NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Pacific Division

Finally we get to the Pacific Division and my own Sacramento Kings.  I can’t tell you how happy I am to not be writing up a summer preview for the Seattle Supersonics (no offense to the city of Seattle and its great fans, though any of the vultures populating SonicsRising are welcome to take as much offense as they wish).  For the time being I’ve also got a very happy cat not exactly in my lap but wedged in between my side and the recliner arm and while it doesn’t really look terribly comfortable, he seems not to mind my right arm resting on his chest to reach the laptop.  I’ll be hard pressed to be mean to any of the teams I’m writing up as long as he keeps napping so sweetly.  Lucky you, Warriors!

Golden State Warriors

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(4+2p+1t): Andrew Bogut (1), David Lee (3), Festus Ezeli (1+2t), Draymond Green (1+1t), Andris Biedrins (1p), Carl Landry (1p), Dwayne Jones (1t)
Wings(2+2p+1t): Harrison Barnes (1+2t), Klay Thompson (1+1t), Brandon Rush (1p), Richard Jefferson (1p), Kent Bazemore (1t)
Guards(1+1t): Stephen Curry (4), Scott Machado (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 3 Team Option + 4 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry (p), Brandon Rush (p)

2013 Cap Situation: $69M assuming Landry opts out Cap Holds: Jack 8, Landry 8, Rush 5; Total cap holds of $21M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Charlie Bell)

2013 Draft Picks: None

our player options on the Golden State rosted is going to end up being two too many this offseason.  Those two are Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins, who collectively are going to opt in to $20M worth of salary next season.  That’s enough to put the Warriors over the salary cap, and all for a couple of benchwarmers.  (Do you know why the bench is so warm?  Because Jefferson and Biedrins are sitting at the end of it burning huge piles of cash.) Worst of all, the Warriors already used wasted their amnesty on Charlie Bell two years ago clearing space in their unsuccessful attempt to pry DeAndre Jordan away from the Clippers. That amnesty really could have come in handy to get them some maneuvering room under the apron this offseason.  The Warriors also have to wait on Carl Landry and Brandon Rush to consider their $4M options.  Rush is coming off of an ACL tear, so I can’t imagine that he’ll want to test the waters before he can prove he’s healthy. but Landry is bound to find more than $4M on the open market, so he’ll opt out.  That will leave the Warriors, who emerged this season to win a first-round playoff series, with a few holes to fill: a post scorer off of the bench, a rotation wing, and (with Jarrett Jack a free agent) a backup point guard.  And they’ll have to do it completely through free agency and trades, because they don’t have any draft picks this year.

Point guard is the biggest hole, considering that the Warriors have absolutely nobody to back up the injury-prone Stephen Curry outside of a team option on a Scott Machado emergency contract (Machado signed for the late part of the season and didn’t play a minute).  This year, things worked out pretty well with Jack playing minutes at both the 1 and the 2, and I suspect the Warriors would like to keep that chemistry going.  Jack is liable to command most or all of his $8M cap hold, but I think the Warriors have to bring him back if they can, even though that will probably preclude them from spending money on the wing.  Instead, they’ll rely on playing Jack and Curry together in the backcourt and hoping that Rush can effectively come back.  Simply bringing Jack back is going to put the Warriors over the luxury tax, so I imagine that Carl Landry is going to be allowed to walk even though they don’t have an adequate offensive replacement in the post (Draymond Green was just a dreadful shooter this year).  Fortunately, the Warriors have enough bench scoring elsewhere, so while Landry will be missed, the Warriors won’t fall out of the playoffs next year for not signing him.

Los Angeles Clippers

Posts(2): Blake Griffin (4+1p), DeAndre Jordan (2)
Wings(2+1t): Caron Butler (1), Jamal Crawford (1+2t), Grant Hill (1t)
Guards(1+1t): Eric Bledsoe (1), Willie Green (2t)

Total players under contract next year: 5 + 2 Team Option

Major Free Agents: Chris Paul, Lamar Odom, Chauncey Billups, Matt Barnes, Ryan Hollins, Ronny Turiaf

2013 Cap Situation: $41M Cap Holds: Paul 18.5, Odom 12, Billups 7.5; Total cap holds of $42M.  Only MLE exception available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Ryan Gomes)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #25; Second round: #56

rue story: The Clippers are now officially better than the Lakers.  True story 2: If they don’t manage to resign Chris Paul this offseason, this reversal of fortune may be short-lived.  Paul being a free agent is a bit problematic because the Clippers have a ton of players leaving in this offseason – not counting CP# there are almost 5500 minutes worth of players hitting free agency.  Yet snapping up Paul (dreadfully obviously their #1 priority) will eat up basically all their cap space.  Even signing Paul back, at the minimum they’re going to need two big men (to replace the Odom/Turiaf/Hollins tandem) and one wing (to replace Barnes) and they’ve got an MLE to do it.  Fortunately, they’ve got Bird Rights on Odom, and while he won’t command the entirety (or probably even half) of his over $12M cap hold, the Clippers can pay whatever they need to pay (maybe $4M?) to bring him back and help fill out the bench without digging into their MLE, which they’ll need to use to replace (or resign) Barnes who (once again) would seem to have priced himself out of a minimum contract.  It’s weird, because Barnes has reached the $2M mark in salary only once in his career (he got $3M from the Warriors in ’07-’08).  Dude needs a new agent, because he easily deserves $4-5M and year after year he doesn’t get it.  But this really isn’t the SacTown’s Finest Summer Preview, so back to the Clippers.

The point is that so long as they get Paul back, the main pieces (Griffin, Jordan, Bledsoe, Butler, Crawford) are in place, they just need to spend money on the bench, and who exactly gets that (small amount of) money maybe doesn’t matter too much.  The Clippers also have a first-round pick at #25 and a wing (project is fine) would probably be the best use of the selection as for the near future Griffin and Jordan are going to be the main guys in the post and presumably Paul at the point.  Two kids who are making noise at the bottom of the first round are Allen Crabbe and Tim Hardaway Jr.  I think either one would be a nice pick, so I’ll assume that the Clippers go with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope instead.  Because NBA teams rarely agree with me on the value of players in the draft.

Los Angeles Lakers

Posts(2): Pau Gasol (1), Jordan Hill (1)
Wings(1+1p+1t): Kobe Bryant (1), Metta World Peace (1p), Jodie Meeks (1t)
Guards(2+1t): Steve Nash (2), Steve Blake (1), Chris Duhon (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 5 + 2 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 3 RFA

Major Free Agents: Dwight Howard, Earl Clark, Antawn Jamison, Metta World Peace (p), Devin Ebanks (RFA), Darius Morris (RFA), Robert Sacre (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $76M Cap Holds: Howard 20.5, lots of bookkeeping; Total cap holds of $42M.  Only tMLE exception available

Amnesty Candidates: Kobe Bryant (1/$30.5M), Metta World Peace (1/$7.5M), Gasol is the only other eligible player.

2013 Draft Picks: Second round: # 48

oney is no object.  No, seriously, it isn’t an object, it’s an abstract noun which is used to represent the value of goods and services.  In the 2012-’13 season, the Lakers were 100K abstract nouns short of 100M abstract nouns in salary, and that number could go up next year if they keep Howard. Unfortunately, 30.5M of those abstract nouns are already promised to a 35-year-old who just tore his Achilles’ tendon.  [Deep Breath]  On top of that they’ve got 31M abstract nouns committed to three players who are 33/34 (Gasol/World Peace/Blake) and another 9.3M abstract nouns due to 39-year-old Steve Nash.  We’re talking basically 71M abstract nouns that may not do a very good job of representing the value of services in the near future.  This basically goes under the assumption that Metta World Peace (yet another abstract noun, though much less profitable) will not turn down a 7.7M abstract noun option.  This puts the Lakers over the tax for six players, one of whom is badly injured.

Oh, and they have to worry about whether or not to sign their “next” franchise player (a 28-year old center) for, in the abstract, about $30M.  Let me just say now that I’m confident the Lakers will bring back Howard because they simply cannot afford to be down when the Clippers are up, so “tanking” is not an option.  (Despite the fact that with an expected-to-be killer draft class next year, tanking is exactly the right option for the Lakers.  Right?)

The important decisions this offseason, then, revolve around Kobe Bryant.  His injury basically guarantees that his temporary replacement Jodie Meeks (who played well, by the way) will have his team option picked up.  That’s not the important question.  The important question is whether the Lakers amnesty Kobe Bryant.  It’s an amazingly hard question to even ask, and for the Lakers it’s even harder to admit that the correct answer might be “yes”.  The Achilles injury seems likely to keep Kobe out for the entire season.  Not if you ask Kobe, of course, who says he’ll be ready for the season opener.  But if you ask reality, reality has a hard time believing he’ll be able to play at all next season and a very hard time believing that he’ll be close to the player he once was.  Maybe never again given his age, but next season…?  And of course, the amnesty period is in July, before the Lakers can really know about how Kobe’s recovery is coming.  They’ll be deciding blind, and they’ll be basing that decision on whether or not they can cut $30M off of their cap number, which translates to – sit down.  No, seriously, sit your butt down because your legs will come out from under you when you read this next bit.  Because of the escalating tax rates in the current CBA (and assuming they have signed Dwight Howard to a $20M+ contract which would mean that all of Kobe’s salary would be above the tax level) the Lakers would save about $85M on their luxury tax bill if they amnesty an injured Kobe.  I am not kidding.  I am not exaggerating.  That basically comes out to paying every other team in the league $3M – each – for the privilege of having Kobe sit behind your bench in a really expensive suit. 

In other words, “amnesty” is no longer an abstract noun.  It is very, very concrete.  Kobe is gone.  They absolutely have to amnesty him.  $85M is more than most other teams will pay for their entire roster.  You simply can’t commit yourself to that kind of expense to keep around an aging player who is probably not going to play.  The fans may not like it.  The media may not like it.  But the only other options are to refuse to sign Dwight Howard or to find a way to trade Pau Gasol for nothing.  And I don’t think either of those are options.  It truly does look like the end of an era.

Phoenix Suns

Posts(5+1t): Marcin Gortat (1), Luis Scola (2), Markieff Morris (1+1t), Marcus Morris (1+1t), Channing Frye (1+1p), Hamed Haddadi (1t)
Wings(2+1t): Michael Beasley (1+1t), Jared Dudley (1+1p), P.J. Tucker (1t)
Guards(2+1t): Goran Dragic (2+1p), Kendall Marshall (1+2t), Shannon Brown (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 9 + 3 Team Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Wesley Johnson, Diante Garrett (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $50M Cap Holds: Johnson 5; Total cap holds of $7M.  Only room exception available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Josh Childress)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #4 Lotto slot, #30; Second round: #57

or a team as bad as the Suns were last year, the fact that at least nine players are coming back next year is not exactly comforting.  And it’s not that the players that they have are terrible – Gortat/Scola/Dudley/Dragic are all solid, but there’s simply no star there.  I don’t really know where the star is, but certainly Kendall Marshall was not so great his rookie year, the Morris twins would only be great if you could put both of them on the floor at the same time and have them only count as one player, free agent Wesley Johnson looks like he’s on his way to Europe, and Michael Beasley looks like he’s on his way to Burning Man.  And for all that they’re going to pay $50M, leaving only about $10M for free agency.   They’ll definitely bring P.J. Tucker and Shannon Brown back next year (Tucker being cheap, Brown being half-guaranteed so they may as well), while I can’t imagine Haddadi gets asked back.  So that’s 11 players and not much value.

The Suns will start with the draft.  They’ve got the #4 slot, so they’re unlikely to pick lower than 6 (Update: 5 it is!).  I don’t think their roster really dictates a positional need – rather they’ve got to take the BPA, even if it is Trey Burke (sorry, Kendall!).  They might be hoping for Ben McLemore above all.  I’m not sure I believe in him, but if he is to be the second coming of Ray Allen, well, his offense would certainly help one of the lowest scoring and worst three-point shooting teams last year.  Of course, to land McLemore, right now the common wisdom says you’ll have to have a top-2 pick, though depending on who lands above you, maybe he drops to 4 or even 5.  I’d figure that the Suns would be making googly eyes at Otto Porter and Victor Oladipo as well.

Still, of all the teams in the league, this one needs a lot of shake-up.  They don’t have a huge number of assets to dangle in the trade market, but Luis Scola could certainly be one of them.  I’d love to find a way to ship Scola off to the Thunder for their #12 pick – and there is a way, though it would have to be a delayed trade.  The Thunder could select both their #12 and #29 picks for Phoenix, sign them to maximum rookie scale (120% of scale, which most players are signed to anyhow), and then trade both of them for Scola under the current trade rules.  The Suns could net a Steven Adams or a Kelly Olynyk or maybe even a Cody Zeller at the #12 and then get both the #29 (Thunder) and #30 (already theirs) to play around with (on top of their lotto pick).  Somehow they’re going to have to turn it around, and stocking up on picks, hoping some of them pan out, and looking forward to the 2014 draft may be the best route for the Suns right now.

