m going OVER.

Orlando: (26.5/21) In addition to uniting the Wagner supertwins, the Magic have added Paolo Banchero.  I don’t even care that Jalen Suggs is hurt, they have Cole Anthony to make up for it.  Somebody has to win some games in the East. OVER.

Minnesota: (48.5/48) The Wolves went and added Rudy Gobert to KAT in a weird Twin Towers move that seems fraught with peril in today’s game that is dominated by guards and threes.  To do it, they traded or let go of 13 WS in major rotation players Pat Bev, Vanderbilt, and Beasley.  They basically replaced three rotation players with one, and I’ve been way too optimistic on rookies the last decade or so to really believe my own eyes when they tell me Wendell Moore is going to be of any help.  UNDER.

Washington: (35.5/32) This team is Beal, Porkzinger, and a bunch of understudies.  VME wins.  UNDER.

Houston: (23.5/21) Is Houston tanking?  Yes.  But so is everybody else.  Somebody has to lose the tankathon, and Houston with Jalen Green and Sengun and adding Jabari Smith and Tari Eason are the best positioned to get those Wosses when playing the other VWE tankers.  OVER.

Dallas: (48.5/50)  The Mavs have lost Brunson and Porzingis and forgive me if I don’t believe that Jaden Hardy and Christian Wood are going to replace that.  It may be heart and not head again, But I’ll take the UNDER.

Denver: (49.5/47) We have to assume Jamal Murray is going to be healthy this year.  There has been a bit of turnover, but not Jokic.  And not MPJ, who maybe, just maybe, is also healthy.  Without these guys the Nuggets were almost there.  So, OVER.

Memphis: (48.5/55) I don’t understand this team.  I don’t believe in this team. 49 wins?  No thanks. UNDER.

The Total Wild Cards

Phoenix: (52.5/59)  The Suns ended up 5 games over their Pythagorean last year, so this over/under probablly reflects the locker-room issues they seem to be having with the whole maybe-they-don’t-even-want-Ayton thing they have going on.  Then they went and lost to the Adelaide 36ers (not a typo) in the preseason, just to hammer home the issues they’re having.  CCP3 is getting old.  (OK, for the record, ever since a laptop battery replacement several months ago, my “C” key and my space bar are fucking doubling up like nobody’s business, but I’mma let “CCP” stand.)  Umm, where was I?  Suns.  UNDER, I guess.

New Orleans: (44.5/38) I don’t even know who the Pelicans are anymore.  I mean, I know that they’ve got Sleepy-Eyes Ingram and Mccollum and Kira Lewis and there’s this hope that Hurricane Zion is going to make landfall as a Category 5 and overwhelm the levees, but seriously.  45 wins?  Do you really believe that Zion can play a full season healthy?  I don’t.  Seriously, I don’t.  This team is going to be begging for the Victor Sweepstakes before King Cake time.  Right?  Then again, they could really click. UNDER.  But I don’t exactly feel good about it.

Golden State:  (51.5/55) Hmm.  Sure, they’re the reigning champions, but a few days ago Draymond Green went all Mike Tyson on Jordan Poole and it got all over TMZ.  Green has now “stepped away from the team”.   That’s not enough to get the team under 52 wins.  But perhaps a bit of hope and a prediction of some sort of injury to someone will.  It may be just wishcasting, but UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers: (45.5/33)  Like maybe if I believed that AD could stay healthy I’d have to consider it.  But, like, LOL.  UNDER.

The Results…

Check in #1.  It’s late January, and we’ve already had three teams come in.  Utah, who started ridiculously hot (and then cooled off significantly to what I kind of expected) was able to crush my dreams of making big money off of their tank.  Oops.  OKC has also thwarted my expectations of mediocrity despite Chet Holmgren not even being available to play his rookie season.  Crazy.  On the other hand, Indiana also started hot and paid off for me before Hali went down.  The Kings, my #1 bet, are basically a lock to come in as well, needing only 6 wins in their final 33 games, but let’s not count chickens.

Check in #2, on (technically now) March 1, and those Kings chickens have hatched.  Kings are going to make the playoffs, fam.  It’s beginning to look like they could legit hold on to the #3 seed, so I’m glad I had the nuts to put them #1 on my list (even if they weren’t the first team to come in).  The only other team to finalize things this month was the Clippers, who can’t make that lofty 53 wins mark in a competitive West, especially seeing as they keep playing Kawhi-load-management stuff.  But there are a lot of teams close to their marks (most in my favor) and a good number on pace for me, so this is beginning to look like it’s going to be my best effort in quite a while.

And the final numbers have me correct on 22 of 30 picks, for a return of $7014 on that $5115 – almost a full $1000 better than I’ve ever done!  This turns around a series of poor years which put me way underwater in one fell swoop, I’m now up to $36036 (not) won on $35805 (not) wagered – 0.65% up, but that’s “up”!

Once again, it’s the annual Draft Grades Thread! For the first time in three years, the draft is being held in late June like an NBA draft is supposed to be.  The windows aren’t open but the heat ain’t hellish (probably at least 5 degrees cooler than projected), I’ve got a couple of really old ciders and a sixer of fresh ones, and it’s time to throw on a bit of baseball and drop some draft grades!

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success? So much success!)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before/during the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades.  This may seem arbitrary.  Well, it is!  My draft write-up, my rules, baby!

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.

Several years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a percentage value – so the Thunder, coming into the draft, have a strength of 100% and should be hoping to get the best value out of the draft.  I’ve included this value as (DV xx%) following the listed picks (a slight change in format from previous years as I think this is a bit more intuitive).

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

The Grades:

Dallas Mavericks

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #26 (DV 11%, 22nd), Boban Marjanovic (1/$3.5), Sterling Brown (1/$3), Trey Burke (1/$3po), Marquese Chriss (1/$2.2), 2024+2028 2nds
Assets At The End Of The Day: Christian Wood (1/$14.3), Jaden Hardy (#37)
Obligatory Commentary: I can’t believe I’m giving the Mavs full credit on this draft, because they could have stood pat and grabbed Wendell Moore, who I love. But in the end, they traded away a group of players that had more retreads than a semi tire (and a dude whose best value was in a State Farm commercial – is it possible to watch Boban complain about people not using coasters and not adore him?) to grab a solid Christian Wood and a bargain basement flyer on a former lottery prospect in Hardy. They came in with crap. They left with a solid player and a total lottery ticket. I love it.

New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: A+

Assets Coming In: #8, #41, #52 (DV 45%, 10th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Dyson Daniels (#8), E.J. Liddell (#41), Karlo Matković (#52)
Obligatory Commentary: I like it! Daniels really jumped up in my estimation late in the season. He was always a good defender and passer, but he started to hit his deep shots, he showed a lot of willingness to play both on the ball and off the ball, and he measured fantastically well at the combine. He has the ability to be, rather than a tall PG, more of a great-ball-movement SF who can guard 1-4, and he’s one of the younger players in the draft – I had expected that if the Kings traded down a bit they’d likely be targeting this kid and with good reason. Now, that’s not what happened, but at #8 I think he’s potentially a bargain, and it will be interesting to see if he ends up outdoing fellow Aussie Josh Giddey before too long. Then, the Pelicans held on to their seats and managed to find one E.J. Liddell falling to them at #41. Liddell is the ultimate undersized PF – just a fantastic basketball player who maybe is only pushing 6’7″ in shoes. Fine. So what? Do you like 19 and 8 on .600 TS%? Yes. Yes you do. You do at the end of the first round and you definitely do at #41. Matković is a Euro-stash boy (took the train down to Athens, and he slept in a fountain) so he doesn’t even play in to the grade. (Some Swiss junkie in Turin ripped me off of my cash)

Portland Trailblazers

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #7, #36, #57 (DV 48%, 9th), 2025 1st (MIL, 1-4 prot.), 2026 2nd (best of POR/NOP)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Shaedon Sharpe (#7), Jabari Walker (#57), Jerami Grant (1/$21), (something from DEN for 46 and nobody knows what and I don’t care)
Obligatory Commentary: Portland is stuck in this weird We’ve-Gotta-Appease-Lillard mode, but that didn’t stop them from sticking their necks out pretty hard to grab Shaedon Sharpe, this draft’s mystery man who nobody has seen play for a year, and even then only against high school talent and largely in the D-optional EYBL (otherwise it would be EDYBL, and that would make me hungry). For the record, I am all aboard the Sharpe Train, and while I loosely advocated for the Kings to take him at #4 (or more to the point, to trade down), so very much of that was FOMO. Is Sharpe going to be the next Kobe? I mean, probably not, but man, it’s nice to dream about a kid like that. And Portland grabbed him up. Good for them. Despite rumors that they would trade out of #7 for some veteran help. And, lo and behold, they got that veteran help anyway via a schizoid Detroit team whose asking price on Jerami Grant was like two first round picks from the Kings at the deadline and went down at draft time to just a single protected Milwaukee pick that’s going to be in the 20s unless Giannis gets hurt. (Please, universe, don’t let me speak that into existence!) And on top of that, the Blazers picked up Samaki Walker’s kid super late – I mean kind of where he was mocked but all year I thought the mocks were dumb on him. Athletic hustle kid with size and some skill? He’s way better than his dad, and I haven’t forgotten that his dad was the reason the Kings never won a championship. Stupid halftime buzzer beater three that was late but got counted anyway. I’M NOT BITTER AT ALL. But, hey, at least I’m not going to hold it against his kid. I’m asking the googs to give me a better word for “sins of the father” than “ancestral sin” but it’s not cooperating. Fine, whatever. I like Portland’s draft and would have been quite happy with it had it been the Kings. Full stop.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: A

Assets Coming In: #19, #40, #48, #50 (DV 29%, 14th), 2025+2027 2nds, future 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Walker Kessler (#22), Wendell Moore (#26), Josh Minott (#45), Matteo Spagnolo (#50), 2023 NYK 2nd, 2026 IND 2nd, $$
Obligatory Commentary: I don’t hate Walker Kessler. I don’t. He can block shots with the best of them. But his athleticism is questionable at the NBA level, and frankly, all you gotta do is paint his face green and slap a couple of bolts onto his neck and he’s got a ready-made Halloween costume. Still, the Wolves got one of my favorite prospects in the draft in Wendell Moore (a complete 180 from my opinion of him during his freshman and half of his sophomore years) and I do believe that Josh Minott has a chance to develop. I really wanted to see him go for a sophomore year at Memphis but for some reason ain’t nobody sticking it out under Penny Hardaway and who am I to judge? So is Minott good? I don’t know. But Moore (and not Matteo and Rossi, Asti Spagmanti) salvages this draft. I believe in him. I wanted him. I can hardly believe the multiple trades involved in negotiating his way to the NBA, when it should have been “with the #12 pick in the NBA draft…” Oh well.

Toronto Raptors

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: #33 (DV 8%, 24th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Christian Koloko (#33)
Obligatory Commentary: I’m an idiot, but Koloko was way, way, way underrated in this draft. A big man who has athleticism, speed, size, skill…like what else do you want? He’s not a superstar, and nobody is asking for that, but he’s totally a backup C with the potential to step into a starting role on a team with great guard and wing play. I love it. I don’t care if you don’t.

Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: A-

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-27th), 2028 2nd (LAL/WAS), $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Max Christie (#35)
Obligatory Commentary: When I first took a look at Max, I had to go ask Dr. Wiki if this wiry kid was related to Rex Quondam Rexque Fu-coachus Doug.  He’s not.  So I gotta downgrade my expectations some.  Max may eventually score, and he may eventually defend, but he’s not really there yet.  Still, the Lakers bought him cheaply enough despite not even having a pick in the draft, and I do think the depth in this draft went down to the 40 range, so I can’t hate on it, even if it is the Lakers.

Atlanta Hawks

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #16, #44 (DV 25%, 16th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: AJ Griffin (#16), Tyrese Martin (#51), $2M
Obligatory Commentary: Look, I don’t even know who Tyrese Martin is (a senior from UConn, apparently), and he’s what you get when you milk $2M out of the #44 pick to trade down – which now that I think about it seems a pretty extraordinary price for a crappy second rounder eventually used on Ryan Rollins. So, really, that’s a win? But the focus here has got to be on AJ Griffin – here’s a kid who had buzz as high as top-5 at various points in the season, and who was easily the best wing shooter in the draft. But, he’s a wee bit undersized and he’s had some pretty serious leg injury issues that seem to have hampered his athleticism. Is he going to be able to hang with the big boys once he’s fully healthy? We don’t know. Is he already fully healthy, and this is just the new AJ? We don’t know. Basically, some team had to take a chance on him at 16 or 17 – and so it was 16. I just don’t think there was any justification for him dropping any more than one additional slot. The Hawks like Griffin’s potential offense more than Eason’s D? Cool. Snag him. It could be a hell of a steal.