Sacramento Kings

Posts(4): DeMarcus Cousins (1), Jason Thompson (3+1t), Patrick Patterson (1), Chuck Hayes (2)
Wings(3): John Salmons (1+1t), Marcus Thornton (2), Travis Outlaw (2)
Guards(1+1t): Jimmer Fredette (1+1t), Isaiah Thomas (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Team Option + 3 RFA

Major Free Agents: Cole Aldrich, Tyreke Evans (RFA), James Johnson (RFA), Toney Douglas (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $44M Cap Holds: Evans 13, Johnson 7, Douglas 5, Aldrich 3; Total cap holds of $29M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates:  John Salmons (2/$14.5M), only other eligible player is DeMarcus Cousins.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #6 Lotto slot; Second round: #36

hank you, Vivek Ranadivé!  Thank you, David Stern!  Our long regional nightmare is over and the Kings will be staying in Sacramento.  Permanently.  Our new ownership group inherits a fanbase that is incredibly rabid and will show up to root for any team, no matter how bad (witness two of the five longest sellout streaks in NBA history, one of those coming through mostly sub-.500 seasons – but don’t discount how years of Maloofery in gutting the team, torpedoing arena deal after arena deal, and nonstop attempts to move the team can depress turnout).  Unfortunately, new ownership also inherits a team that isn’t that good.  For instance, this is a team that in the last four drafts earned the #4, #5, #7, and #5 picks and now has only a 4% chance of getting worse than the #7 pick this year.  While President of Basketball Operations Geoff Petrie did reasonably well with the first two of those picks (Evans won Rookie of the Year but has subsequently had his strengths curiously ignored in the offense; DeMarcus Cousins continually shows signs of being one of the best and most skilled big men in the league but can’t keep his head on straight), the next two have so far been pretty disastrous, with the #7 pick in 2011 traded down for the opportunity to draft Jimmer Fredette at #10 and take on the bad contract of John Salmons, and the #5 pick in 2012 used on Thomas Robinson, widely considered to be the most NBA-ready player at the top of the draft and thought by some to be the second-best player available only for Robinson to spend 2/3 of a season demonstrating no offensive skill, a complete inability to rebound, and hands somewhere between butterfingers and non-stick spray palms.  Before the trade deadline the Kings gave up on Robinson, trading him to Houston for a package of players (Patrick Patterson, Toney Douglas, Cole Aldrich) who at least gave them pretty consistent minutes.

Years ago (those would be the Rick Adelman years), Sacramento got a reputation as a place where troubled players went to get healthy.  Nowadays it’s viewed as a place where talented players go to have their talents wasted.  Part of this is due to a long string of ineffective head coaches (Eric Musselman, Reggie Theus, Kenny Natt, Paul Westphal, and incumbent Keith Smart), part of this is due to the Maloofs being reluctant to spend above the salary floor, and part is probably due to an imperfectly-constructed roster.  This is the mess that Vivek Ranadivé, Mark Mastrov, the Jacobs family, and the other investors have inherited.

Their first move will likely be to fire head coach Keith Smart, who has cruelly been selected by the outgoing Maloofs as the Kings’ representative at the draft lottery.  If the Kings finally do have their lotto combo called (something which last happened 22 years ago against ridiculous odds), Keith Smart will be forced to act happy about an organization he will no longer be associated with landing a draft pick whom he will no longer be around to coach.  It’s an unenviable task.  There’s some buzz that the coaching search may begin and end with Jerry Sloan, who interestingly rejected the Bucks coaching job about a day after the Kings sale to the Ranadivé group became all but assured when the NBA Board of Governors rejected the Seattle relocation.  Now, there’s plenty of speculation that Sloan wants to move to a winning roster, but Kings fans have been screaming for years that their roster is good enough to win if they only had a real coach.

Speaking of the roster, the real hole is at the SF, where the Kings have been playing guards John Salmons, Tyreke Evans, and even Marcus Thornton in order to avoid  playing James Johnson and Travis Outlaw there.  Point guard is also unsettled – the Kings dumped backup Aaron Brooks mid-season in favor of no-D Isaiah Thomas, with some minutes going to the former PG-apparent and potential RFA Tyreke Evans, some going to trade deadline acquisition and defensive stalwart Toney Douglas, and some going to the no-D, dribble-challenged Jimmer.  The post is not a disaster, and while depth is not a problem (Jason Thompson, Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, and FA Cole Aldrich) the only star power is the volatile Cousins.

With very little set in stone, the rebooted rebuild is going to start at the draft, where the Kings will likely pick at #6 or #7 (Update: 7. This makes it 22 years since the Kings have had their combo selected in the lottery, which has got to be a record given the number of times they’ve been in the lottery).  While the Kings would like to find a franchise SF in this draft, without hitting the lottery it would seem unlikely that Otto Porter will be there for their pick.  That leaves Shabazz Muhammad, who is pretty clearly a SG, and some lower-ranked international prospects like Sergey Karasev, Giannis Adetokoubo, and Dario Saric.  It’s possible that one of these guys will sky in the workouts (and as tempting as Adetokoubo looks, Karasev’s outside shooting might look better on this roster) but more likely the Kings will have to look at several big men.  Between Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert, and Steven Adams, I figure probably 6 of those 7 will be available, if not all 7.  (Update: Let’s say that Bennett and Len can’t BOTH be there at #7.) The Kings would probably prefer Len, who looks to have the best combination of offense and defense along with fantastic size, but he may be the most likely kid to go top-five in that group.  Bennett is a tempting prospect but is a bit undersized at the 4 and certainly won’t help the Kings’ defensive problems.  Zeller and Olynyk would slot in nicely as offensive PFs, but also don’t have the defensive cachet that would intrigue the Kings.  Gobert can play D, but is skinny enough that there are worries about him being able to hold his own in the post.  That leaves Mason Plumlee, whom I just simply don’t like, and Steven Adams, the Kiwi riser who measured out quite impressively at the draft and might actually be my second choice after Len.  Still, there’s nobody there that makes you drool.  Update: The other interesting possibility is that the way the draft shook out, there’s at least a chance that Trey Burke falls all the way to #7.  If he does, I can’t imagine the Kings passing on him.

As far as free agency goes, the Kings have about $16M of space, but they’ll need to spend about $11-$12M of that to bring back Tyreke Evans, and they would be stupid not to bring him back.  Regardless, Sacramento will obviously bring back Isaiah Thomas, on whom they hold a sub-$1M team option, and will obviously decline to make a QO to James Johnson.  Toney Douglas’ QO is a tough call – I really like the defensive intensity he brought off the bench, but a $3M QO may be a bit steep for a team not really sure where their future lies and potentially looking for other free agents. In the end, I’m going to say that he does get the QO, because the Kings have other ways to clear salary space if they need to.

One obvious way to clear space is to amnesty John Salmons.  That would cost them a little under $8.6M over the next two years, but would free up all but $1M of that this year.  The other way is with their best trade asset, Marcus Thornton.  Thornton’s salary is a bit high at $8M, but for a guy who can light it up for three, somebody will probably be willing to take that hit.  Still, barring a miracle trade or a miracle signing, the Kings will likely struggle again next year as they try to build a contender.  The one thing that Kings fans can now be happy about is that money no longer appears to be the limiting factor in that fight.

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Northwest Division

I know this is the Northwest Division and as such this news has no actual relevance (it is in fact relevant to the Pacific Division), but it is now official that the Sacramento Kings are staying in Sacramento and being sold to the Ranadivé group.  This is the biggest win for Sacramento…ever, really.  But it’s time to get moving on these previews to hopefully get them out before the lottery.  Why?  Because then I can update all the lotto teams after everything shakes out.  It’s less efficient that way, and that’s the way I like it.

Denver Nuggets

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(3): JaVale McGee (3), Kenneth Faried (1+1t), Kosta Koufos (1+2t)
Wings(5+1p+1t): Andre Iguodala (1p), Danilo Gallinari (3), Evan Fournier (1+2t), Wilson Chandler (2+1t), Jordan Hamilton (1+1t), Anthony Randolph (2), Quincy Miller (2t)
Guards(2): Ty Lawson (4), Andre Miller (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 10 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Corey Brewer, Andre Iguodala (p), Timofey Mozgov (RFA), Julyan Stone (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $69M assuming Iguodala doesn’t leave $16M on the table Cap Holds: Brewer 6, Mozgov 6; Total cap holds of $21M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Chris Andersen)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #27

ove over, Buffalo, it’s time for Denver Wild Wings!  The Nuggets just can’t quite seem to stop stocking up on them.  They signed Chandler mid-season last year and didn’t really use him, then they drafted Fournier and traded for Iguodala and the upshot now is that they’ve got at least five wings coming back and if Iggy can’t leave $16M on the table, they’ll have six.  I don’t really know how to read Iguodala here.  On the one hand, there are way too many wings in Denver and he might want to go somewhere that his position isn’t impacted.  On the other hand, he’s obviously the starter, so why does he care how many people are sitting on the bench behind him?  On Zaphod Beeblebrox’s third hand, there are plenty of teams out there with cap space who could bid him up.  But on my left foot, under the current CBA can Iggy really get $16M to start his contract?  Isn’t he better off just looking for his best payday next offseason?  The problem for me (and it’s all about me, let’s not kid ourselves) is that as the biggest salary on the roster, and the difference between the Nuggets being on the verge of the luxury tax and being $8M under the salary cap.  I’m going to say that Iggy doesn’t opt out…it’s probably the best call since if he does, the Nuggets will probably make an effort to sign him back anyway, so six of one, a polydactyl handful of the other.

With all of the wings on the Nuggets, I’m going to say that they don’t chase after their own FA Corey Brewer.  I’m also pretty sure that they won’t pick up the minimum salary option on Quincy Miller (26 minutes played – when you can’t even play garbage time…) With Lawson and Andre Miller wrapped up, they don’t really need to go after anything outside of an emergency backup at the point, either.  And with McGee, Faried, and Koufos, they’ve got most of what they need in the post.  I’m not really feeling a QO being made to Mozgov.  The Key To The Carmelo Trade just isn’t seeing the floor anymore and I don’t imagine the Nuggets want to guarantee him $4M when they can fill their spare post minutes more cheaply.  So with the team pushing the tax and not in a severe need (or even mild need) at any position I don’t really see the Nuggets being a big player in free agency this summer.  They’d probably be well-served to try to trade one of their wings (Chandler has some value) for a young backup PG, because Miller won’t be able to play forever.  Maybe you start by taking a long look at whichever team drafts Trey Burke – because unless they happen to be empty, they’ll have somebody at the PG losing minutes next year.

It the draft, the Nuggets are parked at #27.  I’d guess that they’d prefer to find a big man there, though trading down to the beginning of the second round (you know, for a protected future second-round pick) might be a good move just to give them some flexibility on the contract.  Presumably the post options in that range are going to include possible sleeper Mike Muscala and several foreign prospects (Nogueira, Jaiteh, Jean-Charles).  I like Muscala, but, you know, I’m not pulling the strings here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Posts(2+3t): Kevin Love (2+1p), Derrick Williams (1+1t), Greg Stiemsma (1t), Dante Cunningham (1t), Chris Johnson (1t)
Wings(1+2t+1p): Andrei Kirilenko (1p), Malcolm Lee (1), Mickael Gelabale (1t), Brandon Roy (1t)
Guards(4): Ricky Rubio (1+1t), Alexey Shved (2), Luke Ridnour (1), J.J. Barea (2)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 5 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Chase Budinger, Andrei Kirilenko (p), Nikola Pekovic (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $50M assuming Kirilenko does not opt out (not necessarily a great assumption) Cap Holds: Pekovic 9; Total cap holds of $16M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Darko Milicic)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #9 Lotto slot, #26; Second round: #52, #59

ive team options for the ‘Wolves, and basically not one of them even matters.  Well, maybe one.  OK, maybe two.  Chris Johnson’s doesn’t matter.  Mickael Gelabale’s doesn’t matter.  Brandon Roy?  His doesn’t matter either.  But that sure was a real nice screw job on the Blazers.  Hey!  Let’s lure Brandon Roy out of retirement for five games and cost Paul Allen all that insurance money!  And the suspicion is that it was all over Martell Webster.  But sadly – very, very sadly – David “Manna From Heaven” Kaaaaaaaaaaahn! is out as GM in Minnesota, which means that normalcy may return to the Timberwolves’ offseason after years and years of P.A.G.A.N. (And by “people” Dan Aykroyd means David Kahn.)

All right, all right.  Enough about the guy who drafted Jonny Flynn immediately after Ricky Rubio.  I really ought to mention that the Dante Cunningham team option and the Greg Stiemsma team option actually might matter.  But that’s really only because they combined for over 3200 minutes on a team that was missing Kevin Love for most of the season and Nikola Pekovic for some of it.  I’m gonna say they come back but Minny probably hopes not to actually use them.

On the option front, Kirilenko has a $10M player option and that’s not an easy call.  He can probably make more on the open market, he could head back to Europe yet again, and I’m not convinced why he would want to rejoin a 31-win team.  I’m going to assume that he opts out.  That would leave the ‘Wolves with Lee and perhaps Shved at the wing, so I think we’ve identified a position of need.  While they could try to fill it with a free agent (they’ll have about $20M to spend if Kirilenko bails out) I just don’t see a top-tier free agent signing there.  The draft, however, has a very tempting wing in Shabazz Muhammad.  ‘Bazz was a kid who was in the discussion for the #1 overall pick before a somewhat disappointing freshman season at UCLA (the real disappointment is in the fact that he simply won’t pass the ball) and the revelation that he is a year older than previously thought.  Now, he’s probably there at #9 (Update: where Minny stayed), and what bargain is better than a guy who fills a position of need and was once a #1 overall candidate?  You know, the last guy who was once in consideration for the #1 overall who fell into the middle of the lottery was a guy named Harrison Barnes, and right now he’s looking pretty damn good.  So I’m going to call the ‘Wolves taking a chance on uniting Bruins Kevin Love and Muhammad.  The ‘Wolves also have the #26 pick, and I’d probably spend it on a big man, just like I’m suggesting the Nuggets do above.  It’s essentially the same pick (one slot earlier) so throw in the same names.  I’m not even going to copy-and-paste them.  Scroll up, lazy ass.