Charlotte Hornets

Grade: B+

Assets Coming In: #13, #15, #45 (DV 51%, 7th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Mark Williams (#15), Bryce McGowens (#40), 2023 DEN 1st (prot. 1-14 thru 2025), 2023 UTA 2nd, 2023 DAL/MIA 2nd, 2024 NYK 2nd
Obligatory Commentary: The Hornets came into this draft with a need for a big man and two picks in the sweet spot for the Jalen Duren/Mark Williams duo. On top of that, they were really, really sure that the Cavs, sitting on one Evan Mobley, weren’t going big with #14. So they sold #13 and rolled the dice on getting their guy at #15, and it worked. Williams may end up being a great player – mostly defense, but he’s got size and athleticism that give you the whole Willie Cauley-Stein if he didn’t decide he liked pot more than money vibe. He may not be QUITE as athletically gifted, but I’m pretty sure that the next time he breaks his thumb on the rim trying to block a shot he’s not going to go home crying to mommy and decide to be ground-bound and useless for the rest of his career. That said, I’m not exactly enamored with the return they got for #13. A protected 1st that’s not going to be better than what htey gave away, a bump to grab broad-shouldered but patience-needed McGowens, and a bunch of seconds? I can quibble. Maybe they’d have been better served to bring both Duren and Williams into camp and have them reenact the original Highlander. But it is what it is, and Williams gets handed the job, and that’s not a disaster.

Sacramento Kings

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #4, #37, #49 (DV 59%, 5th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Keegan Murray (#4), 2017 draft rights to Sasha Vezenkov, $1.75M cash, (2024+2028 DAL 2nd)
Obligatory Commentary: From even before the time that the Kings landed the #4 pick in the lottery, there was a lot of speculation that their lotto pick would be up for sale to get some veteran help in their seemingly never-ending push to finally make the playoffs again. Then, the Kings got lucky. Couple that with Jaden Ivey, a player who has fit issues with the Kings, being widely considered as the “+1” in a “3+1” player draft, and that makes for a pretty tasty recipe for trade rumors. Sure enough, by a few days before the draft, rumors were hot and heavy that Detroit, Indiana, Washington, New York, and Memphis – at the least – were strongly interested into moving up into that #4 slot to grab Ivey, or as the case may have been, “somebody”. Thus, assuming the Big Three went top three, the draft really would start with Monte “MyHair!” at the 4 pick deciding between keeping Ivey, playing the suitors off of one another to milk maximum value out of the pick, or, in the seeming worst-case scenario, passing on Ivey to pick somebody else at #4. Yeah, so that’s not the way things went, is it? 24 hours worth of hindsight and the consensus #4 player in the draft, at least on the GMs’ side, was always Keegan Murray? And who can argue with that when he put up one of the greatest offensive seasons in the NCAA since Tim Duncan. Murray can shoot, he can play in the post, he’s an AMAZING transition player, he can play D, he’s got all the BBIQ in the world…and I’m thinking he was the consensus #4, even if he is old for a sophomore. So, it turns out that all of the trade rumors come to nothing, because the Kings didn’t think they could find a trade-down that would allow them to also nab the highest player on their board. I guess I can’t complain? I gotta say, Murray can do it all, and it’s at least a bit cathartic to watch Fran McCaffery find seven ways to rip brand new assholes for those accusing Murray of having a low ceiling. I’m talking myself into this draft. McNair didn’t get cute, he took his guy, he gave away a low-value #49 for the rights to one of the best Euro forwards this year, an older, NBA-ready guy with an NBA out clause and great size and shooting at the 3…I think the only thing to complain about is that we punted on the #37. There were some rumors that we were trying to get into the late first – my guess is to try to nab Wendell Moore – but when that evaporated, the Kings ditched their best second rounder for some crappy future second rounders. Why not take the flyer on Jaden Hardy? I don’t know. But it’s the only thing from all night that I hate, once I look back on it with sobriety. (Umm…maybe not sobriety, says all the EtOH in my bloodstream.  Draft sobriety.)

Golden State Warriors

Grade: B

Assets Coming In: #28, #51, #55 (DV 16%, 18th), $2M
Assets At The End Of The Day: Patrick Baldwin Jr. (#28), Ryan Rollins (#44), Gui Santos (#55)
Obligatory Commentary: If you had told me early in the season, say after the Robert Morris game specifically, that the Warriors were going to land Baldwin in the draft, I would NOT have bet on them to win the Championship too.  Just putting that out there.  But Baldwin looked horrible after that, and I know it’s injuries and all, but his talent and shooting didn’t justify a lottery pick – even remotely – when all was said and done.  The Warriors will have time to heal him up, kind of like Kevon Looney, and probably will end up getting a steal.  I have no real idea who Ryan Rollins is.  I simply know he’s neither Ryan Hollins nor Henry Rollins and now I’m really looking for that upcoming Henry Hollins in a future draft to round everything out, and I don’t know if he was worth $2M to move up to secure.  I mean, not that the Warriors are cash poor or any shit like that, but was anybody else really going after Rollins?  And all I know about Gui Santos is that there are rumors he might be traded and you can really press his buttons.

Orlando Magic

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #1, #32, #35 (DV 98%, 2nd)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Paolo Banchero (#1), Caleb Houstan (#32), 2028 2nd (LAL/WAS), $$
Obligatory Commentary: The Magic threw everybody a curveball by taking the guy every pundit was convinced was going to go #3 overall at #1.  Then again, there was very little differentiation between the Big Three, and if you had asked me, I’d have gone with Paolo because you can give him the ball  and ask him to get his own bucket, and Chet scares me.  So I’m all good with it, but again we’ve got to recognize that you don’t get credit for taking the best overall player at #1.  I say it every year.  Well, maybe not the Anthony Bennett year, but that draft was special.  Like Jerry’s Kids special.  I like Houstan – another kid who will need to develop, but at the very least has nice size for a 3, – but selling out of the #35 pick just seems wrong for a team like the Magic who need all the help they can get in a  draft that I do think is pretty deep in that range.  So even if they DO get the best player out of the draft, I think they really could have done more.

Houston Rockets

Grade: B-

Assets Coming In: #3, #17 (DV 71%, 3rd), Christian Wood (1/$14.3)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jabari Smith Jr. (#3), Tari Eason (#17), TyTy Washington (#29), Boban Marjanovic (1/$3.5), Sterling Brown (1/$3), Trey Burke (1/$3po), Marquese Chriss (1/$2.2), 2025+2027 MIN 2nd
Obligatory Commentary: It’s not every day that the presumed #1 pick in he draft falls to you at #3, but then again, I’m not entirely sure that the Rockets, who were linked to Banchero since the moment their lotto combo was selected third, wouldn’t have preferred the expected case to reality. They tipped their hand on taking one of the Big Three a bit when they traded Wood to get…like…to get not a whole fucking lot. Well, I mean a whole fucking lot of nothing is more like it. And for as much as I liked Wood when he was on the draft board, and as much as I’ve taken way too much time to re-like Wood after his career started so unspectacularly, the fact is, they really threw him away and got nothing but TyTy to show for it. Not for nothing, TyTy is the lowest highest-picked Kentucky Wildcat (because Sharpe, who never played a second, doesn’t count) since (gotta look this up) 2009 when Jodie Meeks went #41. OK, break’s over! Anyway, the Rockets ended up with the kinda-more-complementary Big Three piece and a crappy Kentucky PG, and then…Tari Eason. Eason salvages things a bit. He has huge…tracts of hands, reminding in that way of a taller Kawhi Leonard, so let’s not argue about who didn’t start at LSU and who transferred from Cincy after his freshman year. I like him. I don’t love him, and some folks who thought he was pushing his way towards top five in the draft I figure were overvaluing a bit, but he’ll stick. Can he save the draft? Nah, but he can mitigate it.

Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #43 (DV 5%, 25th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Moussa Diabaté (#43)
Obligatory Commentary: I really, really, really wish that “Ndsquirrel” was a real Guinean middle name. Oh, how I want to just mic drop and walk away after that one, but how can one completely forget that Diabaté looked like an extremely raw but long, rangy, athletic prospect in his one year at Michigan? I think if he had been patient and waited a year he was not only an easy first rounder, but maybe he pushes into the lottery. Now, that doesn’t mean that he succeeds, just that he may have missed out on a ton of cash when he inevitably doesn’t pan out because he’s not really all that much of a basketball player. He’ll get his chance, and at #43 it was a chance worth taking, but I don’t figure he really pans out, and first round money is worth twice as much in Guinea (so I’ve been told).

Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: C+

Assets Coming In: #23 (DV 14%, 20th), Danny Green (1/$10)
Assets At The End Of The Day: DeAnthony Melton (2/$16.3)
Obligatory Commentary: The Sixers, man. What do you do with the Sixers? They spend like a year and a half telling you that they wouldn’t trade Matisse Thybulle for the next coming of LeBron, then they turn around and try to package him to get teams to take the #23 pick off their hands? I just heard you offer an apology for all the defensively overrated players of our time. Is that correct? Of course, in the end they simply ended up offloading Danny Green and saving a bit of luxury tax. And Melton’s OK. So I don’t hate it. So many drafts I don’t hate tonight. So it goes.

Miami Heat

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #27 (DV 11%, 23rd), What would have been pick #54 forfeited for tampering in the Kyle Lowry free agency
Assets At The End Of The Day: Nikola Jović (#27)
Obligatory Commentary: Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight: Nikola Jović will be the lowest-valued Nikola Jo_ić of the decade. And the other Jo_ić got drafted in the second. That said, Jović has a legit chance to be a good shooter and might surprise. It’s a good try. Don’t hate it, don’t love it…the one thing I hate is how freaking flat this draft is. So, so, so, so many deserving Cs in this draft is going to make final grading incredibly hard. Tough to find an A, tough to find an F, this has never happened. Who knew?

Indiana Pacers

Grade: C

Assets Coming In: #6, #31, #58 (DV 53%, 6th), 2026 2nd, $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Bennedict Mathurin (#6), Andrew Nembhard (#31), Kendall Brown (#48), (something from MIL for #58 but who knows what)
Obligatory Commentary: You know, I like Mathurin and all, but he’s a bit of a reach at #6 when you’ve got Sharpe and Daniels available for you. Too small to really play SF, and Indy has Haliburton and Hield and Duarte and hasn’t traded Brogdon (yet) at guard and I think they could have done a bit better. Then, with some intriguing players on the board they grab a pedestrian-numb Nembhard at #31, which seems like a complete waste. They maneuvered a bit to get Kendall Brown, and that has a chance to pay off big, but in the end he got seriously overshadowed by teammate Sochan and I’m not sure there’s enough potential there to really bump the grade.

Detroit Pistons

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #5, #46 (DV 50%, 8th), Jerami Grant (1/$21)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jaden Ivey (#5), Jalen Duren (#13), Gabriele Procida (#36), Kemba Walker (1/$9, bought out), 2026 2nd (best of POR/NOP)
Obligatory Commentary: Do I really want to diss the Pistons for getting Jaden Ivey? I mean, I didn’t really want to do that before the draft happened. Pretty much everybody had Ivey as the +1 in a 3+1 draft, and everybody LOVES being the +1, amirite? And hey, no doubt Ivey is quicker than a stick driven into frozen winter shit (and even faster than that) and he has a great stepback…if you ignore the fact that it’s like 1) a travel and 2) he steps back like 10 feet which leaves him with the longest average 3PT shot in college this year. If Ivey turns out to be Dwyane Wade, then sheesh, he’s a steal, but is that remotely plausible? I don’t know, but my first hint came from draft night, when Ivey spent more time on camera crying like someone took his Barbie than any player since…yeah, since ever. I mean, I get it, you just got drafted top-5, there’s an excuse to get emotional, but Ivey didn’t seem to have the tools to handle it. (Contrast Keegan: cool, calm, collected.) So man, wait until you realize that NBA players are better than you, and you gotta work. Further reflection, and it does look like the media’s 3+1 had the wrong +1 (including the incredibly insulting draft photos with the Big Three and Ivey, Keegan nowhere to be seen). The media loves the fast guard, the NBA teams love the do-it-all modern PF. So it goes. Poo-tee-weet. So maybe the Pistons didn’t exactly make out with #5. They did, on the other hand, manage to turn Jerami Grant (the Matisse Thybulle of Georges Seurats) into Jalen Duren, the epitome of Muppet Baby Dwight Howards. The comparisons to, say, Bam Adebayo are way out of line, as Duren can’t pass or score on his own, but he can rebound and he can play D and he has a role. At one point early on I had him pegged at #4 overall. A bit enthusiastic, but at #13 and the price of a Jerami Grant, this could work out. Gabriele Procida is my second-favorite Gabrielle after Reece, and I don’t care how good of an NBA career he has, that’s not going to change. So, sorry, Detroit, it was salvageable, but you didn’t quite manage it.

Chicago Bulls

Grade: C-

Assets Coming In: #18 (DV 18%, 17th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Dalen Terry (#18)
Obligatory Commentary: I just don’t know what to think about Dalen Terry. I mean, from time to time he flashed some serious skill, and his size is great for a guard, but he didn’t really stand out most of the time, and man, while he’d have been a nice bargain in the late 30s, I’m not sure he’s value in the late teens. I’d probably have taken 10 guys on the board in front of him, and I’m a Pac-12 guy, so maybe the Bulls didn’t pull this one off.

Denver Nuggets

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #21 (DV 15%, 19th), JaMychal Green (1/$8.2), 2027 1st (prot. 1-5 thru 2029), (something to POR for 46 but we don’t know what)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Christian Braun (#21), Peyton Watson (#30), Ismaël Kamagate (#46), two future 2nds (via OKC, unknown)
Obligatory Commentary: Man, you can’t accuse the Nuggets of not overdrafting players here. Braun had a chance to slip to the second. Watson had a chance to slip a lot farther. No guarantee Kamagate even gets nabbed. So they have to hope that the “don’t get cute, get your dude” principle holds here. Despite the fact that I would have jumped to take a second-round chance on Braun and Watson, the chance that this draft actually pans out is low enough that I have to grade it down. I’m having enough trouble finding bad grades as it is.

Boston Celtics

Grade: D+

Assets Coming In: #53 (DV 3%, 26th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: JD Davison (#53)
Obligatory Commentary: Man, if you got credit for hair in the NBA, Davison would be a first rounder. But his game just didn’t really give us any reason to draft him. Let’s just say that turnovers were a…massive problem. And I know it’s only #53, but the chance that Davison makes any positive impact on the NBA is basically zero, so why reward this mistake with a good grade?

Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #14, #39, #56 (DV 31%, 13th), 2017 draft rights to Sasha Vezenkov, $1.75M cash
Assets At The End Of The Day: Ochai Agbaji (#14), Khalifa Diop (#39), Isaiah Mobley (#49), Luke Travers (#56)
Obligatory Commentary: Did Ochai go too high in this draft? Maybe? Maybe a bit? Honestly I like Agbaji, so I can’t come down on the pick too hard (and, BTW, as a guy who was advocating for Ochai to come out last year as a total steal when he was mocked in the late first/early second I shouldn’t) but there might have been a bit more value to be had at #14. But the remainder of the Cleveland draft was Punt, Punt, Punt. Don’t think we didn’t notice that the Cavs wasted a pick to draft their franchise center’s brother. I mean, I guess keeping it in the family has worked for Cleveland (ain’t that right, thick black glasses boy?) but really, the only good thing that has ever happened to the Cavs is that their prodigal draftee decided to come home from South Beach and gift them a championship before heading out to let’s-write-fake-racist-graffiti-on-our-own-security-gate land. (Oh shit, I’m going to hit “publish” on this, aren’t I?) Evan Mobley is not going to change that, much less Isaiah. Nor is Diop, and honestly Luke Travers is one of four players in this draft I hadn’t even heard of prior to draft night so I’m not optimistic about his chances. Cleveland did nothing to convince me here.

New York Knicks

Grade: D

Assets Coming In: #11, #42 (DV 34%, 11th), Kemba Walker (1/$9), 2023+2024 2nds, 2023 UTA 2nd, 2023 DAL/MIA 2nd
Assets At The End Of The Day: Trevor Keels (#42), 2023 1st (DET, 1-18 prot. decreasing thru ’27), 2023 1st (WAS, 1-14 prot. decreasing thru ’26), 2025 1st (MIL, 1-4 prot.)
Obligatory Commentary: This grade may not ACTUALLY be related to the draft itself, but I have to point out that Scott Perry loves to make large numbers of incredibly complicated draft-day trades that make my bookkeeping a serious mess. I mean, for the love of all that is holy, I have to deal not only with movers that are 7.5 hours late and unloading destroyed boxes in 100 degree heat, and then with a broken A/C and an orange cat in a tent in my living room while watching the NBA draft on re-cord, but then I have to deal with Scott Perry making the draft his own personal playground? It’s more than I signed up for, Scott! But then, when the Knicks R-U-N-N-O-F-T and turn a decent pick into three crappy picks and the bowling ball that is Trevor Keels? Damn, I’m in a tight spot! And in the end, I gotta say that it was a waste of assets. Plus Perry pissed me off. And the draft is incredibly flat. So the grade sucks. Sorry, Knicks.

Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: #24 (DV 13%, 21st), what would have been pick #54 forfeited for tampering in the Bogdan Bogdanovic free agency, (something for IND for #58 but who knows what)
Assets At The End Of The Day: MarJon Beauchamp (#24), Hugo Besson (#58)
Obligatory Commentary: Sometimes you have to talk about the second pick first and get it out of the way. Like this time, where it’s appropriate to make a cologne joke and then forget all about any draftee named Hugo Bosson. Beauchamp is at least a slightly different story. The kid is…a bit older than most kids his age. His journey is pretty amazing, going from Yakima to prep school in Arizona (same place Sharpe went) back to community college in Yakima to the G-League to the NBA draft…and he’s still a full year younger than Keegan Murray! Also, he’s going to wash out. Kid worked hard and got his ass drafted, and I gotta give full credit for that, but he’s a footnote. The Bucks don’t really need a lot of help right now, but they’re not getting any from the 2022 draft.

Utah Jazz

Grade: D-

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-27th), A new team color scheme
Assets At The End Of The Day: Some crappy, crappy uniforms
Obligatory Commentary: So sometime in I think April, the Jazz came out saying that they were going to change their color scheme to black and yellow, then later in the month they’re talking about purple, and for all I know it’s a huge troll job, so they get a nice lovely hot pink here until this is settled.  Shoot,  maybe they get a nice lovely hot pink here forever because they deserve it.  Uni trolling…sheesh.  As it turns out, they’re going with some bizarro Black-and-Yellow felt-looking job that makes the 1938-1939 Oregon Ducks unis look new all over again supplemented with the Purple Mountain’s Majesty retros from a decade or two ago.  Shoot, maybe they should have gone with pink.  Also, they had no draft picks this time around and just sat it out.  So at least their uni issues gave me something to talk about.

Phoenix Suns

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-27th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Absolutely nothing.
Obligatory Commentary: So, when you’re staring an ignominious playoff exit, a 37-year-old former star PG, and an apparent unwillingness to re-up your 2018 #1 overall pick in the face, can you afford to have no draft picks and do nothing on draft night?  Can you sit it out with a few Dos Equis on the beach at Cabo and expect that everything is going to turn out great?  No.  No you can’t.  You do WORK on draft night.  The Suns didn’t.  And if within the next few seasons the Suns become the weaker member of  the Suns-Kings Alliance, who is to blame but the guys who thought that Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges was enough.  That’s not even enough to fill our house with love.  (Here’s looking at you, Frank The Tank!)

Brooklyn Nets

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0%, t-27th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: No happy campers
Obligatory Commentary: I mean Kyrie’s pissed, Durant’s pissed, Ben Simmons is…Ben Simmons, and you decide to do absolutely nothing on draft night.  That’s not a win.  Especially in a draft that I like enough top to bottom that  I’m having a hard time giving out F’s on.

Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #22, #29, #47 (DV 28%, 15th), DeAnthony Melton (2/$16.3), 2024 LAL 2nd, $$
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jake LaRavia (#19), David Roddy (#23), Kennedy Chandler (#38), Vince Williams Jr. (#47), Danny Green (1/$10), future 2nd from MIN
Obligatory Commentary: Finally, a draft that I hate!  LaRavia is a late riser that I have serious, serious doubts about.  Roddy is an undersized big man without a ton of promise (sez me) and Chandler is an undersized PG (how can you even manage?) that didn’t impress.  And of course, Vince Williams Jr. is comparing himself to Vince Williams Sr., who last I checked played zero minutes in the NBA.  But a future Minny second makes it all better?  Nah.  This didn’t work a bit.

Washington Wizards

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #10, #54 (DV 34%, 12th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Johnny Davis (#10), Yannick Nzosa (#54)
Obligatory Commentary: Yep, somebody was going to draft Johnny Davis.  Somebody was going to fall on that sword.  That it was the Wizards gives me neither joy nor sorrow, as I have no attachment or hatred of the franchise whatsoever.  But let me say, while I’m more likely than not to look like an asshole 5 years from now, Johnny Davis strikes me as a kid who can’t hit an outside shot and is going to try to make a career on a midrange and a prayer.  As in “Tommy’s got his six-string in hock” prayer level.  If  you want a Johnny who shoots from midrange, you could have had one that is an inch taller, has 2.5 inches longer wingspan, and shot significantly better from three as an undrafted free agent (Johnny Juzang). As far as I can tell, Davis’ only real asset was his rebounding, which was a factor of his coach insisting that he stayed back in transition to board.  He ain’t going to be a great rebounder in the NBA.  So you got a bust in Johnny Davis, and you got Yannick No-Sir.  Great draft, Wizards.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #2, #12, #30, #34 (DV 100%, 1st), two future 2nds (unknown), 2023 DEN 1st (prot), 2023 DET 1st (prot), 2023 WAS 1st (prot)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Chet Holmgren (#2), Ousmane Dieng (#11), Jalen Williams (#12), Jaylin Williams (#34), JaMychal Green (1/$8.2), 2027 1st (DEN, prot. 1-5 thru 2029)
Obligatory Commentary: Yeah, I’m going to go there.  Chet is going to be a disaster.  Here we’ve got a kid who evidently refused to participate in the NBA’s standard heart health test.  Why?  Well, not like I’m a medical expert, but look up “Marfan Syndrome” and get back to me.  I repeat, I am not a medical doctor, and I am not able to make a medical diagnosis of a person I have never seen in person.  But, again, look up “Marfan Syndrome” and tell me what you think about Chet Holmgren skipping the NBA heart protocols.  Now, I have none, no, zero ill will towards Chet, but it sure seems to me like the kid might end up losing his NBA career due to medical considerations.  And that’s a terrible price to pay at the #2 overall pick, even for a team that has stacked up draft consideration in a way that would make Sam Hinkie blush.  Now, again, nothing would make me happier than to see a great-shooting, solid-handling, amazing-weak-side-defender at a legit 7 feet become an NBA mainstay.  When we talk about unicorns, Chet Holmgren is exactly the one-horned beast we are discussing.  He could be transformative.  He could also be forced to retire, because even a stingy-ass asshole like me would rather see a kid walk away with tens of millions of unearned dollars than drop dead on the court.  Bottom line – I can’t endorse Holmgren.  But from there, it’s not like the Thunder’s draft got any better.  They spent three first round picks (they had to spend them eventually) to get a lottery ticket in Dieng, and then in a moment of pure confusion (it’s understandable) they took both Jalen/Jaylin Williamses just to make sure they got the right one. (Neither is the right one.)  The Thunder still have a gazillion future picks and eventually will have to hit on one, but I just don’t think this year was it.

San Antonio Spurs

Grade: F

Assets Coming In: #9, #20, #25, #38 (DV 68%, 4th)
Assets At The End Of The Day: Jeremy Sochan (#9), Malaki Branham (#20), Blake Wesley (#25), 2024 LAL 2nd, $$
Obligatory Commentary: OK, so I’m not going to recapitulate my passive-aggressive anti-Spurs-drafting screed yet again this year, but what did they accomplish here? Their main piece is a “defensive” guy in Sochan whose main highlight in my mind was getting backdoored on the baseline three plays in a row. Same backdoor play. He didn’t figure it out. But hey, he colors his hair, so he’s going to be a star. My ass. It doesn’t get much better. Branham is a freshman who should by all rights have established his value in his sophomore year instead being overdrafted at #20. Wesley didn’t prove anything as a frosh at Notre Dame. The Spurs came into the draft with the 4th-best draft value and if they come out in the top half they’ll be lucky. That’s a paddlin’.

OK, so I’ve always wondered just how much profit you can make with what I would call a “hedge bet” (I don’t know if there’s a proper term…apparently this would be “line arbitrage betting”), by which I mean finding two books with a differing over/under, taking the over on the low book, taking the under on the high book, and hoping that the result comes in between so you can collect both.  Since it’s not possible to collect zero, you don’t have to get “lucky” too often to turn a profit, and since you count on the books to be at least somewhat close to the actual result, it might just slide into the sweet spot more often than you’d think.  Since the typical book pays $100 for a $110 bet, paying $220 on a play like this will return at least $210 (-$10), and occasionally will return $420 (+$200).  If you hit 1 in 20, you break even!