Oh, and I completely ignored Pekovic’s QO.  He gets it, and then the ‘Wolves match whatever offer he gets.  That’s really going to be where their cap space goes.  For good reason.  I don’t think Rubio/Love/Pek/Bazz is going to get it done, but that’s how I see the Wolves shaping up next year.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Posts(3+2t): Serge Ibaka (4), Kendrick Perkins (2), Nick Collison (2), Hasheem Thabeet (2t), Daniel Orton (2t)
Wings(4+1t): Kevin Durant (3), Thabo Sefolosha (1), Jeremy Lamb (1+2t), Perry Jones (1+2t), DeAndre Liggins (1t)
Guards(2): Russell Westbrook (4), Reggie Jackson (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 9 + 3 Team Option

Major Free Agents: Kevin Martin, Ronnie Brewer, Derek Fisher

2013 Cap Situation: $67M Cap Holds: Martin 16; Total cap holds of $21M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates – Durant, Perkins, Sefolosha and Nick Collison are their remaning eligible players.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #12 Lotto slot, #29; Second round: #32

oo bad that Russell Westbrook got hurt – I really thought that the Thunder might give a decent challenge to the Heat this year.  But it wasn’t to be.  I wonder if they would have fared any better against the Grizz had they, I don’t know, held on to James Harden?  The Harden trade came out of the blue, and was pretty much a money thing.  The Thunder didn’t really get anything of supreme value back.  They got Lamb, who I don’t really like, they got Kevin Martin, whose value was damaged when the NBA changed its rules on shooting fouls on the perimeter (his FTA/FGA ratio has gone from 0.565 in the “glory” years to 0.323 over the past two seasons), and they got a couple of draft picks.  Now Martin is a free agent and they’ve got to try to bring him back or replace him, because behind Durant and Sefolosha, there’s not much value at the wing in OKC.  Seeing as they’re well over the cap, their best bet is to use Martin’s cap hold.  He won’t make the $12.5M he made last year, but at the $8-9M range he would seem to have some value and the Thunder can’t spend that kind of money on any other free agent.

Looking beyond the wing (don’t look at the wing, William Shatner!) the Thunder probably need to base their first draft pick from the Harden trade (#12 Update: and it’s still #12 after the lottery)) on how they feel about two players: Hasheem Thabeet and Reggie Jackson.  That is, does one of these guys need to be challenged for his backup minutes, or should they take another wing.  The crazy answer is, I think that they need to take a wing.  I don’t know if you’ve seen film on Giannis Adetokoubo, but the slim Nigerian-born Greek-national bears a striking resemblance to Kevin Durant in the way he moves on the court.  It would be kind of funny to put them together on a team and watch the announcers get confused.  But I think the better pick here may be Sergey Karasev.  Karasev is a sweet-shooting Russian who has good height (listed as 6’7″) but might just be quick enough to play some 2.  Somebody is going to take a long hard look at this kid, and it might as well be the Thunder.  They’ve got the luxury of time to develop him, and honestly, if they draft him they might be able to chop a few years off of Martin’s contract (if nobody else is willing to pony up the years).

OKC also has two picks at #29 and #32.  I figure they ought to look for that #2/3 PG and that #3/4 big man here.  I think they’d probably want more of a pure point to give some contrast to the Westbrook/Jackson shoot-first style.  The best passer in this range (if he falls) is Lorenzo Brown, who is in my opinion not getting nearly enough draft love.  Brown should be gone by #29 in my mind, but not all the projections agree.  If he isn’t, he’d fit nicely.  As for big men in this range, I’m going to reference the Minnesota Timberwolves write-up above. (OK, that was mean.  Still, I’m not changing it.)

Portland Trailblazers

Posts(3): LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Meyers Leonard (1+2t), Joel Freeland (2)
Wings(3+1t): Nicolas Batum (3), Wesley Matthews (2), Victor Claver (2), Sasha Pavolvic (2t)
Guards(2): Damian Lillard (1+2t), Will Barton (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Team Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: J.J. Hickson, Nolan Smith, Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams, Eric Maynor (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $45M Cap Holds: Hickson 7.5, Maynor 6; Total cap holds of $22M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Brandon Roy)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #10 Lotto slot; Second round: #39, #40, #45

eyers Leonard (Portland’s 2012 first-round NOT named Damian Lillard) played just over 1200 minutes this year, and was the only Blazer to log over 1000 minutes off of the bench.  The five starters averaged 2700 minutes each (the lowest total was J.J. Hickson with over 2300 minutes).  So basically, what I’m saying is that Portland more or less played five guys last year: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Hickson, and Aldridge.  That makes replacing (or resigning) free agent and one of the most hated Sacramento Kings ever, J.J. Hickson (WS/48 Sacramento: -.01; WS/48 Not Sacramento: .101, .123, .032, .147, .142), a pretty serious priority.  The Blazers do have the cap space to bring him back, but they’re probably going to have to give him a bit of a raise from his $4M this year – he’s probably looking at $7-8M per on a four-year deal.  I would think that Portland would like to have some beef next to Aldridge, and as such if they can’t come to terms with Hickson they may need to go after a guy like Samuel Dalembert (or Tiago Splitter in restricted free agency), because the list of guys who can rebound and defend is pretty limited.

Eric Maynor also got decent minutes in Portland after they received him in trade mid-season, and they’ll almost certainly give him his $3.4M QO and hold on to him to back up Lillard.  That would mean that the Blazers don’t really have any needs at the PG, so they’ll probably look at the wing or the post in the draft, where they are slotted to (Update: And will) select #10.  Although Portland has been pretty big on international prospects in the recent past (Batum, Claver, Freeland), I would say that they’re another good bet to take a look at Shabazz Muhammad, who at least early in his career should be able to step in off the bench behind Matthews without too much dropoff.  Failing that, Cody Zeller and Kelly Olynyk both look to have a future in the post and either might become a decent option if Portland were to lose the services of Aldridge in the future.  And any one of those guys ought to help Portland get a few more minutes out of their bench.

Utah Jazz

Posts(2): Derrick Favors (1), Enes Kanter (1+1t)
Wings(3+1p+1t): Gordon Hayward (1), Alec Burks (1+1t), Jeremy Evans (2), Marvin Williams (1p), Kevin Murphy (1t)
Guards(o): Not a sausage

Total players under contract next year: 5 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Maurice Williams, Randy Foye, Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley, DeMarre Carroll, Marvin Williams (p)

2013 Cap Situation: $28M even with Marvin Williams opting in Cap Holds: Jefferson 16, Millsap 13, Mo Williams 13, Foye 3, Watson 3; Total cap holds of $65M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates; only Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward are eligible.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #14 Lotto slot, #21; Second round: #46

ive players are all that are guaranteed to come back from the best team to miss the playoffs this year, though Marvin Williams would seem unlikely to turn down his $7.5M player option.  Even with Williams keeping that contract, the Jazz are going to have over $30M to spend this offseason. There’s been some suspicion for a while that the Jazz would really like to turn over their frontcourt to the future – Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter.  Well, with both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap free agents, that would appear to be a real option at this point.  Still, they’ve got to spend the money somewhere, and they’re not really weak at the wing so I can’t imagine that they’d go after an Iguodala, though perhaps I can see them chasing after Josh Smith and asking him to play the ‘tweener position.  Where they may want to spend some money would be at the PG position, where they have literally nobody coming back – a rare instance where the word “literally” is used literally instead of as an exaggeration.  I would imagine that Chris Paul is going to return to Lob City, but there are three other guards potentially on the market with varying PG skills that would probably enjoy using up some of Utah’s cap space.  There’s Monta Ellis, who seems probable to opt out of his contract, and there are both Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans who will be RFAs (though both from teams who will likely match).  I do think Jose Calderon would look nice in Utah if the Jazz can’t land a bigger name and if the Pistons don’t pony up to bring him back.

Even with a relatively big contract given out to a PG, the Jazz will have the space to bring back one of their two free agent posts, and with Favors and Kanter complementing each other on the offensive end, perhaps the Jazz would prefer to bring back the likely-cheaper Millsap, as he’ll do a better job of defending the stretch-4, something neither Kanter or Favors is ideally suited to do (obviously, if they do successfully land Josh Smith then both Jefferson and Millsap would be likely to leave town).

The Jazz do have two first-round picks at #14 (at least the #14 lotto slot (Update: Which unsurprisingly didn’t change)) and #21, and with the number of players they need to add this offseason I think they’d prefer to keep both of them rather than try to package them and move up.  Of course, they’re probably going to be hoping pretty heavily for a PG in the draft.  At #14, I would guess that either Michael Carter-Williams or Dennis Schroeder (and I prefer the latter) would be in their sights, though there is a realistic chance that both players are gone by #14.  If they really do want a PG and get the wrong draft vibe, they might well package those picks to get into the Portland slot at #10 or the Philly slot at #11 (obviously, neither team is in desperate need of a PG so they wouldn’t be terribly shy about letting the Jazz jump over them to take a player they’ weren’t after anyway).  Assuming they end up keeping the #21, I think they’ve got to go BPA.  I’ve got a feeling (probably wrong, as they all are) that Mason Plumlee is going to drop in this draft.  If he does, I think #21 is a good floor for him, so I’m going to go out on that limb and put him in a Jazz uniform next year.

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Southwest Division

And now, the Western Conference, where I always feel a bit more confident in making predictions (and where my record is probably no better, truth be guessed).  But really, folks, “Western” does mean “better”.  Carl’s Jr.’s “Western Bacon Cheeseburger”?  Hmm?  Refute that argument, Aristotle!

Dallas Mavericks

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(1+1t): Dirk Nowitzki (1), Bernard James (1t)
Wings(2+2p): Vince Carter (1), Jae Crowder (1+1t), Shawn Marion (1p), O.J. Mayo (1p)
Guards(1): Jared Cunningham (1+2t)

Total players under contract next year: 4 + 1 Team Option + 2 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Chris Kaman, Brandan Wright, Anthony Morrow, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion (p), O.J. Mayo (p), Darren Collison (RFA), Rodrigue Beaubois (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $39M assuming Mayo opts out and Marion does not Cap Holds: Kaman 9.5, Morrow 7.5, Collison 6, Beaubois 5.5, May0 5, Brand 4; Total cap holds of $42M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Brendan Haywood)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #13 Lotto slot; Second round: #44

ime marches on, and finally the Mavericks have missed the playoffs.  I had a feeling that I had made a prediction to that effect for several years running and finally gave up on doing so last year, but that doesn’t appear to be the case – two years ago I said I had been predicting their demise for years but wasn’t going to do so again in the face of consistent results, but that seems to be it.  The other predictions must have been in my head.  But finally, with the Mavericks’ inability to lure Deron Williams into the fold, they succumbed to age and will now need to address the ugly rebuild.  Dirk is going to be 35 years old, has dropped off pretty severely in both effectiveness and number of games played over the past three years, and costs nearly $23M next year.  He’s still a good player, but he’s going to drag the Mavericks down with that contract.  So how do they work around it?  Well, Marion probably decides to take that player option for $9.3M, so there’s no cap relief there.  But they still do have about $20M to spend (assuming that Mayo takes the obvious opt-out of his $4.2M contract next year) – the problem is that they’ve got very little to build around.  The further problem (and I think the biggest one for the Mavs) is that Mayo is unrestricted and they don’t have any Bird rights on him, so his cap hold ($4.8M) is probably at least $2M less than the offers that are going to come in.  If the Mavs hope to spend to keep him, they have to clear cap space.  I figure it looks something like this: The Mavs make their QO to Collison and renounce their cap holds for everybody else (including Beaubois).  That will allow them to match an offer to Collison while also keeping enough cap space to sign Mayo.  Those two probably cost them $15M and they need to seriously rework their front line with about $4-5M and the room exception.  It’s going to be a tough haul, and I don’t care to speculate on which lower-level free agents they try to lure in, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see Elton Brand returning on the cheap as a part of it.

The Mavericks’ lotto pick this year may actually help them out, as there are quite a few post players that may fall in the draft to the #13 slot (Update: which is where they stay).  Cody Zeller probably won’t fall that far, but Kelly “The Clinic” Olynyk has a chance of it, and could be a steal – a skilled and fleet seven-footer destined to play PF.  Remind you of anybody?  If not Olynyk, Rudy Gobert would be another guy who is looking like he’ll be there, and while he’s unlikely to turn out as an offensive player, his incredible length projects him to be a defensive stopper – not always the easiest thing to come by in the late lottery.  At any rate, I figure the Mavs will try to go large if at all possible, just to fill in the gaps between Dirk, Bernard James, and whatever free agents they can sign on the cheap.  Update: There are whispers that the Mavs might be willing to part with this pick for salary relief in an attempt to sign Dwight Howard.  Well, Mark Cuban, have I got the deal for you!  You can trade the #13 and Shawn Marion’s big 1-year player option to the Kings for Travis Outlaw.  That’ll knock about $7.5M off of your cap.  Done deal?  Please? (Of course, Marion being a potential free agent would have to pick up his player option and there’s basically no way to make this deal work under the current cap rules, especially with Marion’s trade kicker, but…)

Houston Rockets

Posts(4+2t): Omer Asik (2), Donatas Motiejunas (1+2t), Greg Smith (1t), Thomas Robinson (1+2t), Royce White (1+2t), Tim Olbrecht (2t)
Wings(2+4t): James Harden (4+1t), Chandler Parsons (2t), Terrence Jones (1+2t), James Anderson (2t), Francisco Garcia (1t), Carlos Delfino (1t)
Guards(1+2t): Jeremy Lin (2), Patrick Beverley (2t), Aaron Brooks (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 8 Team Option

Major Free Agents: No free agents

2013 Cap Situation: $41M minus Garcia Cap Holds: Garcia 9; Total cap holds of $10M.  No exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Luis Scola)

2013 Draft Picks: Second round: #34

orey loves him some unguaranteed money and team options.  In fact, of the FIFTEEN PLAYERS that Houston has under contract this offseason, only two (Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik) do not have a team option or unguaranteed money in at least the final year of the contract.  In those 13 contracts, the Rockets hold 19 team options, and you can be pretty sure that some of them will be gone this year, because the Rockets will try to get better in the season following one of the most shocking trades in memory, where the Rockets absolutely stole James Harden from the Thunder.  The Rockets will clear space by dumping Francisco Garcia’s team option and Aaron Brooks’ unguaranteed money (though we don’t have a report on how much it is, I figure he’s gone given his stellar 38 total minutes following his waiver from Sacramento.  James Anderson and Tim Olbrecht are two more guys that the Rockets have little incentive to keep around.  On the other hand, Chandler Parsons at under $1M is about the simplest decision anybody has to make this summer.  Greg Smith and Patrick Beverley also ought to be back on their cheapie contracts, leaving only Carlos Delfino’s $3M as a question mark.  If they cut him, that leaves Houston with a bit short of $20M in cap space, 10 players, and needs for a 3rd wing, a 3rd string PG, and a starting big to play next to Asik if they can find one (sorry, Thomas Robinson!)  Well, Dwight Howard isn’t really a PF, but I’d bet that the Rockets throw their keys in that bowl under the premise that if one wife is good, two wives is better.  In the likely case that Howard goes elsewhere, I imagine that the Rockets will move on down the list…Bynum, Jefferson, Millsap…and by the time they get this far down, they probably have snagged somebody.  As far as filling out the wing goes, they’d probably like a bit of versatile defense.  Tony Allen may prefer to stick around in Memphis, but the price for Corey Brewer could almost certainly be met.  I’m really not enough of a navelgazer to suggest a third-string PG for them, though.  Be my guest; pick whomever.

The Rockets do have an early second-round pick out of Phoenix, and there’s always a chance it could turn into something.  Myck Kabongo could be an interesting pick at #34, as he would effectively replace the smaller Aaron Brooks and provide the scoring punch and passing that Beverley doesn’t quite bring.

Memphis Grizzlies

Posts(4): Zach Randolph (1+1p), Marc Gasol (2), Darrell Arthur (1+1p), Ed Davis (1)
Wings(2): Tayshaun Prince (2), Quincy Pondexter (1)
Guards(2+1p): Mike Conley (3), Jerryd Bayless (1p), Tony Wroten (1+2t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Player Option + 3 RFA

Major Free Agents: Tony Allen, Jerryd Bayless (p), Austin Daye (RFA), Dexter Pittman (RFA), Jon Leuer (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $58M Cap Holds: Daye 7, Allen 6, Bayless 3.5; Total cap holds of $30M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley are the only eligible players remaining.

2013 Draft Picks: Second round: #41, #55, #60

acing the Thunder without Russell Westbrook isn’t quite the challenge of facing them with him, but the Grizzlies are currently putting up one heck of a fight in the Western Conference Semis, and to be honest considering Russell’s injury they might be the team to beat in the West at this point (right after I finished writing this, the Grizzlies went up 3-1 on the Thunder in the Western Conference Semis).  I don’t really think that was foreseeable two years ago.  The Grizzlies are pretty lucky in that for the most part their playoff core is returning next year, and outside of Tayshaun, none of them are old enough to worry about them slowing down.  Of course, there are complications.  First off, Tony Allen is a free agent, and with his reputation rising, the Grizz will probably have to open up their wallets to the tune of his cap hold – about $6M.  Bayless is another question mark – in this case because of a PO at $3M.  That’s probably less than he could make on the market, and probably right on the edge of the discount he’d be willing to take to stick with a championship contender.  I would guess that Memphis hopes that Bayless sticks around, especially considering that they’d probably have to offer their MLE if he opted out.  Of course, retaining these two will have consequences – the most salient being the necessity of declining to offer Austin Daye a $4M QO.  Daye will end up somewhere else this summer, and whoever signs him will probably be very happy with their new 25-yo, long, tall wing who shoots over .400 from three.  The Grizzlies just can’t afford to hold on to him.  But outside of losing Daye (and likely Dexter Pittman and Jon Leuer, because they don’t really matter), the Grizz will look more or less identical to last year, if they have their druthers.

The Grizzlies do have three second round picks this year, but seeing as the first is at #41, there’s not likely to be much in the way of rotation-cracking to be found.  This, of course, is the perfect situation for several draft-and-stashes.  Let’s just say Alex Abrines (if available) and Bojan Dubljevic (as a name completely picked out of a bowl of soup) for two of those three…and if I get both right, you have to give me the deed to your house, because calling two late second round picks a month and a half before the draft is totally not ever going to happen, especially since I really don’t know anything about either guy.

New Orleans Hornets Pelicans

Posts(2+3t): Anthony Davis (1+2t), Ryan Anderson (3), Robin Lopez (2t), Jason Smith (1t), Lance Thomas (1t)
Wings(1+1t): Eric Gordon (2+1p), Darius Miller (1t)
Guards(2+1t): Greivis Vasquez (1), Austin Rivers (1+2t), Brian Roberts (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 5 + 5 Team Option

Major Free Agents: Al-Farouq Aminu, Xavier Henry, Louis Amundson

2013 Cap Situation: $42M Cap Holds: Aminu 4, Henry 3; Total cap holds of $12M.  No exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No eligible candidates remaining

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #5 Lotto slot

aking Austin Rivers at #10, or changing their name to the “Pelicans”…which was the worse decision?  I think it may be too close to call.  Pelicans are known not for basketball, but for catching fish in their throat pouch.  Rivers is known not for basketball, but for getting thoroughly outclassed by 27-yo rookie Brian Roberts, who spent 5 years playing in Israel and Germany and whose first entry on Google is the 17th result under his own name, behind 14 pages about the baseball player and two pages about a classical guitarist.  Given how well Rivers played this year, it would be only equitable if a counterpart Google search came up with the (other) Colorado River, but sometimes life is not fair.  Speaking of not fair, Anthony Davis AND Eric Gordon spent significant amounts of time injured this season, and the Hornipelicets would likely have been a much better team with both of them around.  Luckily, they can hope for that next year.  New Orleans has a relatively empty bill for next season, with only 5 players coming back on guaranteed contracts. Of course, Brian Roberts will be back for under a mill.  Robin Lopez is interesting case – they can cut him for $0.5M, but if they don’t they’re on the hook for 2/$10.5M.  Still, Robin Lopez is worth 2/$10.5M, so they’ll keep him around.  Jason Smith also gave them some good minutes (even though they were somewhat slim in number) so his $2.5M TO ought to get picked up.  Between the three of those players, the Pelicans (it’s so hard to type that) will be bringing back 8 players before having to make a decision on the inexpensive Lance Thomas and Darius Miller.

X. Henry and Lou Amundson are probably going to move elsewhere in free agency, but Al-Farouq Aminu was a killer on the boards last year and played good defense, so New Orleans is likely to offer decent money to bring him back.  Sure, they’ve got about $18M to spend, but they won’t be a huge free agent destination – maybe they grab a Stephen Jackson or a Nick Young, but I can’t see them messing with the core too much.  Not that it’s a good core (yet) but there’s some promise there and I think the ‘Cans would like to let it gel a bit (barring the unlikely landing of a star), which is really why I think they’ve got to try to bring Aminu back and maintain some consistency.

In the draft, the Pelicans have the #5 lotto slot, which is going to give them a good shot at the top, and failing that, they’ll still have a good shot at a good player.  In a somewhat strange twist, they’re probably hoping that they don’t hit one of the top two slots.  Noel duplicates Davis, McLemore duplicates Gordon, and if those two guys are the consensus top-two, then the Hornets may as well pick at #3 where they can grab either Trey Burke (and no, Austin Rivers does NOT preclude this, and no, Greivis Vasquez for all his great passing this year does not preclude this) or a hopeful future fixture at the SF in Otto Porter.  Anthony Bennett would be a very interesting pick for them as well, putting a Barkleyesque PF offense next to Davis in the post.  Tempting.  Update: The Pelicans fall to #6, where they’re probably choosing between two of Burke, Oladipo, Bennett, and Len.  Oladipo doesn’t make a lot of sense unless they decide to move Gordon, but the other three guys could all be made to fit.

As an interesting note, it appears that the Pelicans are the first team to run out of legal amnesty candidates without actually using their amnesty.

San Antonio Spurs

Posts(2+1t+1p): Tim Duncan (1+1p), Boris Diaw (1p), Matt Bonner (1t), Aron Baynes (1)
Wings(2): Kawhi Leonard (1+1t), Danny Green (2)
Guards(3+1p): Tony Parker (1+1t), Nando De Colo (1), Cory Joseph (1+1t), Patty Mills (1p)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 1 Team Option + 2 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Manu Ginobili, Stephen Jackson, DeJuan Blair, Patty Mills (p), Boris Diaw (p), Tiago Splitter (RFA), Gary Neal (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $40M assuming Diaw doesn’t opt out Cap Holds: ; Total cap holds of $58M.  Only MLE exception available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates.  Only Tony Parker and Matt Bonner are eligible – Bonner can be cut for $1M and I don’t see a scenario where paying $4M for an extra $1M of capspace is useful.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #28; Second round: #58

anu?  Still kicking.  Duncan?  Still kicking.  Parker?  Still kicking.  And that’s (at least part of) how the Spurs are now one game away from the Western Conference Finals.  Of course, only one of those guys is a free agent, 35 years old, and has missed 54 games over the last two seasons.  (Not pointing any fingers, Manu.)  Yes, the Spurs have reloaded with the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter and Danny Green and Gary Neal, but if they can bring back Ginobili for a two-year contract around $10M per, they’ve got to be ecstatic to keep the team together.  Splitter and Neal both can be made RFAs, and I’d guess both of them get their QOs.  To pay for them, the Spurs have about $20M in cap space assuming Boris Diaw doesn’t opt out.  I don’t know what to think about Diaw. $4.7M is probably more than he can get on the open market nowadays, but he could just go to Europe.  I figure he sticks around, but it’s not a sure thing.  Anyhow, between Ginobili, Splitter and Neal, the Spurs will probably end up using most of their cap space, so it’s easy to imagine that Stephen Jackson and DeJuan Blair will be forced to find work elsewhere.  After that is said and done, I wonder if they might throw an MLE at a guy like Carl Landry to try to get a bit more scoring in the post.  (Not to disparage Duncan, or anything.)

In the draft, the Spurs are way down at #28, where there isn’t a lot to grab.  But the Spurs being the perspicacious organization that they are, they probably won’t miss at the bottom of the draft, so if currently somewhat-undervalued talents like Archie Goodwin or Jamaal Franklin fall that far, they’re unlikely to fall any farther.  But in the end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rising Euro like Livio Jean-Charles be the pick.  At the very least, I can only imagine that they won’t screw it up.

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Central Division

By Grand Central Division I Sat Down And Wept:

And what will the Rose and the briar tell my sister’s children playing near the grave? It pricks my hand, the pretty flower. Of a Rose is all my song.

Chicago Bulls

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(3): Joakim Noah (3), Carlos Boozer (2), Taj Gibson (4)
Wings(2+1t): Luol Deng (1), Jimmy Butler (1+1t), Richard Hamilton (1t)
Guards(3): Derrick Rose (4), Kirk Hinrich (1), Marquis Teague (1+2t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Team Option

Major Free Agents: Marco Belinelli, Nazr Mohammed, Nate Robinson

2013 Cap Situation: $74M Cap Holds: Total cap holds of $8M.  Only tMLE exception available (Bi-Annual used last year).

Amnesty Candidates: Carlos Boozer (2/$32M), Joakim Noah and Luol Deng only other eligible candidates remaining.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #20; Second Round: #49

or all their injury trouble, the Bulls not only got by the Nets in the first round, but have now taken a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Semis…over the Heat. OK, it’s one game, but it’s an indication that this is a pretty darn good team.  Imagine what kind of damage they could do with Rose and Deng, both of whom are under contract next year.  One guy who’s not going to be under contract next year is Richard Hamilton.  Rip’s TO is for $5M, with $1M guaranteed.  Hamilton is getting up there, has been increasingly injured, and didn’t really play all that well this year while he was in.  Still, dumping Hamilton doesn’t really do anything but get them down to the fringe of the tax “apron”.  There aren’t a ton of options for clearing cap space available to the Bulls.  There’s always amnesty, but I seriously can’t imagine they amnesty Boozer, and Noah and Deng are out of the question.  This team is what it is.  They’ve had so much success with Super Nate that they’re liable to offer him the tMLE, but the rest of the roster is sure to be cobbled together from their first-round (and potentially second-round) draft pick and minimum contracts.  It’s really not that bad when you consider that the back of the bench isn’t going to contribute much anyway.

So they don’t do much.  This offseason is more about making sure that Derrick Rose is healthy and ready to go for the four years (and $78M!!) remaining on his contract.  With Boozer, Deng, and Noah in place the Bulls really aren’t going to look to make any changes at all until they know where Derrick Rose stands, anyway.  And more than likely, they’re hosting a first-round playoff series come April of next year, so why should they mess that up?