Fortunately, http://www.theline.com has a side-by-side list of two books, where 19 of the 30 NBA teams have a different over/under.  (Note that two of the lines are not half-win lines but integer lines – the notes indicate that in this case if the total hits exactly the bet is returned – so that’s still worth a shot.)  I’m not going to record which book had which line, as it doesn’t really matter.

I’d like to mimic my standard $5115 bet, but I’m not sure how that will go.  Also, it would seem to make sense to put proportionally more money on the lines that are farther apart because there’s a bigger sweet spot.  OK, well, I’ve done the math, and there are 48 total half-games separating the teams, so if I bet $55 on each team for each half-game margin (or $110 total per pair of lines per half-game margin), that’s $5280.  A tiny bit more than the amount I bet in the standard version of the money-saver, but good enough for government work.  (This exercise is not funded by government money.)

And with that said, time to do some non-gambling!

(Odds taken from http://www.theline.com 8/23/19, from DraftKings’ and PointsBet sportsbooks)

Team Take Under Take Over Act. Wins Wager Total (1/2 on each) Return
Chicago Bulls 42.5 39.5 46 $660 $630
Charlotte Hornets 38.5 36.5 43 $440 $420
Cleveland Cavaliers 28.5 26.5 44 $440 $420
Houston Rockets 27.5 25.5 20 $440 $420
Orlando Magic 24 22.5 22 $330 $315
Atlanta Hawks 47.5 46.5 43 $220 $210
Boston Celtics 47.5 46.5 51 $220 $210
Brooklyn Nets 56.5 55.5 44 $220 $210
Denver Nuggets 47.5 46.5 48 $220 $210
Detroit Pistons 25.5 24.5 23 $220 $210
Indiana Pacers 43.5 42.5 25 $220 $210
Los Angeles Clippers 45.5 44.5 42 $220 $210
Los Angeles Lakers 53.5 52.5 33 $220 $210
New York Knicks 41.5 40.5 37 $220 $210
Philadelphia 76ers 51.5 50.5 51 $220 $420
Sacramento Kings 35.5 34.5 30 $220 $210
Toronto Raptors 37.5 36.5 48 $220 $210
Utah Jazz 52.5 51.5 49 $220 $210
Memphis Grizzlies 41.5 41 56 $110 $105

I don’t need to explain my thinking here – it’s completely pre-determined based on the lines.  Yay!  Easy writeup!

The Results…

Well, only one team came in for me, but it was *almost* enough to bring me even.  I came up to “winnings” of $5250 on $5280 laid out.  It’s weird though, of the 19 teams where there was an arbitrage play, the average miss was by more than 7 games.  That seems like a lot.  Only six were within three games of success, while six others missed by double digits (The Lakers by 20!).  I have to admit, I expected that the shotgun would have a slightly tighter grouping.

Well, the pandemic got the best of me last year, and I forgot to actually do the 2020-2021 Over/Under Moneysaver, so my streak of 5 straight years has been reset.  With last year’s poor results, I’m down to $26565 won on $25575 wagered – so $990 up, which is not even a 4% return. Obviously not quite as good as investing in Moderna.  I’ll let stand the paragraph that explains why the odd dollar values, right here, and then just get on with it:

What the heck is the deal with $5115? I’ll get to that in a minute. But the idea is that I have to lay a bet on each of the 30 over/unders. Rather than allow myself to distribute the money completely freely, I’m going to play it like a pick ’em with confidence points. For instance, if I think the line on the Sacramento Kings this year is really, really wrong I’m going to put $30 on them, then $29 on the line I think is next safest, and so on. Except $30 doesn’t really work great, because (as best as I can figure – remember, I’m not a big gambler) your typical over/under bet pays at +110, or in other words, wager $11 to win $10. So if I bet $30 and won, then I’d get the bet back plus $27.27272727. That’s just tough to deal with. So instead of betting $30, I’m going to bet $30*11 = $330, so that if I win, I get $300 on top. It just makes everything come out in whole numbers. And that means that the total I have to wager is $5115.

And with that said, time to do some non-gambling!

(Odds taken from http://www.theline.com 8/23/19, from DraftKings’ sportsbook)

Team O/U Wins My Pick Act. Wins Wager Return
Los Angeles Clippers 45.5 Over 42 $330 $0
Minnesota Timberwolves 34.5 Under 46 $319 $0
Utah Jazz 51.5 Over 49 $308 $0
Detroit Pistons 24.5 Over 23 $297 $0
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 Under 24 $286 $0
Miami Heat 48.5 Over 53 $275 $525
Milwaukee Bucks 54.5 Over 51 $264 $0
Atlanta Hawks 46.5 Over 43 $253 $0
Chicago Bulls 42.5 Over 46 $242 $462
Phoenix Suns 51.5 Over 64 $231 $441
Sacramento Kings 35.5 Over 30 $220 $0
New York Knicks 41.5 Over 37 $209 $0
Houston Rockets 27.5 Under 20 $198 $378
Cleveland Cavaliers 26.5 Under 44 $187 $0
Brooklyn Nets 56.5 Over 44 $176 $0
Golden State Warriors 48.5 Over 53 $165 $315
Toronto Raptors 36.5 Under 48 $154 $0
Charlotte Hornets 38.5 Under 43 $143 $0
San Antonio Spurs 28.5 Under 34 $132 $0
Boston Celtics 46.5 Under 51 $121 $0
Orlando Magic 22.5 Over 22 $110 $0
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 Under 52 $99 $0
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Under 25 $88 $168
New Orleans Pelicans 38.5 Over 36 $77 $0
Denver Nuggets 46.5 Under 48 $66 $0
Portland Trailblazers 44.5 Under 27 $55 $105
Memphis Grizzlies 41.5 Under 56 $44 $0
Washington Wizards 34.5 Under 35 $33 $0
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 Over 51 $22 $42
Los Angeles Lakers 53.5 Under 33 $11 $21

There are a couple of things to consider when trying to make these predictions.

The first is that over the last four years the books have predicted 10/16/12/10/16 wins more than were actually available.  This year it’s 17 too many wins.  This means that once again, it is time to err on the side of the under when there’s no clearly correct choice.

The second is that inter-conference records can mean something.  But you know what? I went through an absolute ton of work last time around and got nothing out of it, so I’m going to skip it this year.  The West is still better than the East.  Guess accordingly.

And let me point out that this year, I’m jumping the gun a little bit with free agency not fully done – I would say that the biggest ones left are Oladipo and Markkanen – and the Ben Simmons situation up in the air.  That’s the way it goes, because if you make a bet now, the bookies aren’t going to let you off the hook if Simmons gets traded, that shit is baked in to the odds.  But final odds may be quite a bit different than where they sit now for some teams.

And now, finally, I’m ready to try to make these projections.  Before each team’s writeup, I’m going to list the Over/Under line, followed by the team’s Pythagorean last year, adjusted for an 82-game schedule (though for some teams that really won’t be worth much).

The Stupid Lines

Los Angeles Clippers: (45.5/56)  I don’t really know what is going on with this line.  I mean, you take Kawhi and Paul George and you fit basically anybody around them, and they’re going to beat 45.5. They underperformed their Pythagorean last year, but they’ve got like 10 games of slack here.  OVER.  All the way OVER.

Minnesota: (34.5/27) Minnesota was terrible last year, they didn’t even have a draft pick, and all they added was Taurean Prince.  They’re totally tanking to get that draft pick THIS year, and they’ll miss 35 games by about 15. UNDER.

Utah: (51.5/63) The Jazz absolutely killed it last year, and they’re bringing back their top 7 players while trying to see what they can get from Rudy Gay.  52 wins should be a piece of cake. OVER.

Detroit: (24.5/30) Cade Cunningham. OVER.

Oklahoma City: (23.5/17) The Thunder outperformed their Pythagorean by about 8 games last year.  They’re tanking HARD this year, and they won’t make that mistake again. UNDER.

Miami: (48.5/41)  The Heat finished strong last year, and then turned Goran Dragic into Kyle Lowry.  Umm, OVER? OVER.

The I-Feel-OK-About-This Lines

Milwaukee: (54.5/55) Take a team that just won the championship.  Don’t touch the top seven players.  Assume they’re going to do a bit better in the regular season than the did the previous year.  OVER.

Atlanta: (46.5/47)  The Hawks are adding Jalen Johnson to a team that was locked in and is basically unchanged from last year.  Seems like a good bet. OVER.

Chicago: (42.5/39)  The Bulls made some major overhauls this offseason, with up to five 1000-minute players out (Young, Temple, Satoransky, Valentine, and maybe Markkanen) and two and a half major acquisitions coming back in DeRozan, Lonzo, and a fully-integrated Vucevic.  And they grabbed Koufos, Jr., who I guess is OK if a lot spendy for a backup PG.  You figure they’re going to start Ball/LaVine/DeRozan/PWilliams/Vucevic (which is kinda crazy as 4 of the 5 went to school in SoCal) and I really think that’s a better team.  Then there’s a chance that Markkanen comes back on his QO.  Maybe this is the right time to jump on this line before the bettors catch up. OVER.

Phoenix: (51.5/56)  The Suns are basically the same team they were last year.  They brought back their top-8 players and their big splashes were Landry Shamet and JaVale McGee.  And the line is giving them 4.5 relative to last year’s Pythagorean.  I know Paul is getting older, but barring injuries I think they get it. OVER.

Sacramento: (35.5/32) The Kings haven’t done a ton this offseason in terms of volume.  They brought Holmes and mid-season acquisition Harkless back, replaced the never-used Whiteside with Tristan Thompson and Alex Len, and shipped off Delon Wright.  There’s always a chance that they’re going to look a good deal different by the time the season starts, as they’re among the serious suitors for Ben Simmons.  But even assuming they hit the ground with the team they have, they should have optimism that they will finally get some production from Bagley, and they drafted a serious X-factor in Davion Mitchell.  This kid’s defense is amazing, and it’s infectious.  Just watch any game from their Summer League championship and you’ll see how Off-Night drags the defensive effort out of everybody.  Fox and Haliburton haven’t been good statistical defenders so far, but both OUGHT to be. Mitchell should help that just by proxy. I’m going to take the OVER.  It has a chance of being a lot OVER, but it should be at least some OVER.

New York: (41.5/47) If all the Knicks did this offseason was swap out Bullock for Fournier, I’d say they were in trouble.  But picking up Kemba on the cheap to replace Elfrid is huge.  Considering their solid Pythagorean last year, they seem like a good bet to finish over .500.  OVER.

Houston: (27.5/23) Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have a chance of being GOOD, but this is a tank year for the Rockets.  Wall and Gordon gave them almost nothing last year, and I can’t imagine they’re going to ask for more this year.  Expect the Rockets to sit in the low 20s, not the high 20s.  UNDER.

Cleveland: (26.5/21)  If I believed in Evan Mobley, I might have hopes for Cleveland getting a few wins.  But their Pythagorean was awful last year, I don’t have much faith in the Sexton/Garland/Okoro trio, and Mobley strikes me as waaaay too passive. Probably safe to take the UNDER.

Brooklyn: (56.5/52) 57 is a lot of wins, but Durant, Harden, and Kyrie should have that much in them.  I’ll take the OVER.

Golden State:  (48.5/43) The Warriors let Oubre and Bazemore go, but seeing as they’re getting Klay back, as long as he’s at full strength, this should make up for it.  Kuminga might be a project, and Moody’s contributions may not be huge in his rookie year, but Steph/Klay/Draymond should get 49, right?  OVER.

Toronto: (36.5/40) Dragic for Lowry is a big downgrade.  Picking the Swiss Army Spoon at #4 doesn’t fix that, and I think Toronto is in for a down year.  UNDER.

Charlotte:  (38.5/36) Bismack (presumably), Cody Zeller, and Devonte’ Graham out, Oubre and Mason Plumlee in with Bouknight from the draft.  The Hornets definitely got smaller, and the two SGs they brought in don’t thrill me.  LaMelo’s efficiency is awful.  This does not look like a team built to be better than last year. UNDER.

San Antonio: (28.5/36) DeRozan is gone, and Thaddeus and McDizzle are not going to make up for it.  This team is tanking, and the only question is how badly.  They might get close to 30 wins, but I’ll guess they settle at 27-28. UNDER.

The Tough Calls

Boston:  (46.5/44)  The Celtics were basically a .500 team last year.  But now Kemba is gone, and swapping out Tristan Thompson for the ancient Horford probably doesn’t move the needle much.  They did grab Josh Richardson and Schroder on the cheap, but it may be possible to have a team with too many wings.  Gotta go UNDER.