The Bulls are in perfect position to take a project player in the first round, and one intriguing name that might be on the board is Steven Adams.  He’s probably not an offensive player in the show, but his defense has a chance to keep him on the floor for the long haul, and is there a better defensive mentor in the league right now than Joakim Noah?  On the other hand, if the Bulls are looking for immediate help it would probably be at the wing.  And if there is anybody in this draft who can provide minutes at the wing right now on a top-tier playoff team and is available at #20 in the draft, it’s probably Tim Hardaway, Jr.  I’m going out on that limb.  Hardaway is the only guy.  If the Bulls take any other player, their pick won’t play big (750+) minutes.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Posts(3+1p+1t): Anderson Varejao (1+1t), Tristan Thompson (1+1t), Tyler Zeller (1+2t), Marreese Speights (1p), Kevin Jones (1t)
Wings(2): Dion Waiters (1+2t), Alonso Gee (1+1t)
Guards(1+2t): Kyrie Irving (1+1t), C.J. Miles (1t), Chris Quinn (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 6 + 3 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents:Luke Walton, Daniel Gibson, Shaun Livingston, Marreese Speights (p), Wayne Ellington (RFA), Omri Casspi (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $37M Cap Holds: Walton 9, Gibson 9, Casspi 6, Ellington 5; Total cap holds of $36M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Baron Davis)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #3 Lotto slot, #19; Second Round: #31, #33

hree team options, and at least two of them would seem to be easy declines, with Chris Quinn and Kevin Jones contributing about zero.  C.J. Miles has a reasonable contract, but if that $2.2M will help the Cavs land a free agent or if they pick a PG in the draft to back up Irving it would be easy enough to let go.  I don’t see Speights backing out of his 4.5M player option, so the Cavs will likely have four guys in the backcourt with only Varejao a sure thing.  Omri Casspi is a goner, but Wayne Ellington’s QO would seem to be a likely delivery, and I don’t think his value on the market is going to be enough for him to get pried away.  They might let him go, but they have to spend their about $23M in cap space somehow and it’s not like free agents are lining up at Dan Gilbert’s door unless they’re tagging it in Comic Sans (it’s the joke that keeps on giving!)

Like everybody else, Cleveland does have the luxury of being able to base their free agent period on their draft, but in their case it really may shape their thinking, so it’s useful to consider the draft first.  Cleveland has the #3 Lotto slot (so top 6), the #19 and two early second rounders.  I’m not going to put a lot of stock in the second round of this draft, but let’s see where their picks can lead us.  There’s a huge temptation to expect the Cavs to do something unexpected with their lotto pick – two years in a row the Cavs had the #4 pick and went against the consensus picking for need, grabbing Tristan Thompson and then Dion Waiters.  The safe thinking is that the Cavs can’t possibly take a PG to compete with Irving, but a SF would be ideal.  Otto Porter is the obvious choice, so who’s the crazy we-love-him-and-nobody-else-does pick?  It’s probably Sergey Karasev.  Maybe it goes to Giannis “spelling still being finalized” Adetokoubo.  At any rate, that lotto pick goes to a SF.  Update: For the second time in three years, the Cavaliers win the lotto.  This pretty much takes the crazy pick off the board.  You cannot go “crazy pick” at #1.  Smart money says the pick is Noel.  Then again, I’ve said for a while that Porter is the best player in the draft…is it a “crazy pick” to take a guy who could easily go #3 at #1 in this draft?  When you have a positional need?  I wouldn’t put it past them, but the better move would be to hold out and try to trade down.  Hey, Washington!  You too can get Nerlens Noel for the low, low price of your #3 pick and Jan Vesely…OK, the Wiz don’t have much to offer here.  Forget it, just take Porter.  At #19, they are yet another team who is going to be looking for a defensive big, in this case to eventually supplant Varejao – or even to take over now if he can be flipped for something useful.  Gobert/Dieng/Adams/Withey…somebody’s going to be available.  With their second rounders, there would seem to be little chance of them passing on C.J. Leslie if he’s available just on the off chance that he can find some motivation, then maybe a guy like Nate Wolters – a backup PG that doesn’t really threaten to be anything more than that.

After all that, I think they still spend their money on a 2/3 so long as Speights picks up his option – with Irving, Varejao, Thompson and Speights on board they’ll need a wing to either start or be a sixth man.  And the guy they might be able to overpay and get to come…is O.J. Mayo.  He’ll be pricing himself right out of Dallas, and maybe he shoves on Waiters’ minutes a bit, but let’s be honest. it’s Dion Waiters.  I’d take Mayo.  Maybe I’d play small a bit.  But unless somehow the Cavs can put up enough dollar signs to walk away with Josh Smith (and that could happen) then Mayo looks like the most likely option.

Detroit Pistons

Posts(2+1p+1t): Greg Monroe (1), Andre Drummond (1+2t), Charlie Villanueva (1p), Vyacheslav Kravtsov (1t)
Wings(3): Kyle Singler (2), Jonas Jerebko (1+1p), Khris Middleton (1+1t)
Guards(1+2t): Brandon Knight (1+1t), Rodney Stuckey (1t), Kim English (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 6 + 3 Team Option + 1 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Jose Calderon, Corey Maggette, Jason Maxiell, Will Bynum

2013 Cap Situation: $36M Cap Holds: Calderon 16, Maggette 16, Maxiell 10, Bynum 6; Total cap holds of $55M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Charlie Villanueva (1/$8.6M), Greg Monroe only other eligible candidate remaining.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #7 Lotto slot; Second Round: #38

onroe’s potential extension may be the biggest question for the Pistons this summer.  Do they max him out – or at least offer enough to wrap him up – or do they just wait for restricted free agency a year down the road?  The Monroe/Drummond pairing looks like one of the top young frontcourts going forward, so you’d think that the Pistons would want to make sure it stays together.  At the same time, Monroe’s shooting percentage has been dropping every year as he is responsible for more of the offense, and his turnovers are going up.  I don’t think that’s necessarily a trend that’s going to continue, but at the same time I’m not quite sure he’s a franchise guy.  If I were the Pistons and looking at the money available in the future, I’d be tempted to stick with his RFA year next summer and save the franchise extension for Drummond, whose numbers have been sickening – both the bad kind of sickening (FT%) and the good kind of sickening (basically everything else).  But their starting frontline is not the only thing the Pistons need to think about this offseason.  Stuckey has an $8.6M team option – the kind of thing you might decline except for the fact that $4M of it is guaranteed…so Stuckey comes back.  He’s worth $4.6M, especially on a team with tons of cap room.  Villanueva will without doubt pick up the final $8.6M player option on one of the worst current contracts in the NBA – but does Detroit turn around and amnesty him?  I don’t think so.  Not that they need him or even want him around, but with about $24M to spend, they’re not terribly likely to need that much more cap space, and of course the rule is never ever ever amnesty a player unless it either saves you luxury tax (not applicable) or you’re going to use the cap space.  You’re paying the player either way, so you may as well keep him as a trade asset if you can’t spend that cap space…and really, are there any big-name free agents going to be banging down the Detroit doors this offseason?  No.

The Pistons definitely need to do something about the wing, because the Singler/Jerebko combo with a ton of smallball (running Calderon/Knight/Stuckey about 92 minutes a game) isn’t really the best option in my opinion.  I can’t see them bringing Maggette back, at least not for any serious amount of money.  They do seem to like Calderon, so I think they bring him back and then focus on the wing in free agency.  Iggy would fit in great if he opts out of Denver, but he’s making enough money that he might not actually do so even though it could be good for him to get out of that mile-high wing-glut.  I would point out that Stuckey’s contract (once they pick it up) would make a very nice trading piece to land a wing.

In the draft, if their pick stays around the #7 slot, the Pistons might go big this year.  Update: They fall to #8 but it shouldn’t really affect the discussion. PG would seem to be little needed, and Burke will be long gone, so reaching for Carter-Williams would be silly.  The wing may not have any obvious immediate help – there are several intriguing foreign prospects (all of whom would be a reach at current projections) but outside of Shabazz Muhammad there aren’t any wings who would look to be ready to go.  And Shabazz is basically a taller version of Ben Gordon, who they recently overpaid and then unceremoniously shipped away.  Do they want that again?  There ought to be plenty of post prospects in the range, and a guy like Cody Zeller with his T-Rex arms but solid all-around game might look really nice at PF next to not one but two guys who can play center at a high level.  Zeller goes to the Pistons.  I feel it.

Indiana Pacers

Posts(3): Roy Hibbert (2+1p), Ian Mahinmi (3), Miles Plumlee (1+2t)
Wings(3+1t): Paul George (1), Danny Granger (1), Lance Stephenson (1t), Gerald Green (2)
Guards(2): George Hill (4), Orlando Johnson (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Team Option + 3 RFA

Major Free Agents: David West, D.J. Augustin, Sam Young, Tyler Hansbrough (RFA), Jeff Pendergraph (RFA), Ben Hansbrough (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $50M Cap Holds: West 13, T. Hansbrough 7.5, Augustin 4; Total cap holds of $35M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (James Posey)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #23; Second Round: #53

rom Danny Granger to Paul George – the transition took basically one year and one balky knee, and now at age 22 George is looking like their franchise player.  He gets the franchise extension this offseason.  Book it.  The big question then becomes: what to do with Danny Granger?  At $14M for one year, I think the Pacers hope Granger shows enough health to deal him in the offseason, but with a recent knee knifing there aren’t likely to be too many teams vying for his services at that price.  And let’s be honest, if he’s healthy around the trade deadline, the Pacers are going to want to keep him around for one last playoff run.  So I think Granger finishes out the contract a Pacer.

Indiana has quite a few personnel decisions to go through this summer.  They’ve got a team option on Lance Stephenson, and no matter how many times he shoves his girlfriend down the stairs and then slams her head into the floor he gave them too many minutes at too high of a value to let him out of his sub-$1M team option for next season.  They’ve also got three potential RFAs to worry about, but I think of the three, only Hansbrough gets a QO.  Tyler, that is.  Ben gets a pat on the back and a coupon book for Burger King because it showed up in Pritchard’s mailbox that morning.  But on top of that, there are some unrestricted free agents that play into the Pacers’ plans – David West, D.J. Augustin, and Sam Young.  West is obviously the heavy hitter here and there’s some scuttlebutt that he wants to come back, so I figure the Pacers find a way to sign him.  Augustin and Young are both useful backups, but the question probably has to be whether spending the money on those guys (they’ll be over the cap once they sign West and well over once they sign T. Hansbrough) is worth it when they have a chance to mix things up.  Young will come cheap enough, and he’s a great defender, but I kind of see the Pacers walking away from Augustin for another backup using a portion of the MLE.  Let’s say Eric Maynor (cut loose from Portland) and move on.

The Pacers do have one draft pick worth thinking about at #23, and I don’t think they’ve got enough weaknesses to target a position.  Perhaps they look big in case they can’t bring West back, but BPA regardless of position is really what’s called for here.  I’d kind of like to see them go after Lorenzo Brown…who, come to think of it, has a lot Eric Maynor in him.  So sure, I’ll just say that the Pacers draft Lorenzo Brown, sign Eric Maynor, and let the best Maynor win the backup PG minutes.  Why not?

Milwaukee Bucks

Posts(4+1t): Larry Sanders (1), John Henson (1+2t), Gustavo Ayon (1t), Drew Gooden (2), Ekpe Udoh (1)
Wings(2): Ersan Ilyasova (3+1t), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (2)
Guards(1+1p): Monta Ellis (1p), Ish Smith (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Monta Ellis (p), Samuel Dalembert, J.J. Redick, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Brandon Jennings (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $31M assuming Ellis opts out Cap Holds: Ellis 16, Redick 9, Dalembert 9, Jennings 8, Dunleavy 5; Total cap holds of $51M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Drew Gooden (2/$13M), Larry Sanders is only other remaining eligible candidate.

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #15; Second Round: #43

he $64M question for the Bucks this year is Monta Ellis’ $11M player option – as in can he get a 4/$64M contract? I don’t know that he can…but I bet he thinks he can.  Ellis opts out in my opinion, because I figure the guy loves three things: money, mopeds, and dumbass shots early in the shot clock.  Honestly, Milwaukee is better off without him.  The thing is, Brandon Jennings is going to be trying to hit the FA market, too.  I think the Bucks would be fools to bring back both of them and Jennings is the better player (because he can actually hit the three at a reasonable rate) – so they match whatever Brandon gets on the open market as an RFA and they let Ellis walk.  Maybe a sign-and-trade if they can get anything good out of Monta, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Honestly, the Bucks have a lot of work to do.  They were swept out of the playoffs (yes, by the Heat, so there’s a bit of an excuse) and their team was absolutely dominated by two pieces that should never be on the same team (Jennings/Ellis, natch).   Ilyasova got a big-ass contract last offseason and they need to lean on him a bit more, but let’s look at the glaring faults.  First, there is absolutely NO OFFENSE in the post.  Sanders, Henson, Udoh, and a FA Dalembert barely combined to score more than Monta Ellis on the season.  Lots of defense in the post, but no go-to offense.  That’s something that the Bucks need to address.  The Bucks have the cap space to spend, and they ought to take a big run at Paul Millsap to remedy that.  Dalembert and probably Udoh are expendable if they grab a guy like Millsap.  Udoh’s salary is not insignificant (because he was drafted too high) but a package of Udoh and Mbah a Moute might be able to lure some offense out of a team in need of D.  Would the Kings, in need of a massive facelift, bite on a Udoh/Mbah a Moute for Marcus Thornton trade?  That would start to address the second problem with the Bucks, which is that their wing is a bit weak.  Ilyasova, sure.  But beyond that, they’ve got unrestricted FAs Dunleavy and Redick, and a whole bunch of two-guard lineups (culprits obvious and as such unnamed).  The Bucks were 28th in FG% last year and could use some efficient shooting at the wing (as well as the post, see above) to rectify that.  They can bring Redick back, maybe they can chase after Kevin Martin, but a trade of some of their superfluous post defense would look like the best option.

No discussion of the Bucks would be complete without at least a suggestion that they amnesty Drew Gooden.  I hate Drew Gooden’s contract, and I hated it before it was signed.  (Prescience!)  But despite my irrational hatred directed toward the contract of a guy who was really supposed to be a better player than college teammate Nick Collison, I just can’t see an amnesty making a bunch of sense this year.  Sure, if Milwaukee finds a way to land a big free agent then by all means clear space at the expense of Drew.  But in reality, it’s probably more of a question for next offseason, with Gooden riding the pine again this year and taking up a lot more cap space than conceptual space on the roster.

Oh, and the Bucks get a draft pick this year, too.  As the worst Eastern Conference playoff team, it’s #15 – just outside of the lottery.  Woot.  All’s I can say is that they’d better take a Eurowing.  Karasev.  Adetokoubo.  Saric.  One of the Glens.  (Amazingly, this quote is apparently not on the internet.  Any of the internet, which is big.  Google has failed me.  Take me upstairs and feed me.)

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Southeast Division

Part two is the Southeast division.  I always do the Southeast division second, and if you don’t like it, don’t read it, jerkwad!

Atlanta Hawks

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(1+1t): Al Horford (3), Mike Scott (1t)
Wings(1+1t): Lou Williams (2), Deshawn Stevenson (2t)
Guards(1): John Jenkins (1+2t)

Total players under contract next year: 3 + 2 Team Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Josh Smith, Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, Kyle Korver, Johan Petro, Dahntay Jones, Anthony Tolliver, Jeff Teague (RFA), Ivan Johnson (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $22M Cap Holds: Smith 16, Harris 13, Korver 9.5, Teague 6; Total cap holds of $71M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates (Al Horford is only legal candidate remaining)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #17, #18; Second round: #47, #50

ight be this year that the Hawks finally blow up the clown after going down 4-2 to the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs.  The reason that it’s time to start over is that the team is empty.  Al Horford is the only player really worth keeping around who is under contract, and with about $38M worth of cap space, they can go out and build a new squad.  Hey, it’s not like they ever really liked Josh Smith anyway, from the frequency that he was on the trading block.  I’m pretty sure they’ll give Teague his QO (because let’s be honest, Chris Paul is not hopping a train to Atlanta), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put in an offer on the hometown Dwight Howard.  I don’t think a rebuild case like Atlanta can actually get Dwight Howard, but the offer ought to be there.  The question, then, is who can they get?  Well, between Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap, I’d guess that at least one of the three will end up being a Hawk next year.  Bynum almost seems to be a perfect match with both Atlanta and Andrew looking for a fresh start.  On top of Teague and a frontline post player, the Hawks will need to make a decent splash at the wing, too, and I’d think they’d like more of a SF since Lou Williams can pretty much handle the SG.  They don’t have much in the way of assets outside of Horford, whom I assume they’ll keep, but they could certainly use their cap room to make an offer to an RFA (perhaps Gerald Henderson could be pried away) or even to eat a contract and send a draft pick in return (though I’m not sure who is unloading a decent SF for cap space these days).  More than likely they’ll find a way to sign-and-trade Josh Smith – sending him to Indiana for one year of a risky Granger and a pick wouldn’t be the worst move they could make.  Teague/Granger/Horford/Bynum looks like a high-risk/high-reward core.

The Hawks have back-to-back picks at #17/#18, and given that they won’t really know what they can do in free agency, I think they have to grab a big man with one of the picks.  Steven Adams may take some time, but it’s looking like he’ll be available in the late teens and he’s got the long-term upside to be the right guy, but he’s not likely to help this season.  The question is whether the Hawks are confident in attracting at least one frontline post in free agency.  If so, Adams would seem to be on the board, if not…well if Mason Plumlee is still available he’d be a reasonable target and ready to step in right away, though I don’t love his ceiling.  With their other pick, a Euro-wing would seem to fit both the slot and the need – I’m going to say Dario Saric, because I suspect that both Karasev and Adetokoubo are going to be picked late lottery on their upside.

Charlotte Bobcats

Posts(3): Bismack Biyombo (1+1t), Brendan Haywood (2+1t), Tyrus Thomas (2)
Wings(2+1t): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (1+2t), Jeff Taylor (1+1t), Jeff Adrien (1t)
Guards(2+1p): Kemba Walker (1+1t), Ramon Sessions (1), Ben Gordon (1p)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Desagana Diop, Josh McRoberts, Gerald Henderson (RFA), B.J. Mullens (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $44M because no way Gordon opts out Cap Holds: Henderson 8, Mullens 6, McRoberts 4; Total cap holds of $32M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Tyrus Thomas (2/$18M, no other legal candidates remaining)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #2 Lotto slot

or the fifth time in franchise history, the Bobcats will have a top-5 pick this year.  They’re still looking for that difference-maker, though, and if the strength of this year’s class is properly assessed ahead of time, they still will be.  I don’t think it’s possible to say that the squad is enviably constructed.  Their best overall player is the unspectacular Kemba Walker, followed by defensive role players in Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo.  But for all that, they’ll be paying $44M next year for just 7 players, making a big free agent splash unlikely not only due to the fact that they are the Charlotte Bobcats, but also because they don’t really have the dough.  In principle they could amnesty Tyrus Thomas, but I’m just not confident that their financial model includes paying a guy $9M for each of two years to go away.  The other principle behind the amnesty is that if you don’t actually sign somebody with the cap space you create, you shouldn’t have done it.  So unless you can point to a free agent that’s dying to go to Charlotte amnesty seems like a poor plan. 

That would suggest that they’re probably going to have to spend their money ensuring that potential RFAs Gerald Henderson and B.J. Mullens don’t get away and then hope that they can get a good pick and start to turn it around.  I’m going to assume that they’re going to be looking for offense in the face of not really having a go-to scorer outside of the overpaid and underwanted Ben Gordon.  As a preliminary guess, I’d say that if Ben McLemore is on the board, he goes to Charlotte, and if not Anthony Bennett would seem to be the favorite in my eye.  Another scorer who seems unlikely to crack the top-5 at this point is Shabazz Muhammad, but if anybody is going to look for a straight scorer and figure it all out later, the Bobcats are the ones, so I’d guess that he’s in the mix here depending on how the draft shakes out.  Update: The Bobcats fell to #4, but there’s a decent chance all three of the guys I mentioned here are on the board at #4 (McLemore probably the least decent). Some are calling Oladipo for the Bobcats right now, but it would seem to be a mistake to put him next to another great wing defender in MKG and then hope that the team can score somehow.  Porter, if available, would have to displace MKG to the 2 (maybe not a great idea) and Burke would displace the recently-drafted Walker, so I still think it will be a scorer – Bennett, Len, or even the “reach” in Muhammad.

Miami Heat

Posts(4): Chris Bosh (1+2p), Udonis Haslem (1+1p), Joel Anthony (1+1p), Jarvis Varnado (1)
Wings(3+3p): Lebron James (1+2p), Ray Allen (1p), Shane Battier (1), Mike Miller (1+1p), James Jones (1p), Rashard Lewis (1p)
Guards(2+1t): Dwyane Wade (1+2p), Mario Chalmers (1t), Norris Cole (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 9 + 1 Team Option + 3 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Ray Allen (p), James Jones (p), Rashard Lewis (p), Chris Andersen

2013 Cap Situation: $86M Cap Holds: Total cap holds of $4M if Jones opts out.  Only tMLE exception available.

Amnesty Candidates: Mike Miller (2$/12.8M) – James, Bosh, Wade, Haslem, and Anthony are also legal candidates

2013 Draft Picks: None

he Miami Heat have not yet won the NBA championship.  But with a wide-open East and the Russell Westbrook injury stealing OKC’s thunder, it’s probably a good bet that they will before June is out.  And as far as next year goes, I don’t see any real roadblocks to the Heat going with almost exactly the same squad.  They have a team option on Chalmers that is a gimme to pick up, Ray Allen’s inexpensive player option that he won’t walk away from because he wants to win (another) championship, and two incredibly cheap player options (James Jones and Rashard Lewis) that are of precisely no consequence at all. Literally the only question mark is free agent Chris Andersen, who has played very well for them down the stretch.  Andersen is likely to beat out his minimum-salary contract of this year, but the Heat can offer him the taxpayer MLE (a nearly $3.2M value), and while he might be able to chase more money elsewhere, the opportunity is pretty hard to beat. After nothing is said and done, I just don’t think the Heat will look much different next year – in fact they may go into the season not looking any different at all.

Orlando Magic

Posts(3+2t): Nikola Vucevic (1+1t), Glen Davis (2), Andrew Nicholson (1+2t), Al Harrington (2t), Kyle O’Quinn (2t)
Wings(4+1t): Arron Afflalo (2+1p), Tobias Harris (1+1t), Mo Harkless (1+2t), Doron Lamb (1+1t), Hedo Turkoglu (1t)
Guards(1+1t): Jameer Nelson (1+1t), E’Twaun Moore (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 4 Team Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Beno Udrih, DeQuan Jones (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $46M if they dump Turkoglu and Harrington Cap Holds: Udrih 11; Total cap holds of $14M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Gilbert Arenas)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #1 Lotto slot; Second round: #51

iracles will happen, and this year’s miracle is that there was a team with a worse record than the Bobcats.  Welcome to your 2012-2013 Dwight-Howard-free Orlando Magic.  Perhaps the biggest tragedy in the tragic kingdom is that two of the Magic’s highest-paid players were completely useless this year.  Hedo Turkoglu and Al Harrington played just north of 300 minutes between them and both have large contracts that are exactly 50% guaranteed.  For the value that Orlando is getting out of them, both guys should be 100% cut, but it’s going to cost $9.5M this year and $3.8M next year to do it.  Even then, the Magic aren’t going to have a ton of cap room – on the order of $14M.  Given their relative strength and youth at the wing (despite Afflalo’s major regression this year) and the presence of Jameer Nelson and a team option on E’Twaun Moore, the Magic are liable to focus on the post.  I would guess that they let Beno Udrih go and use their $14M to chase after a big name like Al Jefferson in free agency.

In the draft, the Magic are guaranteed a top-4 pick, and while the world loves them some Ben McLemore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Magic had two guys on their wishlist: Nerlens Noel, who would provide the defense in the post that the Magic are in need of (25th in the league in blocked shots), and Trey Burke, who would be the heir apparent to Nelson, who has one year and a team option left on his contract.  Porter and Oladipo seem to make little sense given the wing depth that Orlando already has, presumably leaving only Anthony Bennett as a primary option if both Noel and Burke are off the board.  Update: The Magic get the #2 pick.  If Cleveland doesn’t take Noel, then I gotta figure that Orlando will.  Otherwise, they’re going to give a long hard look at Burke – and if they get scared off of him to take McLemore, Burke could potentially fall to #7, which would just serve to confirm their suspicions, even if that serve turns out to be a foot-fault.

Washington Wizards

Posts(3+1p): Nene Hilario (3), Emeka Okafor (1p), Kevin Seraphin (1), Trevor Booker (1)
Wings(3+1p): Bradley Beal (1+2t), Jan Vesely (1+1t), Trevor Ariza (1p), Chris Singleton (1+1t)
Guards(1): John Wall (1)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 2 Player Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Martell Webster, Leandro Barbosa, Garrett Temple (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $59M Cap Holds: Total cap holds of $10M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Andray Blatche)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #8 Lotto slot; Second round: #37, #54

ully $22M of the Wizards’ projected salary for next season is tied up in two guys who have player options and are virtual locks to look at the dollar signs on the paperwork and say, “Yes, please!”  I don’t really see Ariza turning down $7.7M, and I know Emeka won’t turn down $14.5M.  With nine players coming back and the team sitting right on the edge of the salary cap, the Wizards may be looking first and foremost for health next year.  Wall missed 33 games, Nene missed 21, Beal missed 26, Ariza missed 26, Booker missed 34…to me that looks like 5 of their top 6 players missed at least 21 games a pop.  Include Okafor (only missed 2 games) and their top 6 missed 152 games this year – that means that in an average game they were missing 1.9 guys from the short part of their rotation.  That’s every game, all season.  So I know they don’t have a lot of cap room to make a ton of moves, and I think they have an argument for patience, so maybe they don’t make a lot of moves.  They definitely need another PG to back up Wall, and unless they suddenly decide that Vesely and Singleton have earned the backup wing minutes (less than 1500 minutes between them despite the injuries this year, so I doubt it) they might be well served to look around for a wing as well.  They do have four returning rotation players in the post (Nene, Okafor, Booker, Seraphin) and can basically turn a blind eye to the paint for the time being.

But before they turn to their backup PG/wing needs, they probably have to think pretty hard about whether or not they ought to offer Wall an extension this summer.  It’s that time!  And I’m not really sure that Wall has earned that extension.  They can still make him an RFA next offseason, and the books clear up pretty nicely, so I’m going to guess that Wall does NOT get that summer extension…which would make him the first (non-injured – Oden doesn’t count) #1 overall pick to not sign a big (max?) extension to his rookie contract since 2001 top pick Kwame Brown…also a Wizard.  Did I see that right?  The Wizards get two #1 overall picks in a decade, and neither one is fully worthy of an extension?  Yeesh.  Anyway, I think this makes the backup PG a position of priority, even though they really only have the MLE to get it done.  They can try to chase after Mo Williams or Devin Harris, to see if their stock has fallen enough to lure them into a backup job with the MLE, but barring that they might as well spend some of that money bringing Martell Webster back and target a cheaper vet like Nolan Smith.