Orlando: (22.5/19) If Gary Harris had done anything at all for the Magic last year, this might have been an easier call.  But he really didn’t.  Vucevic is gone, and I don’t think Wendell Carter is a great replacement. But the bottom line is that the Magic were just miserable after the all-star break last year and I don’t know if Suggs/Wagner is enough to pull them up. Then again, the East is bad, and 23 wins is not a lot. I guess I’ll say OVER?

Dallas: (48.5/47)  Richardson is out, Bullock is in, and nobody apparently likes playing with Luka.  So, basically the same as last year.  I’ll go with my heart and not my head, and take the UNDER.

Indiana: (42.5/41) The Pacers basically swapped out McDizzle and Aaron Holiday for an older rookie in Chris Duarte, unless Isaiah Jackson contributes in his first year.  That’s not a lot of real improvement, if any at all.  UNDER.

New Orleans: (38.5/40) The Pelicans actually have a decent amount of turnover. But losing Bledsoe may not hurt much, and swapping Adams for Valanciunas is a win.  Drop Lonzo, add Graham, add Satoransky, add a bit of Temple…Kira should step things up a bit…I think they got better. OVER.

Denver: (46.5/54) Jamal Murray tore his ACL, and the Nuggets have done basically nothing to replace him.  If he contributes at all this season it will likely be in a limited role, and that changes the entire complexion of a team that finished third in the conference.  Jokic is great, but if anything else goes wrong, they can’t get to six games over .500. I’m going to hedge my bets with the UNDER.

Portland: (44.5/46) I’ve gotta believe that things aren’t quite so Kum-ba-yah in Portland with Lillard as all parties are trying to make it look.  If the Blazers don’t do something crazy like trade Lillard for Simmons, I feel like somebody’s got to take a step down, and Portland might just be the ones to do it. UNDER.

Memphis: (41.5/43) Trading out Valanciunas for Stephen Adams was definitely a step down.  Outside of that, and adding Bledsoe, who is kind of looking done, the Grizz haven’t made a whole lot of changes, and adding Ziaire in the draft is unlikely to help this year.  The hope is that JJJ comes back healthy and he can pick up some of that Jonas slack.  But with the money they’re playing Bledsoe, they have to play him, and he might hurt enough to sink them a few games.  I’m torn on this one. UNDER.

The Total Wild Cards

Washington: (34.5/36) Anytime you trade away Russell Westbrook, you lose.  Of course, the line seems to have taken this into account, so I’m not at all sure.  If the Wiz are to trade away Beal and go whole hog on a rebuild, this would be easy, but I kind of don’t think that will happen.  Which makes it a tough call, but UNDER.

Philadelphia: (50.5/55)  I’m going to go on the assumption that Ben Simmons is gone, and that the Sixers will take the best offer they can get and run with it.  Still, they’re got Embiid and Harris and a good supporting crew, and you figure that Simmons is going to net them at LEAST some players on the level of a Hield/Bagley haul.  The only thing that could really mess this up is the front office overvaluing Simmons, holding on to him, and then watching him tank the team – because dude is DONE with Philly.  But somehow I don’t think that will happen.  OVER.

Los Angeles Lakers: (53.5/48)  So here’s the crazy thing: the Lakers lost their top four players in terms of minutes from last year, and they’re probably better now. LeBron/Davis/Westbrook is formidable…when they all play.  This team is built to be full-strength for the playoffs, and I get the feeling that they’re going to put it on cruise control for most of the season, just doing enough to get a first-round bye. UNDER.

The Results…

This is going to be an absolute bloodbath.  There’s like a week left on the schedule, but I’m looking at already blowing at least 17 of these with 5 still open and some of those unlikely.  But hey, I got my least-confident pick (the Lakers) right…by a lot.  Wow.  Of the five that were still open, I only got one, for a total of 9 correct picks out of 30.  $2457 return on $5115 wagered.  Absolute bloodbath.  I should be banned from ever commenting on the internet again.

Once again, it’s the annual Draft Grades Thread!  Of course, it can’t be a draft-grade day without it being 105 degrees outside, but they’re saying the breeze is going to drop it down to window-opening time by 9 PM (yeah, right!) and at the very least the fresh door sweep I installed actually seems to work wonders against the heat.  I’ve got me five tall-boy ciders (and wow, I hope I don’t drink them all!  Update: only 4!) and the Dodgers have just traded for Scherzer and Trea Turner, so I’ve got a game rolling in the background…let’s grade!

A ridiculous 32 picks in this draft – 7 in the first round and 25 (!!) in the second round – had already been traded by the time the lottery was concluded, including each of the final 15 picks.  This is nutty.  And since you know that there will be more trades on draft day (and perhaps before), it will be interesting to see just how many picks are made this year without ever being traded.  So I won’t have to look it up again, I’ll mark the picks that were untraded through the draft green, and I’ll come up with a count when all is said and done.  And the final number is: 19.  Only 19 out of 60 picks in this draft were never traded – less than a third!  Only two teams – the Kings and the Spurs – didn’t trade either of their own picks, and, man, the Kings were TRYING.  Anyway, the Wiki for the draft currently lists 42 different trades involving draft picks from this draft, and I think several that have been agreed to but not yet executed from yesterday aren’t listed.  Don’t worry, those are all included here!

(The following paragraphs don’t change much from year to year, because why mess with success?)

As always, pre-draft trades, no matter when they happen, get included here as it’s basically the same difference.  Also, trades agreed to before the draft that can’t be executed until after the draft pretty much need to be included here.  And yes, this is true even for trades that don’t include a draft pick.  But once the draft is over, we’re done.  These are Draft Grades, not Free Agency Grades.  This may seem arbitrary.  Well, it is!  My draft write-up, my rules, baby!

When players are traded, I will list contract values to aid in consideration of how good/bad the contracts were, e.g. “Dude McHanging (2/$17.5g)”.  The number of years listed is the maximum contract length (including team/player options) unless I am convinced an option will not be picked up.  Money is in megabucks, a “g” by the money indicates a guaranteed total when some money is in question or may be dropped.  If I’m convinced an option will be picked up by either the player or the team, I’ll just act as if there’s no unguaranteed money.

A few years ago I added a tiny piece of info to the assets listings.  After evaluating methods of determining how much value any given draft pick has, I decided to use the values from a gentleman named Nick Restifo, who used the best two-year VORP over each drafted player’s career to determine the value of each draft slot.  Using Nick’s values I have added up each team’s relative draft value, and then normalized that to a maximum of ten (so the Pistons, coming into the draft, have a strength of 10 and should be hoping to get the best value out of the draft.  I’ve included this value as (DV x/10) following the listed picks. (Note that the asterisked DVs for OKC and BOS in 2021 are due to the fact that I calculated draft value *after* processing the pre-lotto trade that sent pick #16 to OKC, which I probably shouldn’t have done.  Oh well.)

Just like always, and unlike the pansies who normally do draft grades, sitting around giving the same damn grade to everybody (oh, that’s an “A”, and that’s an “A”…) I’m going to grade the fricking thing on a hard, hard curve.  30 teams, that means 6 As, 6 Bs, 6 Cs, 6 Ds, and 6 Fs.  Two plusses and two minuses for each grade except F, because what asshole gives out an F+?  YOU FAILED.  NO CONSOLATION PLUS FOR YOU.  And rather than rip apart a team for having only second round picks, I’m going to grade based on what the team had going into the draft, and what they had going out of it.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.  Here goes.

And with the season over and the NBA playoffs begun (never mind that like half of them are on Amazon Prime so I can’t watch them – good thing that my team isn’t in it but I guarandamntee you I won’t be subscribing to new streaming services just to watch the playoffs…it’s a moral stand at this point), it’s time for the 5-years-out hindsight review of the draft.  Now, I’ll admit I blew like the four best guys in the draft…but other than that I did really well!  In fact, though it’s a bit tough to be exact (partly because I’m often wishy-washy) if you wanted to be generous you could give me 26-of-30 in the second round, which is not bad at all.  Scroll down for the updated grades! 

The Grades:

Los Angeles Lakers

Grade: A+ (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #22 (DV 1.5/10, 18th), Kyle Kuzma (3/$39), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2/$17.9g), Montrezl Harrell (1/$9.7)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Russell Westbrook (2/$91), 2024 2nd (worse of WAS or MEM), 2028 2nd (WAS)

Obligatory Commentary: The Lakers came into this draft with the #22 pick, and they left with Russell Westbrook.  What’s the question, again?  LeBron, Anthony Davis, Russ.  I write nothing more.

Hindsight Commentary: OK, I’m pretty sure this was my biggest whiff of the draft grades.  While some people (like me, and apparently the Lakers) were still high on Russell Westbrook, he was finished being Russ.  Meanwhile the Lakers gave up six years of control of some pretty decent role players to get him.  And they tossed away their pick to do it!  The Lakers only won 33 games in their Westbrook year.  Devastating.

Golden State Warriors

Grade: A+ (Regrade: D?+)

Assets Coming In: #7, #14 (DV 6.5/10, 5th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jonathan Kuminga (#7), Moses Moody (#14)

Obligatory Commentary: I should open this grade simply by saying I love Jonathan Kuminga.  I hear the haters and I understand where they’re coming from, but this kid is a physical specimen and the talent is there, despite how difficult it was to see it in the G-League.  There was a singular play that sold me on Kuminga, where he forced a turnover in transition and recovered it in the backcourt, in a situation that, barring the position of the now-defender, screamed to grab it and take it to the hole.  But that defender was in position, and despite the whole thing playing out behind his back while he chased down the ball, he instantaneously turned and instead of driving to the hole, he dished to the streaking Todd who had come back down court and had a clear line.  No look.  And they tell me Kuminga doesn’t have BBIQ.  He was a clear top-5 guy to me, and in play for #1 to be honest.  To grab him at #7 is a coup.  Moody I’m less certain about.  He’s got the best pectoral girdle in the draft and a hell of a wingspan, but seems to tire out a bit early and isn’t an amazing shooter, nor does he have amazing size.  Some Kings fans loved him, but I figure he went about where he should have.  One strong point for this draft is that with Durant long gone, and the Curry/Klay/Draymond team aging and obviously unable to hold on for ever, it’s kind of looking like a real nice reload from where I sit, whether Wiseman ever pans out or not.

Hindsight Commentary: The problem here probably ends up being the team more than the players.  Sure, Moody has been underwhelming (though not horrible) as a lottery pick, but man, the Warriors managed to get just about nothing out of Kuminga.  Kerr would bench him, then bench him, then bench him, and then when the Kings came off hellbent to acquire him the Warriors steadfastly refused despite Kuminga being super unhappy.  Finally they sent him off to the Hawks for the corpse of PorkZinger.  Just terrible asset management left the Warriors in the negative relative to their expectation in this draft.

Orlando Magic

Grade: A (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #5, #8, #33 (DV 9.3/10, 3rd)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jalen Suggs (#5), Franz Wagner (#8), 2026 2nd (DET via LAC), $$

Obligatory Commentary: Suggs was pretty much thought to be a lock as the #4 prospect in the draft, and with Toronto potentially needing to replace Lowry in short order, it seemed like the Magic would be looking wing at #5, but with the Raptors passing on Suggs, all of a sudden Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz are very, very nervous.  On top of Suggs, the Magic snagged analytics darling Franz Wagner out from under the Kings’ nose, and they were right to do it.  I don’t even care that they punted on their second rounder, the Magic probably have the best overall (drafted) haul of the night.  Sure, they had #5 and #8 to do it, but in the end those are decent but not great picks, and if you end up with the best value in the draft (I mean, that’s an “if” until proven one way or the other by time) then it’s a heck of a win.

Hindsight Commentary: Amazing that the Magic drafted two pretty solid players in this draft and still ended up in the negative.  It did turn out to be a pretty strong draft, and they actually came away with the third-highest Win Share total of all teams in the draft…and it wasn’t enough because they had two top-8 picks.  Man, an F is really harsh here, but in the end Suggs has really not held up his end of the drafted-at-#5 bargain so despite Wagner currently being the #5 guy in the draft, it’s still an F.

Utah Jazz

Grade: A (Regrade: D-)

Assets Coming In: #30 (DV 0.9/10, 23rd)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jared Butler (#40), 2026 2nd (MEM, conveyable if 31-42)

Obligatory Commentary: The Jazz made a deal sending off Derrick Favors the day after the draft, and you know what?  I’M NOT GRADING THAT.  WASN’T DONE BY THE END OF THE DRAFT.  What kind of jerks are these guys anyway, nicknaming their state after fricking bees and trying to screw up my draft write-ups?  Yeah, I see you over there, not announcing what those picks you got from Memphis are (because seconds rounders aren’t just second rounders!) and trying to sneak some honeycomb while we’re not looking!  I see you!  That said, outside of the fact that he’s apparently got some sort of congenital heart issue that was kept pretty hush-hush until he went before the NBA’s Fitness To Play Panel during the draft process, Jared Butler is a total steal at #40.  I mean, the Jazz had #30, where he would have been a steal anyway, and then traded down to #40 and picked up a couple of seconds [edit: looks like the accounting finally came out as a single protected second] while committing this highway robbery.  I mean, until like halfway through the season, the general view was that Butler was better than teammate Davion Mitchell, who went #9!  And I’m not totally sure that consensus was all that wrong!  Butler’s not the defender that Mitchell is, but he can light it up.  So Butler trades out a Davion backcourt mate for a Donovan one and the apiphilic Jazz rocket towards the top of my draft grades.