The Wizards’ lotto slot this year (#8) is right in that sweet spot where you figure they won’t move up, but they could, and if they do it’s a big jump.  They’ll hope to hit (hey, they could get the #1 overall pick in yet ANOTHER draft where he doesn’t earn the extension!) but more than likely they’ll be picking in the late middle of the lottery.  Despite their need for a backup, drafting a PG like Michael Carter-Williams in the lottery is probably the wrong message to send to Wall, and their post is full enough that the wing is where they ought to take a gander.  Otto Porter should be gone, but Shabazz Muhammad will likely land around that #8 spot, and while he’s a bit duplicative of Beal, he can play bench minutes and ought to be long enough to be a second option at SF behind Ariza, and if they missed the scoring Jordan Crawford after the salary-dump trade this year, ‘Bazz will bring that back.  I’m basically convincing myself as I type this.  Update: And the Wizards are the big winners this year – not for hitting the #1 pick, but for jumping five teams and getting the #3 pick.  Now Porter looks like he will be there, and that would seem to be the call they’ll make (this said a few hours after the lotto results).  Len or Bennett could hop in here if they want to start rebuilding the post, but the top guy you can be confident they won’t take is Trey Burke.

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Atlantic Division

I have now written five NBA Summer Previews, and this will be my sixth.  Each year I point out, in an ever more self-deprecating fashion, that despite the considerable time that goes into my analysis it’s usually both unsound and non-prescient. That’s OK, though, because how else can I while away the time as I watch the NBA playoffs?  If you’ve stumbled upon this, don’t think of it as a guidebook for league executives everywhere, look at it as one fan’s diversion.

As always, I write these prior to the NBA Draft Lottery (this year to occur on May 21st), so I can’t perfectly predict how teams in the top part of the lottery might spend their picks.  This year the pre-lottery nature of the analysis is probably less important than ever, because the draft is pretty terribly weak.  Even the #1 pick isn’t guaranteed to start next year.  For the financials, I’m going to assume a slightly higher salary cap and luxury tax than last year, bumping them to $60M and $73M, respectively.  These values won’t be set in stone until July, so I’ve got to make a guess anyway.

As always I’ll be using my alternative positional definitions. Since there really is a large amount of overlap between the PF and C positions, I will group these together as “posts”. Similarly, the traditional SF and SG positions will be lumped together as “wings”. PGs and some SGs (small SGs that can’t really qualify as wings, e.g. Jason Terry) will be classified as “guards”, though I will take into account the fact that some guards aren’t primary ballhandlers.

The salary information that I relied on to compose this was laboriously compiled by ShamSports, for which we thank them profusely.  Once again I’m providing the link to Sham even though nobody reads this, just to be nice and give credit where credit is due.

Boston Celtics

Players under contract (years, t = team option/unguaranteed, p = player option):

Posts(4+2t): Kevin Garnett (1+1t), Brandon Bass (2), Jared Sullinger (1+2t), Fab Melo (1+2t), Shavlik Randolph (1t), D.J. White (1t)
Wings(3+2t): Paul Pierce (1t), Jeff Green (2+1p), Courtney Lee (3), Jordan Crawford (1), Terrence Williams (1t)
Guards(3): Rajon Rondo (2), Jason Terry (2), Avery Bradley (1)

Total players under contract next year: 10 + 4 Team Option

Major Free Agents: Chris Wilcox

2013 Cap Situation: $74M (assuming they don’t let Pierce go); Cap Holds: Chris Wilcox 0.8, and a ton of bookkeeping; Total cap holds of $22M.  Both tMLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: No reasonable candidates (Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley only remaining legal candidates)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #16

oo many times in these previews I have been guilty of spreading greatly exaggerated rumors of a franchise’s demise (see the Dallas Mavericks, almost every season).  So I’m a bit hesitant to say this, but I don’t think the future is too terribly bright for the Celtics.  Garnett is going to be 37 years old and there doesn’t appear to be a proper heir-apparent in the post on the horizon.  I don’t imagine anybody thought that Jared Sullinger was ever going to fill that role (his ceiling is solid, not superstar) and on top of that he’s recovering from lumbar disc surgery.  (Remember that back problem that caused him to drop in the draft that his agent claimed was “tight hamstrings”?  Yup.)  And to add to the injury woes, don’t forget about Rajon Rondo’s torn ACL.  Still, Boston doesn’t rebuild, they reload (the Garnett/Allen offseason as the standout data point).  So I can’t see the Celtics declining Paul Pierce’s team option – especially when $5M of his $15M total is guaranteed anyway.  So, on the face of it, the Celtics are going to bring back a team that is one year older and in a few cases recovering from injury, they’re going to be well over the cap, and things don’t look too rosy.  Even if you look at the trade market, age and injury sully all their best candidates except perhaps Avery Bradley, who won’t fetch a king’s ransom and is their only reliable PG for next year anyhow.  So my best guess is that the Celtics will mostly stand pat (as it will be hard for them to engineer any breathtaking moves) and will spend their taxpayer MLE on a steady PG who can carry them over until Rondo is healthy – Nolan Smith might be a great target in the hopes that he develops into something special, but a vet like Beno Udrih would also seem to fit into the price range.

Then again, the sudden buzz after the Celtics got bumped from the playoffs has Garnett potentially retiring, which wasn’t really on my radar, but I suppose he doesn’t really need that $23M dollars.  That leaves a very large pull-the-plug scenario with KG out and the Pierce option no longer appearing to be an obvious pick-up.  Pierce would go on the trade market and if they can’t find a suitable taker then presumably they’d  waive him.  Suddenly the Celtics (no KG, no Pierce, injured Rondo) would be contenders for the Andrew Wiggins Sweepstakes.  The trade scenario I kind of like for Pierce is to the Warriors in exchange for the dead-weight contract of Andris Biedrins and three years of Harrison Barnes.  From the Celtics’ side, you could either pay Pierce $5M to go away, or pay a total of $19M for three years of the former #1 overall prospect from his class with an RFA at the end of it and some bench rot.  Three years down the road you’re looking at a team that is anchored by Barnes, a lottery sophomore from a stacked draft class, and hopefully an extended Rondo.  That’s a rebuild, not a reload, but it’s not a bad plan.  The Warriors…well, could they really turn down Curry-Pierce-Lee-Bogut in a post-Kobe landscape next year?  That lineup is basically one Russell Westbrook injury away from taking on the Heat – they’re making a solid playoff push as it is and Pierce is way better than Barnes right now.  DO IT!

In the draft the Celtics will probably have the opportunity to select a defensive post, something that outside of Garnett, they don’t really have right now.  If Rudy Gobert is available the Celtics probably have a tough time not taking a chance on his immense wingspan, but right now the odds look decent that he’ll be off the board in the late lottery.  Still, Gorgui Dieng and Jeff Withey will both be there, and Withey’s shot blocking might really play well in Boston even if the projections say he’ll be a bit of a reach.

Brooklyn Nets

Posts(5): Brook Lopez (2+1p), Kris Humprhies (1), Reggie Evans (2), Mirza Teletovic (2), Tornike Shengelia (1)
Wings(2): Joe Johnson (3), Gerald Wallace (3)
Guards(3+1p): Deron Williams (3+1p), MarShon Brooks (1+1t), Tyshawn Taylor (1), C.J. Watson (1p)

Total players under contract next year: 10 +1 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Andray Blatche, Keith Bogans, Jerry Stackhouse, C.J. Watson (p)

2013 Cap Situation: $86M Cap Holds: Total cap holds of $4M.  Only tMLE available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Travis Outlaw)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #22

erely a year after doing such a stellar job in designing the new Brooklyn “color palette”, it appears that Jay-Z is going to be divesting himself of his ownership shares in the team.  Presumably Jay-Z has 99 problems, but a Blatche ain’t one.  For the Nets, on the other hand, Andray Blatche is a bit of a conundrum.  He has always been a problematic player and a locker-room distraction, but this year, playing on a minimum contract after being waived by the Wizards, he put up his most efficient season ever as an effective rebounder, scorer, and defender off the bench.  So now what?  The Nets can’t offer more than the taxpayer MLE (which might not be enough) and there’s not a whole lot of diddling around that can change that.  As far as flexibility goes, the Nets are nearly full up with contracts that they can’t (Johnson/Humphries/Wallace) or won’t (Williams/Lopez) trade.  I think they’d be pretty happy if they can sign Blatche for the tMLE, otherwise they’d better believe in the Teletovic/Shengelia tandem (who played less than 600 minutes combined on the season) or another cheap free agent who can score (and I don’t really see one) for their bench depth in the post.

They’re also a bit thin at the wing, and while bringing back Bogans would help they might like to address that in the draft.  It’s a cliché to suggest that Prokhorov will draft a Russian player, but Sergey Karasev is (currently) in the Nets’ draft range at #22.  I have a guess that Karasev will rise out of range, however, though a Dario Saric may be in reach.  Perhaps they might be just as well served by a smaller wing, and one who looks to be available would be Archie Goodwin, whose PG skills weren’t quite on display during his freshman year in Kentucky, but with Deron around they don’t really have to be.  He’s got a nice drive, give him some time to work on his shot, and he might be a nice draft find for a capped-out team.

New York Knicks

Posts(3): Amare Stoudemire (1+1p), Tyson Chandler (2), Marcus Camby (1+1t)
Wings(2+1p+1t): Carmelo Anthony (1+1p), Steve Novak (3), J.R. Smith (1p), James White (1t)
Guards(3): Raymond Felton (2+1p), Jason Kidd (2), Iman Shumpert (1+1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 2 RFA

Major Free Agents: Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith (p), Chris Copeland (RFA), Pablo Prigioni (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $75M Cap Holds: J.R. Smith 3.5; Total cap holds of $11M.  Only tMLE exception available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Chauncey Billups)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #24

our million dollars.  That is my estimate of the gap between J.R. Smith’s player option (<$3M) and his value on the open market in a year when he set career highs in almost every counting stat.  I can’t imagine that the Knicks’ sixth man doesn’t opt out of that contract, and you’d have to figure that the Knicks, who are going to be bringing back the core of their playoff squad, will do everything in their power to re-sign him, whatever his contract demands are.  Since they have Early Bird rights, they Knicks can offer 104.5% over the average salary – so in principle a bit over the MLE, depending on how average salaries shake out relative to the MLE.  And they’ll have to hope that it’s enough to retain him, because there are a lot of teams with cap space.  If they can get J.R. back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shumpert dangled for whatever cookie they can get.  Chris Copeland and Pablo Prigioni both played really well this year, so their QOs (just a tad under $1M each) would seem to be a given, and they would probably start to eat up Shumpert’s declining minutes anyway.

It’s at the post where the Knicks would probably have to be a bit nervous.  Chandler is a given, but Amare is coming off of knee surgery and Camby looks done.  They’ll want to retain or replace FA Kenyon Martin, and they’ve got either the MLE or a draft pick to get it done.  But with a big cap number already and the money they’ll need to (hopefully) spend on Smith, the draft might be a better option to find another defensive big than free agency, where a retread might be the best they can hope for.  Jeff Withey and perhaps Gorgui Dieng (yeah, the same guys I mentioned for Boston) are two guys who could possibly fit the bill for the Knicks at #24 (though I figure Dieng might be gone already) because as upper-classmen they’ll be ready to step in and contribute immediately.

Philadelphia 76ers

Posts(4+1p): Thaddeus Young (2+1p), Spencer Hawes (1), Lavoy Allen (1), Arnett Moultrie (1+2t), Kwame Brown (1p)
Wings(2+1t): Evan Turner (1), Jason Richardson (1+1p), Justin Holiday (1t)
Guards(1): Jrue Holiday (4)

Total players under contract next year: 7 + 1 Team Option + 1 Player Option + 1 RFA

Major Free Agents: Andrew Bynum, Nick Young, Dorell Wright, Charles Jenkins (RFA)

2013 Cap Situation: $47M Cap Holds: Bynum 18, Young 8, Wright 6; Total cap holds of $37M.  Both MLE and Bi-Annual exceptions available.

Amnesty Candidates: Already used (Elton Brand)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #11 Lotto Slot; Second round: #35, #42

rue quote, from CBS Philadelphia on August 10, 2012: “Wow, just, wow…the Sixers [are] getting more for Andre Iguodala than most anyone expected…”  Somehow, I think the expectation was for more than zero minutes of Andrew Bynum, who went from second-best center in the league to complete pariah over the course of a single season where it just didn’t look like he tried very hard to get healthy.  The folks in Philly who were crowing over that trade in August are eating that crow now, because those zero minutes for now-free-agent Bynum only cost: Iguodala, Nicola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a protected first-round pick, and eating the contract of Jason Richardson.  They paid Bynum $17M to play his XBox, and Richardson $18M over the next three years to suck on the bench.  I will guarantee you this: The Sixers will not make a worse move this offseason than that.  In fact, after this year I just can’t imagine Philly even going after Bynum at all.  Somebody will offer the guy $15M, but I don’t think there are enough XXXL Santa suits in Philly to bring the Bynum-booing down to reasonable levels.  But as much as you’ve got to feel for Bynum, you have to feel for Spencer Hawes even more. With one more year on his contract, turncoat Hawes was in perfect position to join his beloved hometown Seattle Supersonics expansion team in 2014 – before Chris Hansen apparently torpedoed the possibility of an expansion team in order to chase after a team the NBA relocation committee unanimously recommended against moving.  Hell, Hansen is basically threatening to sue the league on top of that, so right now it looks like Seattle is going to be getting that expansion team in the fall of two thousand and never.  Sorry, Spencer!  (And by “sorry” I mean “bite me”.)

So, anyway, after all the hating on the Philly front office, potential Seattle ownership groups, and Hawes, I haven’t actually predicted anything aside from Bynum being shown the door.  Well, on top of a shaky post (in terms of quality, not quantity), the Sixers have zero depth at guard beyond Holiday (Jrue) and not a lot of quality at the wing behind Evan Turner.  And they’ve got about $13M to spend to fix that.  I’d say they work to retain Dorell Wright and let Nick Young walk. Justin Holiday’s team option is quite cheap, so I figure they pick that up as well as make the QO to Charles Jenkins and retain him to back up Jrue.