Hindsight Commentary: I really went with the strategy of ignoring “some sort of congenital heart issue” and, well, that didn’t work out for me.  The only saving grace for the Jazz here is that they only blew a #30 pick on him, because they didn’t get any value out of Butler.  And as for me?  Well, every single one of my top-4 graded drafts turned out to be a bust.  But I improved from there, I promise!

Chicago Bulls

Grade: A- (Regrade: A)

Assets Coming In: #38 (DV 0.6/10, 25th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Ayo Dosunmu (#38)

Obligatory Commentary: He stays home!  Born in Chicago, played for UIUC in college, I would never have expected Dosunmu to last to the Bulls’ only pick at #38.  I had him about #10 in my rankings.  Apparently, I’m the idiot, but whatever.  He’s not really a true PG, but as a combo, Dosunmu has the defensive prowess and the scoring acumen to be mentioned with Jamal Crawford.  At #38?  Like, yes, please!

Hindsight Commentary: Dosunmu, taken at #38, was actually the best player remaining on the board at #18 and currently stands as the #6 guy in the draft.  Apparently, I’m not the idiot after all.  (See?  I said my grades got better!)

Atlanta Hawks

Grade: A- (Regrade: B+)

Assets Coming In: #20, #48 (DV 2.0/10, 17th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jalen Johnson (#20), Sharife Cooper (#48)

Obligatory Commentary: I’m a big fat believer in Jalen Johnson.  I can’t really say why, it’s just that the kid evinces all sorts of talent, athleticism, size, endurance, and a pretty good shot on top of fundamentals.  I mean, that’s all.  Of course, there are these question marks that stem from (publicly) his inability to stick with a high school team and leaving Duke mid-season and (privately) from things that make people say he’s a coach killer.  Eh, whatever.  If he’s good, he’s good.  I mean, LeBron is a coach killer too, right?  Cooper isn’t quite my cup of tea – the easy comparison is Trae Young Lite – but as I have said elsewhere, who else would you rather bring in when you gotta bench Trae than Trae Jr.?  It could work!

Hindsight Commentary: Big fat belief in Jalen Johnson has paid off.  To be honest, I advocated for the Kings to take him at #9 when Wagner came off the board in front of him.  Sure, he had some red flags but success is success, and the Hawks and I nailed this one.  And hey, I can’t complain about dismissing Cooper and then watching him be useless.

Portland Trailblazers

Grade: B+ (Regrade: D)

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0.0/10, t-27th), no head coach, a disgruntled Lillard, 2026 2nd (to NOP)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Greg Brown (#43)

Obligatory Commentary: Come into the draft with nothing, trade a distant future 2nd away, and come home with an athletic project who could totally end up a top ten player in the draft if he figures it out?  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Brown was a tantalizing tempest of talent tempered by an aliquot of accidental asshattery.  Or something like that.  To pick him up for a future nothingburger is quite nice.

Hindsight Commentary: Well, I guess picking up Greg Brown for a future nothingburger basically turned out to be an even swap.  That future second appears to be headed to Houston this year at #39 in a somewhat deep draft, so this may look a teeny bit worse in two months, but for now it’s going down as a blah move in a strong draft.

Houston Rockets

Grade: B+ (Regrade: B)

Assets Coming In: #2, #23, #24 (DV 8.5/10, 4th), 2023 1st (WAS, 4yr lotto prot.), 2022 1st (DET, 6yr lotto prot.)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jalen Green (#2), Alperen Sengun (#16), Usman Garuba (#23), Josh Christopher (#24)

Obligatory Commentary: The Rockets came out of the 2021 draft with some nice players, but they weren’t exactly going bargain shopping to land them.  Green, who has as a good chance as anybody to be the next Kobe (and has a better chance than anybody to get the next Head and Shoulders sponsorship!  Just look at those locks!) is probably my favorite prospect in the draft (Sorry, Cade!  Sorry, Evan!), but grabbing him at #2 with Cade the acknowledged #1 is no real feat.  Sengun is a complete mystery – he dominated in the Turkish leagues at a young age, but he’s a bit undersized and will apparently provide almost no post defense at all, so is he a treat, or a trick?  Garuba is an all-D-no-O prospect that looks to me like another Biyombo, and Josh Christopher had all the buzz coming into college, and pretty much disappeared at Arizona State.  In the back half of their draft, I get that the Rockets were throwing backdoor brownies against the wall to see what might remain suspended in air, and given their situation I can’t really blame them, but after getting no credit for Green due to him being the #2 pick, they spent a lot (basically four first rounders) to get Sengun and some guys I’m not all that excited about.  I’ve seen better drafts, I’ve seen worse.

Hindsight Commentary: This draft grade pretty much hinges on Sengun being the second-best player in the draft.  Green has mostly disappointed (and moved on) while Christopher and Garuba just washed out.  Sengun at #16 was a steal.  The rest of the draft was a bust, and they spent two future firsts to do it.  Kinda like I said above.

Los Angeles Clippers

Grade: B (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #25 (DV 1.3/10, 20th), 2024 2nd (DET), 2026 2nd (DET), $$

Assets At The End Of The Day: Keon Johnson (#21), Jason Preston (#33), Brandon Boston (#51)

Obligatory Commentary: Look, I’m not the biggest fan of Keon Johnson, as he’s a complete boom-or-bust prospect, a guy who can literally jump out of the gym (set the combine max vert record) but who can’t shoot at all and doesn’t quite feel like a basketball player.  Still, if things click for him, he can end being a star, and when you come into the draft with a #25 and a couple of future second round picks, you can’t do much better than that.  Jason Preston is…who is he?  Was he like the white neighbor kid on some 1990s black sitcom?  I have no idea.  B.J. Boston, on the other hand, is a pretty nice grab late in the draft – I mean, sure, he sucked this year (is that why he stopped going by “B.J.”?) but there’s a ton of potential and when you can land a kid that was originally thought to be a lottery pick in the late second for a song, you gotta do it.  There’s a real wide range of outcomes for this Clippers draft, ranging from two future stars to all three players busting out of the NBA in short order, but it’s a roll of the dice that just didn’t cost them a whole lot, so I’m in favor.

Hindsight Commentary: Now, this is probably the “best” F of the regrades, but any way you look at it the Clippers took three swings here and had three big misses.  The only saving grace for the Clippers is that they had landed Kawhi in free agency by circumventing the salary cap and they got away with it. Also, how many times has a team drafted three players all of whose last names end in “on”?  I’m not going to look, but with all those English surnames out there, I bet it’s happened before.

Philadelphia 76ers

Grade: B (Regrade: D-)

Assets Coming In: #28, #50 (DV 1.4/10, 19th), $2M cash

Assets At The End Of The Day: Jaden Springer (#28), Filip Petrusev (#50), Charles Bassey (#53)

Obligatory Commentary: It’s not so much that I love Philly’s draft here, and more that they did it with almost nothing to speak of in their pockets.  Springer was a kid that should have started to see some interest in the very late lottery, and I never suspected he’d fall all the way to #28.  Turning the #50 and cash into an offensive and a defensive post prospect in Petrusev and Bassey respectively is tough to complain about.  I pegged Bassey in the late 20s to 30s and Petrusev has been showing out in Europe after being pretty pedestrian at Gonzaga, so there’s a lot to build on here.  It could all fall apart, as none of these guys have a guaranteed floor above where Orpheus fears to tread, but when you put together some potential starting from behind the 8-ball, I gotta give some credit.

Hindsight Commentary: As I said, Philly had next to nothing in their pockets for this draft.  But when the guy you take at #53 is clearly the best player you took, and it’s not all that close – and he’s not all that good – things don’t look great regardless of how empty your cookie jar was to start.  Springer somehow lasted four years in the league but didn’t total 1000 minutes – that’s the second-worst career minutes performance behind James Bouknight.  The only difference here is that I kinda liked Springer.  Didn’t work out.

Sacramento Kings

Grade: B- (Regrade: B)

Assets Coming In: #9, #39 (DV 4.1/10, 10th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Davion Mitchell (#9), Neemias Queta (#39)

Obligatory Commentary: Coming into the draft, only four teams still hold both of their own picks this year – The Kings and the Spurs, who have no extra picks, and the Magic (1) and the Thunder (4), who have also gathered up some extras.  Without the effort of going back to do tedious poring over drafts, this does seem like a likely record for the fewest number of teams that have kept all their picks.  That kind of commentary doesn’t really belong in the Kings’ write-up, but suck it, readers!  Despite evidence of all effort to the contrary, the Kings ended up standing pat on draft night. They apparently had their iron in several fires, including being in on the Valanciunas sweepstakes, but the big opportunity was a mini-megadeal that would have sent Buddy Hield to the Lakers for Harrell/Kuzma and #22.  Not necessarily a great deal, BTW, so I didn’t cry real hard when the Wizards jumped in and blew it the fuck up, but I have to think that the trade falling through just mentally handcuffed Monte Mc”Nair in the Headlights”.  In the end I’m sure I’ll come around to Davion Mitchell – he has Tribute-level tenacious D, and if his three point percentage this year wasn’t a fluke (his FT% says it was) he’ll end up being at least a Bobby Jackson level player despite his lack of size (shortest player drafted this year).  The problem, of course, is that the Kings don’t need a PG.  At all.  It’s not Monte McNair’s fault that the Lakers turned away from a Hield deal earlier in the day to get Westbrook instead, and it’s not his fault that Wagner and Kuminga went in the two picks before yours, but you can’t let that panic you into taking a player that just doesn’t fit on your team.  That said, Mitchell will probably end up being a good-but-not-great player and at least the pick won’t be a disaster, as long as McNair can avoid trotting out any four-guard lineups on the regular next year.  Of course, that leaves us with Neemias Queta, who is the classic under-the-radar seven-footer who is pretty mobile and a defensive beast, but isn’t exactly Joel Embiid on offense.  I mean, if he were Embiid on offense, he’d be a top-5 pick!  But for a team that needs defense, he’s a pretty nice little project.  Just watch me talk myself into this draft.  It’s OK.  It will probably be all right.  It was just a real unexpected move at #9.  Not quite Papagiannis-level unexpected, but when you get taken for a loop like that, you get nauseous.  Just ask roller-coaster operators at amusement parks worldwide.

Hindsight Commentary: The Kings’ problem in this draft was less the players that they picked and more the fact that they did not themselves maximize either of them.  Drafting Davion to play behind both Fox and Haliburton was silly, regardless of how good his defense was, and failing to develop Queta, who has turned into a solid option for the Celtics, have both certainly made the Kings look bad yet again.  But in terms of the draft, they did a more than adequate job of finding good players.  And this is a draft grade, not a how-they-screwed-it-all-up-later grade.  (Warriors fans will complain about this given the commentary above.  Screw ’em!)

New Orleans Pelicans

Grade: B- (Regrade: A+)

Assets Coming In: #10, #35, #40, #43, #53 (DV 5.3/10, 8th), Steven Adams (2/$35), Eric Bledsoe (2/$22g)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Trey Murphy III (#17), Herb Jones (#35), Jonas Valanciunas (1/$14), $2M cash, 2026 2nd (POR), more $

Obligatory Commentary: The Pelicans’ big move here was to send $43M away and move 7 spots down in the draft.  And frankly, with Bledsoe looking like he’s on an age-related decline and Adams not being the player that Valanciunas is (though he’s more muscle), it kind of looks like the Pelicans came out ahead on financials AND talent.  What’s not to like?  Well, to be honest, I don’t love what the Pellies did with their first rounder.  Murphy can shoot a bit, but he just didn’t really pop in his transfer year at Virginia and I’m not at all sure what drove the late momentum that vaulted him into the first round.  Herb Jones, man, I get him.  He can’t shoot, but he’s a great defender and a good team player.  I think he carves out a bit of a career, which is all you can really ask for from a second rounder.  All the rest is a bunch of accounting with piddly amounts of cash (millions of dollars, so piddly!) and second rounders.  The draft itself was a bit underwhelming, but getting Valanciunas and a big load of available cash should really help the Pelicans to build around Zion.

Hindsight Commentary: Building around Zion is perhaps a foolish proposition at this point, seeing as he can’t remotely stay healthy.  That said, Murphy and Jones (especially Murphy) have both exceeded my expectations.  That Valanciunas/Adams swap is more of a push, especially since Adams had one more year of control, but man, whatever I didn’t see in Murphy turned out to be there, didn’t it?

Charlotte Hornets

Grade: C+ (Regrade: C-)

Assets Coming In: #11, #56, #57 (DV 3.4/10, 11th), 2023 1st (3yr lotto prot.)

Assets At The End Of The Day: James Bouknight (#11), Kai Jones (#19), JT Thor (#37), Scottie Lewis (#56), Mason Plumlee (2/$14.1g)

Obligatory Commentary: If the Kings drafted “Off-Night”, the Hornets went straight reading club in drafting Bouknight at #11.  A “three-level scorer” who can’t hit from three is…a…two-level scorer?  I had Bouknight in the 20s when a ton of mocks had him in the 6-8 slots for reasons that I simply can’t fathom.  It was the Hornets that couldn’t dodge him.  If one can say anything about Charlotte’s draft night, it’s that they managed to turn cap space and crappy picks into a couple of athletic Hail Marys in Kai Jones and JT Thor.  I don’t love either, but when your draft capital to land them is comprised of the #57 and taking on the totally reasonable contract of Mason Plumlee, I gotta respect that.  Bouknight – massive mistake; remainder of the draft – serious lottery ticket potential, that’s a middlin’ draft!

Hindsight Commentary: Ho-ho, “a middlin’ draft”, ho-ho!  I was right about Bouknight sucking (and I was on the record all the way through the draft process that teams should stay the hell away from him) but I tell you literally none of those lottery tickets that the Hornets scraped off had anything resembling jackpots under the silver sticky stuff.  It was just the “totally reasonable contract” of Mason Plumlee that salvaged this draft.  Plumlee remained damn solid for his cheap contract, and I don’t really think that the Hornets expected him to be the clear centerpiece of their 2021 draft, but here we are.

Indiana Pacers

Grade: C+ (Regrade: D+)

Assets Coming In: #13, #54, #60 (DV 3.0/10, 13th), Aaron Holiday (1/$4), 2023 2nd (to SAS, conveyable if 56-60)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Chris Duarte (#13), Isaiah Jackson (#22)

Obligatory Commentary: There was a decent amount of pick-flipping going on to help the Pacers land Isaiah Jackson.  Just look at the list, and take everything that wasn’t the #13, and that got spent to get Jackson.  I don’t think that’s a problem, as turning three crappy second round picks and a decent backup PG into a possible top-level garbageman is not so bad.  I love Jackson’s motor and his defense, and if he doesn’t demand to be an offensive focus, he’ll be just fine.  Chris Duarte?  I’m not so sure.  I mean, he had a great year in Oregon, but it was like his super-super senior year, so at some point you do have to wonder how much of it was due to his developmental age.  I mean, he’s not a great passer, he’s an OK rebounder, he just shot the lights out – and waaaaay better than his previous season.  Is that the best bet you can make at #13?  (No.  No, it is not.)

Hindsight Commentary: I loved Jackson, didn’t love Duarte, both sentiments proved accurate enough.  Duarte was not only not the best pick you could have made at #13, but he was about the 28th-best pick you could have made, which is definitely stinker level.  Smells like garbage.  Just like Jackson likes.

Phoenix Suns

Grade: C (Regrade: D)

Assets Coming In: #29 (DV 1.0/10, 22nd), Jevon Carter (2/$7.6)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Landry Shamet (1/$3.8)

Obligatory Commentary: I’m not sure I see what the Suns were doing here.  They traded away two years of a ho-hum backup PG to get one year of a ho-hum backup shooting guard (who is now joining his FOURTH team in four years, so I hope he’s got a good real estate agent) just to strand him behind Booker, and they blew the #29 pick for the privilege of doing it.  That’s the kind of asset management that could quickly re-establish the House of Suns-Kings as soon as imaginable after Phoenix unexpectedly made the conference finals with the addition of CP3.  I mean, look, I’m not saying this trade drops Phoenix 30 wins next season, I’m saying it’s a disturbing direction.

Hindsight Commentary: Yep.  Welp.  The Carter-Shamet swap was basically a push and there was value to be had at the #29 pick, which was wasted on rearranging those deck chairs.  The Suns have made their share of curious moves in the past five years, what with Mat Ishbia not knowing his ish, though we can’t blame him for this mess without retconning his purchase of the team to a few years earlier.

Milwaukee Bucks

Grade: C (Regrade: B-)

Assets Coming In: #31 (DV 0.9/10, 24th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Sandro Mamukelashvili (#54), Georgios Kalaitzakis (#60)

Obligatory Commentary: The Bucks could have had Isaiah Todd.  Instead they got cute and ended up with Mamukelashvili (whom, to be fair, I kind of like) and a random Greek player who is more likely to be a tzatziki than an Antetokounmpo.  And I don’t really like tzatziki.  Souvlaki?  Dolmas?  Anyone?  (On the other hand, they just won the NBA championship.  Do they care who they draft?)

Hindsight Commentary: Just repeat what I said above.  Mamukelashvili was pretty decent, the tzatziki guy barely got a cup of coffee.  But seeing as Sandro was the fifth-best guy in the second round, trading down to grab him worked out OK.  Also, I’ll address it here in case I try to avoid it elsewhere…Isaiah Todd was probably my biggest miss of this entire draft.  Loved him.  He was garbage.  Hell, I loved Harry Giles too.  And I really worry about what that means for Caleb Wilson.

Detroit Pistons

Grade: C- (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #1, #37, #42, #52 (DV 10.0/10, 1st), Mason Plumlee (2/$14.1g)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Cade Cunningham (#1), Isaiah Livers (#42), Luka Garza (#53), Balsa Koprovica (#57)

Obligatory Commentary: I can’t say it enough times – you don’t get any credit for drafting the best player with the first overall pick.  My fucking rules.  So we can ignore Cade, who has the whole Luka Doncic I’m-Not-That-Athletic-And-I’ll-Kill-You-Anyway vibe.  The Pistons had three more picks in this draft, AND they had Mason Plumlee, and they turned that into an injured guy that was never all that good, The Other Luka Who Is Even Less Athletic, and a guy only suited for model airplane kits.  I mean, sure, I kinda liked Garza, but he’s not going to work in the League.  I may be dumb, but when the NCAA Player of the Year drops to #52, and that was kind of an optimistic result, let’s just say that the guys who make their money doing shit that I just blog about intermittently probably knew what they were doing.  The Pistons landed Cade like everybody knew they would, then punted the rest of the draft.  Can’t grade it well.

Hindsight Commentary: The Pistons, numbers-wise, came out worse than anybody else in this draft.  Now, there’s a glint of hope that Cade has actually come around, but it was a long road and his first three years were hideous.  I’m not sold, but regardless of anything else his slow start has doomed the 5-year value on this draft.  #1 overall in a good draft and he has struggled, that’ll do it.  Dumping the value contract of Plumlee hurt as well.  In the end, the Pistons might end up OK with this draft if Cade keeps this year up but for now it’s hard to evaluate it as anything but a whiff.

Toronto Raptors

Grade: C- (Regrade: C+)

Assets Coming In: #4, #46, #47 (DV 5.9/10, 6th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Scottie Barnes (#4), Dalano Banton (#46), David Johnson (#47)

Obligatory Commentary: I was never fully on board with Scottie Barnes.  He seems to be a nice guy.  He plays hard.  He can defend.  And he’s allegedly a huge PG (he’s not, though he does have decent ball skills and passing ability).  But he can’t shoot, he’s not a scorer in any reasonable definition of the word, and do you really believe that Mr. Intangibles is going to be the game-changer?  I mean, his floor is pretty high, don’t get me wrong.  He’ll get that second contract at least.  But if in the end he’s Aaron Gordon with better handles and passing, is he really going to make much of a difference?  Is there an imprint here?  Suggs was on the board and with the end of the Lowry era in sight, he was the dead dumb obvious choice.  The Raptors got cute and went with the Swiss Army Spoon.  If the Barnes pick wasn’t bad enough, Dalano Banton is just some random dude from Toronto who went to Nebraska.  I’d never even heard of him.  That’s a hometown punt, and nothing else.  David Johnson was a generic guard I just couldn’t get behind.  I mean, the #46 and #47 didn’t have a ton of value, but when you use them on an undrafted player and a dude, that’s no way to supplement taking a Swiss Army Spoon and skipping on the best PG available when you’re in need of a PG.

Hindsight Commentary: Well, at least I was right about Banton and Johnson.  Scottie Barnes has simply nailed his ceiling, and in a draft like this that’s enough to salvage the grade.  Oh, and he was a hands-down better pick than Suggs.  As I said at the top, I pretty much whiffed on the top four players in this draft, and Barnes is one of those four. C’est la vie.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Grade: D+ (Regrade: B+)

Assets Coming In: #3 (DV 5.4/10, 7th), Taurean Prince (1/$13), 2022 2nd (WAS)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Evan Mobley (#3), Ricky Rubio (1/$17.8), $$

Obligatory Commentary: It’s not that I hate Evan Mobley, but I have to say I don’t love him.  I mean, I’d love the player he’s typically described as (a great defender, great rebounder, incredible post scorer) but he’s just way, way, way too passive.  I mean, he literally had a game where he played 31 minutes and didn’t attempt a single shot.  That’s Ben Simmons in the 4th Quarter of a Playoff Game Level shit there.  I just don’t see any way you can build a franchise around this kid.  Sorry.  I mean, he’s a dude, but I’m about 50/50 that he finishes his rookie deal in Cleveland.

Hindsight Commentary: Perhaps that one passive Mobley game made me a bit overwrought.  In the end, he has turned out as the best player in the draft and while he is yet to lead the Cavs to the promised land, he was more than a solid pick at #3.  The Rubio/Prince swap was a hell of a wash (and a boring one at that) but Mobley definitely outperformed my expectations for him.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Grade: D+ (Regrade: C-)

Assets Coming In: No picks. Just tears. Salty, salty tears. (DV 0.0/10, t-27th), Ricky Rubio (1/$17.8), $$

Assets At The End Of The Day: Taurean Prince (1/$13), 2022 2nd (WAS via CLE)

Obligatory Commentary: I mean, I have no idea.  The T’Pups, armed with no picks despite a terrible record, traded a should-be bench piece for a definite bench piece and a future second rounder.  Like, what, a C for effort and an F for creativity?  What does that average out to?  Literally the only thing that makes me care about this trade at all is the “Reunited” theme playing over pictures of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, only one of whom is still good enough to be playing in the Olympics right now (hint: it’s not the one related to a Beach Boy).

Hindsight Commentary: Some teams do absolutely nothing on draft day.  Other teams actually do things, but they add up to nothing in the end.  The T’Wolves did the latter on draft day 2021.  Meh.

Brooklyn Nets

Grade: D (Regrade: B-)

Assets Coming In: #27, #44, #49, #59 (DV 2.1/10, 16th), Landry Shamet (1/$3.8)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Cameron Thomas (#27), Day’Ron Sharpe (#29), Kessler Edwards (#44), Marcus Zegarowski (#49), RaiQuan Gray (#59), Jevon Carter (2/$7.6)

Obligatory Commentary: I have to say, I pretty much hate Cam Thomas.  “Bad Shot Taker, Bad Shot Maker.”  Plays no defense, and is the ultimate chucker.  A complete waste of the #27 pick, if you ask me.  There’s not a lot later in the draft that I like – Sharpe may pan out to be a garbage man, and I guess maybe he’s worth blowing Landry Shamet (because, like, he’s Landry Shamet), and Zegarowski was on my Don’t Touch list.  Edwards might have an outside shot, due to his measurements, but as a player he didn’t jump out and say “I’m the draft pick on this team!” – and the team was Pepperdine.  To me that’s the kiss of death.

Hindsight Commentary: Hilariously, I was right about basically every damn thing in this write-up but it ended up being a big miss on the grade because the completely pedestrian but factually decent career of <checks notes> Day’Ron Sharpe meant that four late picks weren’t entirely wasted.  “Don’t Touch” Zegarowski never saw an NBA court, so I can’t complain about that assessment.

Denver Nuggets

Grade: D (Regrade: C+)

Assets Coming In: #26 (DV 1.2/10, 21st)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland (#26)

Obligatory Commentary: The Nuggets had one pick in this draft, selected a skinny dude with a nickname that sounds cool until you realize he probably got it because of how skinny he is, and then peaced the fuck out.  That’s not a winning draft, even when all you have the the #26.

Hindsight Commentary: Bones is OK.  He’s no disaster, he’s no savior, let him play a few rotation minutes and you’re OK.  Winning draft?  No.  But it was par for the course.