With the draft not terribly strong, the two second round picks that the Sixers hold don’t seem likely to yield any immediate help (though I am continually shocked that Tim Hardaway Jr. seems to project to the second round, and I figure he could help just about anybody at the wing).  I’ll assume that the Sixers don’t hit the lottery (Update: they don’t), and the question then is: who will be available at #11?  The name I’m really interested in here for the Sixers is Alex Len.  Len probably wasn’t going to drop to #11 until he had surgery to stabilize a stress fracture on his ankle.  It sounds like he’ll miss half the season and definitely won’t be able to work out for teams, but Len has the size and the skill to be a pretty solid center in the league, and with the sheer number of guys they have to fill the post, the Sixers can afford to wait on him.  It won’t go over well at the time, but by the opening of the 2014 season, the Philly fans will be happy to let go of Hawes and give his spot to Len.  Update: Then again, Len’s stock has yet appeared to fall.  Maybe I meant “Kelly O-Len-yk”, who has way more Spencer Hawes in him than anybody should like.

Toronto Raptors

Posts(4+1p): Jonas Valanciunas (1+2t), Andrea Bargnani (1+1p), Amir Johnson (1+1t), Quincy Acy (1+1t), Aaron Gray (1p)
Wings(4+1p): Rudy Gay (1+1p), DeMar DeRozan (4), Terrence Ross (1+2t), Landry Fields (2), Linas Kleiza (1p)
Guards(2t): Kyle Lowry (1t), John Lucas III (1t)

Total players under contract next year: 8 + 2 Team Option + 2 Player Option

Major Free Agents: Aaron Gray (p), Sebastian Telfair, Mickael Pietrus

2013 Cap Situation: $69M (assuming Gray opts out and they don’t bring Lucas back) Cap Holds: Gray 3, Telfair 2; Total cap holds of $9M.  MLE exception available.  Bi-Annual exception potentially available if amnesty is used.

Amnesty Candidates: Linas Kleiza ($4.6M), after he picks up his player option (Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson only other remaining legal candidates)

2013 Draft Picks: First round: #12 Lotto Slot only top-3 protected

y guess is that the Raptors are not worried about depth at the wing next year.  They’ve got Gay, they’ve got DeRozan, they seem to like Ross, and they’re paying Landry Fields ridiculous amounts of money for having a nice rookie season in New York.  The thing is, they might be paying Linas Kleiza – considering that he didn’t manage 400 minutes this year, there’s a decent chance that Kleiza picks up his $4.6M option.  At that point, I think the Raptors would have to think very hard about amnesty for Kleiza.  The Raptors are pushing the tax as it is (and yes, that Lowry team option at $6.2M is an easy pick-up considering they not only have no PGs under contract but traded away Calderon to give the reins to Kyle) and with their wing glut they might be convinced to waive Kleiza to be able to use the MLE without going over the tax – unless they can miraculously find a trade taker.  But I think the biggest order of business for the Raptors this offseason is to search around and see if they can’t find somebody who loves Andrea Bargnani.  Bargnani, who was the booby prize in the 2006 NBA draft, has put together marginal season after marginal season and has missed 43% of his games over the past three years (>50% in each of the last two seasons) to various maladies.  Toronto owes him $22M over the next two seasons, and I imagine they’re sick of paying it.  The real question is whether they can find somebody else willing to bite that bullet.  It probably takes a team in the doldrums to be desperate enough to throw Bargs into the mix…so why not Charlotte?  The Bobcats are going nowhere and they’re not going to be lucky enough to see Ben Gordon opt out of $13.2M this year.  They could save the capped-out Raptors about $9M total (over two years) and get a former #1 overall pick in the bargain(gnani)!  How does either team say no?  OK, I guess the Raptors say no because it would leave them pretty damn weak in the post and with Gay on board they’re going to be looking to compete (they did win 18 of their last 36 games this year, which is easily a playoff pace in the East).  So they’d have to shore up their post at the same time…how about Gordon and Biyombo for Bargs and Ross? (They like Terrence, but he’s a bit superfluous with Gordon coming back as Gay/DeRozan already have the starting wing  positions locked up.)  Hey, maybe I should be a GM!

The Raptors are very unlikely to have a single draft pick this year – their #12 pick went to the Thunder in the James Harden trade (gee, too bad they don’t have James Harden!) and they won’t get to keep it unless it ends up top-3.  You know, it would be kind of fitting for the Raps to hit the lottery again in what will probably end up being the weakest draft since the 2006 Bargnani windfall.  But they won’t.  Update: Bold Prediction Is Bold!  And correct.  No pick for the Raptors.

 

NBA 2013 Summer Preview – Free Agent List

I did this last year, I found it useful, and I’m doing it again.

I’m going to split players into my traditional Guard/Wing/Post positions and try to list them in approximate salary brackets based on what I think they will/would command on the FA market.  Players in blue are definite unrestricted free agents (UFAs).  Players in green are likely to be UFAs, either through a declined option or by not being tended a qualifying offer.  Players in yellow are either likely to be restricted free agents or have an option that seems to me to be a close call.  Players in red are unlikely to be FAs due to an option I believe will be picked up.

Legend: (TO = team option, PO = player option, RFA = may be tendered a qualifying offer and become a restricted free agent.)  However, when I say “team option” that technically means “unguaranteed money” in almost every case.  In some cases none of the contract is guaranteed while in other cases some of it is.  It does happen from time to time that a star player has $10M guaranteed on a $15M contract – in such cases where makes no sense for the team not to bring the player back, I have omitted the player from this list entirely.

Note that there is a nearly endless pool of completely replaceable “talent” at the minimum, so if I don’t even know who the guy is, I’m not going to bother to list him.

Guard, $10M+

Chris Paul

Monta Ellis (PO)

Brandon Jennings (RFA)

Tyreke Evans (RFA)

Guard, $6-10M

Jose Calderon

Devin Harris

Maurice Williams

Randy Foye

Jarrett Jack

Jeff Teague (RFA)

Darren Collison (RFA)

Kyle Lowry (TO)

Rodney Stuckey (TO)

Ben Gordon (PO)

Guard, $3-Full-MLE level

Beno Udrih

Leandro Barbosa

Daniel Gibson

Nate Robinson

D.J. Augustin

Earl Watson

Jamaal Tinsley

Jerryd Bayless (PO)

Chris Duhon (TO)

Shannon Brown (TO)

Eric Maynor (RFA)

Rodrigue Beaubois (RFA)

Toney Douglas (RFA)

Gary Neal (RFA)

Mario Chalmers (TO)

Guard, $min-3M

Derek Fisher

Elliot Williams

Nolan Smith

Will Bynum

Marco Belinelli

Sebastian Telfair

Keith Bogans

Royal Ivey

A.J. Price

Shaun Livingston

Mike James

Roger Mason

Chris Quinn (TO)

Diante Garrett (RFA)

C.J. Watson (PO)

Patty Mills (PO)

Brian Roberts (TO)

Aaron Brooks (TO)

Kim English (TO)

John Lucas III (TO)

C.J. Miles (TO)

Darius Morris (RFA)

Ben Hansbrough (RFA)

Pablo Prigioni (RFA)

Charles Jenkins (RFA)

E’Twaun Moore (TO)

Patrick Beverley (TO)

…And Others

Wing, $10M+

Manu Ginobili

Josh Smith

Andre Iguodala (PO)

Andrei Kirilenko (PO)

Paul Pierce (TO)

Wing, $6-10M

Kevin Martin

Corey Maggette

J.J. Redick

Stephen Jackson

O.J. Mayo (PO)

Shawn Marion (PO)

Marvin Williams (PO)

Metta World Peace (PO)

Gerald Henderson (RFA)

Trevor Ariza (PO)

Wing, $3-Full-MLE level

Nick Young

Dorell Wright

Kyle Korver

Luke Walton

Ronnie Brewer

Corey Brewer

Chase Budinger

Martell Webster

Mike Dunleavy Jr.

Anthony Morrow

Tony Allen

Al-Farouq Aminu

Earl Clark

Wesley Johnson

J.R. Smith (PO)

Francisco Garcia (TO)

James Johnson (RFA)

Brandon Rush (PO)

Hedo Turkoglu (TO)

Richard Hamilton (TO)

Carlos Delfino (TO)

Austin Daye (RFA)

Wayne Ellington (RFA)

Devin Ebanks (RFA

Jodie Meeks (TO)

Linas Kleiza (PO)

Ray Allen (PO)

Wing, $min-3M

Luke Babbitt

DeMarre Carroll

Mickael Pietrus

Dahntay Jones

Jerry Stackhouse

Damien Wilkins

Reggie Williams

Daequan Cook

Sam Young

Marquis Daniels

Xavier Henry

Louis Amundsen

Matt Barnes

Kent Bazemore (TO)

P.J. Tucker (TO)

Omri Casspi (RFA)

Julyan Stone (RFA)

Grant Hill (TO)

Kevin Murphy (TO)

Sasha Pavlovic (TO)

DeAndre Liggins (TO)

Quincy Miller (TO)

Darius Miller (TO)

Deshawn Stevenson (TO)

Jeff Adrien (TO)

James Anderson (TO)

Terrence Williams (TO)

James White (TO)

Justin Holiday (TO)

Mickael Gelabale (TO)

James Jones (PO)

Dequan Jones (RFA)

Garrett Temple (RFA)

Chris Copeland (RFA)

Rashard Lewis (PO)

Richard Jefferson (PO)

Lance Stevenson (TO)

Chandler Parsons (TO)

…And Others

Post, $10M+

Dwight Howard

Andrew Bynum

Al Jefferson

Post, $6-10M

Paul Millsap

David West

J.J. Hickson

Chris Kaman

Samuel Dalembert

Brandan Wright

Lamar Odom

Nikola Pekovic (RFA)

Tiago Splitter (RFA)

B.J. Mullens (RFA)

Robin Lopez (TO)

Emeka Okafor (PO)

Post, $3-Full-MLE level

Josh McRoberts

Jason Maxiell

Desagana Diop

Zaza Pachulia

Chris Andersen

Elton Brand

DeJuan Blair

Andray Blatche

Cole Aldrich

Carl Landry (PO)

Boris Diaw (PO)

Al Harrington (TO)

Matt Bonner (TO)

Ivan Johnson (RFA)

Tyler Hansbrough (RFA)

Robert Sacre (RFA)

Andris Biedrins (PO)

Charlie Villanueva (PO)

Post, $min-3M

Ryan Hollins

Ronny Turiaf

Jared Jeffries

Nazr Mohammed

Antawn Jamison

Chris Wilcox

Kurt Thomas

Rasheed Wallace

Johan Petro

Anthony Tolliver

Jason Collins

Vladimir Radmanovic

Jermaine O’Neal

Joel Przybilla

Daniel Orton (TO)

Chris Johnson (TO)

Shavlik Randolph (TO)

D.J. White (TO)

Hamed Haddadi (TO)

Jeff Pendergraph (RFA)

Dexter Pittman (RFA)

Aaron Gray (PO)

Hasheem Thabeet (TO)

Greg Stiemsma (TO)

Dante Cunningham (TO)

Lance Thomas (TO)

Jason Smith (TO)

Kyle O’Quinn (TO)

Kevin Jones (TO)

Vyacheslav Kravtsov (TO)

Tim Olbrecht (TO)

Timofey Mozgov (RFA)

Jon Leuer (RFA)

Kwame Brown (PO)

Marreese Speights (PO)

Gustavo Ayon (TO)

Bernard James (TO)

Greg Smith (TO)

…And Others

 

Bonus: I’m going to collect the cap situation for each team here because it’s nice to have it together and the Free Agent List is probably the most useful place to have it.  It’s obviously impossible to give the actual amount of cap space a team might have because most teams have unguaranteed contracts that they can waive, player options that may or may not be taken up, the potential to amnesty players, trades that could be made, etc.  What I am listing here is my best guess at each team’s cap number, including cap holds for first round picks (also fuzzy due to the lottery, lotto hold values in parens for easy update), player options as I believe they will be exercised, and team options as declined if there is any chance they might be.  So it’s a guess of maximum cap space prior to any proactive moves to clear more.

There are actually quite a few teams with cap space this year – it looks like about $350M worth of cap space – and a quick count suggests there are about 31 guys who are likely to be free agents/RFAs and ought to beat the MLE.  Some will get more than $10M, some will get less, but there certainly looks like there’s enough money to pay these guys.

Could Offer Max to Dwight Howard or Chris Paul AND Another Player (1)

ATL 22

Could Offer Max to Dwight Howard or Chris Paul (6)

UTA 28 (1.5)

MIL 31

DET 36 (2.4)

CLE 37 (3.5)

DAL 39 (1.7)

SAS 40

Could Offer Max to One 7-Year Player (3)

HOU 41

LAC 41

NOP 42 (3)

Could Offer Max to One RFA (4)

CHA 44 (4)

SAC 44 (3)

POR 45 (2)

ORL 46 (4.4)

Not Enough Room For a Max Contract But Can Beat the MLE (4)

PHI 47 (1.8)

IND 50

MIN 50 (2)

PHO 50 (3)

Under the Cap, But No Room (2)

MEM 58

WAS 59 (2.2)

Over the Cap (4)

GSW 65

OKC 67 (1.7)

DEN 69

TOR 69 (0)

Over the Tax (6)

BOS 74

CHI 74

NYK 75

LAL 76

BRK 86

MIA 86