Miami Heat

Grade: D- (Regrade: C)

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0.0/10, t-27th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Nothing.  Not a sausage.  Bugger all.

Obligatory Commentary: You have no picks, you get swept out of the first round of the playoffs, and you just stand pat on draft night?  Sorry man, there was shit to be done, and you didn’t do it.

Hindsight Commentary:  Hmm.  Kind of hard to come up with anything here.  Kind of like the Heat in on draft day.

Dallas Mavericks

Grade: D- (Regrade: C)

Assets Coming In: No Picks (DV 0.0/10, t-27th), a departed head coach, a front office in turmoil, a disgruntled Doncic

Assets At The End Of The Day: A big long nap during the most exciting day of the NBA season

Obligatory Commentary: It’s a deep draft!  Luka wants help!  Cash buys picks in the second round!  But Mark Cuban is too busy filming fucking Shark Tank or something.  Can’t be bothered.  Mark Cuban doesn’t care about the grade I give the Mavs here, fine.  Mark Cuban also traded away basically the entire future of his franchise for an injured unicorn who can’t get on the same page as his only star player.  Fine, but sitting out draft night ain’t helping anything.

Hindsight Commentary: Mark Cuban has a slogan:  “At least I’m not Nico Harrison!”  True that.

New York Knicks

Grade: F (Regrade: A-)

Assets Coming In: #19, #21, #32, #58 (DV 4.3/10, 9th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Quentin Grimes (#25), Rokas Jokubaitas (#34), Miles McBride (#36), Jericho Sims (#58), 2023 1st (CHA, 3yr lotto prot), 2024 2nd (DET via LAC)

Obligatory Commentary: As a complete polar opposite to the Mavericks, the Knicks did WAY too much overthinking (sic) on draft night.  Poor Spike Lee had the chair pulled out from under him not once but twice as the Knicks traded both #19 and #21 while Lee cheered on the selections on live TV.  As I said elsewhere, Spike was likely to do the wrong thing before the night was through.  And what did the Knicks get for their two decent first rounders?  Quentin Grimes (I like him fine!) and not much.  Because I’m a drunk asshole, I’m going on record as saying that Joker-Bite-Us is going to do nothing in the NBA.  I don’t even know his game!  Deuce McBride and Sims are rolls of the dice – Sims can jump (hit his nose on the rim in a workout) but isn’t really a basketball player.  The Knicks got super-cute and traded and traded and eventually had to make a few selections.  I just don’t think this draft is going to work out for them.

Hindsight Commentary: For all the shit the Knicks put Spike Lee through on draft night, they actually managed to justify it in the end.  Grimes has been quite good, and of all the athletic big man prospects in this draft, Sims came out on top by a pretty wide margin.  Yes, Joker-Bite-Us was one of four draftees to not play a single minute in the NBA (nailed it!) but McBride has also showed out a bit – together that makes a draft with little value going in a complete success.

Memphis Grizzlies

Grade: F (Regrade: A)

Assets Coming In: #17, #51 (DV 2.2/10, 14th), Jonas Valanciunas (1/$14), Justise Winslow (1/$13 team option, must be declined to fit salaries), 2026 2nd (MEM)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Ziaire Williams (#10), Santi Aldama (#30), Steven Adams (2/$35), Eric Bledsoe (2/$22g)

Obligatory Commentary: Do I like Ziaire Williams?  Yes.  Could he have been had at #17, rather than moving up to #10?  Yeah, probably.  So here’s the problem with the Grizzlies’ draft in 2021: they traded the best player in a trade (Jonas) to move up in a draft, while taking on a bunch of extra money, and used the pick to take a guy that would have been there with the original pick.  Then they spent some assets to trade into the #30 pick in order to select a player that was going to go undrafted.  Like seriously, WTF were they thinking?  I could not legally drive at the time that I am writing this due to the level of ethanol in my bloodstream, and even then, I know that this was a dumb, dumb draft.  What a waste.

Hindsight Commentary: Look.  Williams is a bust.  The Adams/Valanciunas trade was a qualified success, if only because trading two years of dudes for one year of dudes is a win.  But the way I missed this one was to completely dismiss Santi Aldama, who is actually a damn decent player!  He’s no all-star, but with Aldama on board this draft was far better than a waste.

Boston Celtics

Grade: F (Regrade: A+)

Assets Coming In: #45 (DV 0.5/10, 26th*), Kemba Walker (2/$73.7), 2021 #16, 2025 2nd

Assets At The End Of The Day: Juhann Begarin (#45), Al Horford (2/$41.5g), Moses Brown (3/$0.0g)

Obligatory Commentary: The Celtics gave up the #16 pick to make Kemba Walker disappear (and pick up Al Horford, which really means they made about 40% of Kemba Walker disappear), and when you see that contract, you understand why.  Still, Horford, is done, and Kemba is not, and no amount of Moses Brown is going to balance that equation. So let’s see – you toss away a draft pick to get rid of an expensive OK player to return a less-expensive dude who is done, and then you spend your last remaining pick on a draft-and-stash Euro.  Why, exactly, did you think I was going to like this draft?  Shoot, I’m worried about the revolt of the Bahstan fans, because they’re brutal.  Time to hire private security.

Hindsight Commentary: Forget the never-set-foot-on-an-NBA-court Begarin.  This is 100% about Al Horford.  I said he was done.  He was not.  He was so NOT done that he played a significant role in leading the Celtics to a championship, another finals appearance, and another conference finals appearance.  We should all be so lucky.  Kemba Walker, on the other hand…that dude was done.  The Black Magic the Celtics pulled off here may never be replicated.

San Antonio Spurs

Grade: F (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #12, #41 (DV 3.3/10, 12th)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Josh Primo (#12), Joe Wieskamp (#41)

Obligatory Commentary: In a win for consistency, the Spurs have the #12 and #41 picks this year after having the #11 and #41 picks last year. This will cost them a small amount in Draft Value, but given the depth of this year’s draft, was perfectly primed to give them better results.  Then they went and picked a totally mediocre rotation player at #12.  Primo was like a 30-40 guy at best.  I mean, the raw stats didn’t like him, the advanced stats didn’t like him, the eye test didn’t give him anything, he didn’t even play big minutes for the Elephants, but hell, he was the youngest player in the draft, and that makes him a sure-fire success!  I struggle, once again, to refrain from pointing out that the oh-so-vaunted Spurs drafting is a complete fantasy at this point.  Yes, they got Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili late.  That was a generation ago.  People who were the youngest person in their family at the time of those drafts are now grandparents (I mean, at least a few of them).  If all you’ve got left to show me is one Kawhi, man, I don’t believe in you.  Primo is gonna bust hard.  Wieskamp can shoot a bit, but I never thought he was a lock to be drafted at all.  Going #41 with at least 7 nice players on the board?  Nah, bro.  The Spurs’ front office is overrated.  I keep saying it.  I keep being right.   Why doesn’t everybody catch up here?

Hindsight Commentary: You know, sometimes your draft grades – which were clearly correct in the first place – only get buttressed by players doing shit you could not have predicted.  Josh Primo, for instance, took an iffy NBA career and burned it down to the ground by wagging his dick at the Spurs’ sports psychologist.  When I said Primo was going to “bust hard” THAT’S NOT WHAT I MEANT.  But, hey, I’ll take the win.

Washington Wizards

Grade: F (Regrade: A-)

Assets Coming In: #15 (DV 2.2/10, 15th), Russell Westbrook (2/$91), 2024 2nd (WAS), 2028 2nd (WAS)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Corey Kispert (#15), Isaiah Todd (#31), Aaron Holiday (1/$4), Kyle Kuzma (3/$39), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2/$17.9g), Montrezl Harrell (1/$9.7)

Obligatory Commentary: The only way to spin the megatrade the Wizards pulled off in a positive fashion is to call it “addition by subtraction”.  Maybe, I mean just maybe, Beal really hated playing with Russ and the Wiz had to make one of those Gilbert Arenas/Javaris Crittenton decisions.  I get it.  Russ may be packing, who knows?  But who can get excited about the return here?  I like Harrell’s energy off the bench as a mini-center, but I kind of like Westbrook’s energy putting up triple-doubles a bit more.  And Kuzma?  KCPoop?  Man, the #22 pick just ain’t worth that kind of a stepdown.  Now, I have to say that I DO like the prestidigitation that the Wizards pulled off with #22, flipping it to not only get Capt. Factorial favorite Isaiah Todd but also a passable backup PG in Holiday.  Frankly, I would have panicked and straight up taken Todd at #22, but the Wiz coolly flipped their pick to get him on a cheaper contract and a bit more.  Still, Russell Westbrook.  For not much.  I think there’s a rule that says the team that trades away Russell Westbrook loses the trade.  Seems fair.

Hindsight Commentary: Not the first, not the second, not the third, but the FOURTH original F grade to get rebranded to an A.  What the fuck?  I mean, thank God for Josh Primo.  And shit, if you want “crazy”, consider that despite being the biggest possible advocate for Isaiah Todd, I gave the Wiz an F while drafting him…and that despite Todd busting completely the Wiz earned an A anyway…I can hardly fathom it myself.  In some crazy random happenstance, it turns out that the Wiz traded for six years of three decent rotation players, and, man that’s all you need to turn a draft featuring a #15 pick and a washed-up superstar into a success, even if your #15 pick just turns out to be kinda OK.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Grade: Possibly the worst F in the history of draft grades (Regrade: F)

Assets Coming In: #6, #16, #18, #34, #36, #55 (DV 9.9/10, 2nd*), Al Horford (2/$41.5g), Moses Brown (3/$0.0g), 2023 2nd (worst of several)

Assets At The End Of The Day: Josh Giddey (#6), Tre Mann (#18), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (#32), Aaron Wiggins (#55), Kemba Walker (2/$73.7), 2025 2nd (BOS), 2023 1st (WAS via HOU, 4yr lotto prot.), 2022 1st (DET via HOU, 6yr lotto prot.)

Obligatory Commentary: Everybody knew coming into the day that the Thunder couldn’t possibly use six draft picks in one draft, so the only question really was what kind of trades they were going to make. Well, the bottom line is that they got four players out of their original six picks and added three more picks, for a net +1 in the Presti Department.  But let’s look a bit more deeply at this.  They traded away a declining Horford for a declining Kemba (who makes more $$) to pick up more picks, and that’s not great. (Watch them flip Kemba for picks in the near future – Edit: No! They BOUGHT HIM OUT!  THEY COULDN’T TRADE HIM AND THEY ATE $73M TO GET THE #16 PICK AND A 2025 2ND ROUNDER!  I MEAN SOMETIMES I TRY TO BE DIGNIFIED AROUND HERE BUT LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!  This may officially be the worst draft ever.  Adjusting my grade to note this.  OK, I guess there’s still more to say about who they DID pick, too…)  They blew their best pick on a 6′-8″ Aussie PG who can’t shoot and can’t play defense, a dude who rocketed up boards at the last minute for reasons that seem suspect at best.   Then they took three of my least-favorite guys in the draft: Mann, JRE, and Wiggins The Lesser.  There is literally no excuse for any of these moves.  It would appear that at some point somebody told Sam Presti that “He Who Dies With The Most Picks Wins”, and he took it to heart.  The Thunder have ALL THE PICKS.  Seriously.  Over the next six years, the average NBA team has 12 picks (actually, it’s 11.967 because the Bucks got penalized a second for tampering with Bogdanovic, but still).  The Thunder have somewhere between 29 and 33 picks in that span.  They’ll have at least 11 but as many as 18 first-round picks in that span (based on protections, they’re pretty likely to get 17-18).  So, yes, the Thunder have ALL THE PICKS, but if they can’t package them to get good veterans, and they can’t spend them on decent prospects, and all they can do with them is turn them into more future picks that have the same fate, what’s the fucking point?

Hindsight Commentary: At least I have this.  At least possibly the worst F in the history of draft grades held up as an F 5 years down the road.  That said, the Thunder did some OK things here.  Look, I had like four hard misses in the second round, and The Lesser Wiggins was one of them.  Aaron Wiggins can play.  I had no idea.  On top of that – and despite statutory rapes and rumors of statutory rapes, Josh Giddey has also proven himself to be worthy of the #6 pick (plus that hair, my God, fellow Aussie Michael Hutchence would have skipped auto-erotic asphyxiation for the upgrade).  But still, it’s an F.  And it’s an F because the single biggest asset in the entire draft process was the aging shell of Al Horford, and the Thunder traded him away only to be forced to cut Kemba Walker and eat so many millions of dollars that lotto winners who all of a sudden can “totally afford all this cheese” would blush red.  I do think they had a plan.  Because at that point nobody would have traded for the dead contract of Kemba Walker without a plan.  But whatever that plan was, it fell through and they were left holding the bag and a big fat F. 

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