This week I’m definitely going to make time for the second of our offseason recaps – the Worst Keeper Decisions Of The Year post is coming! But first, there’s a bunch of tabular numbers you can go through to look for your own players. Numbers ahoy!
The Slamson Memorial Virtual Round Robin
|Team||VRR Record||VRR %||Actual Record||Actual %||Difference|
|Bodacious D||122-21-0||85.3 %||10-3-0||76.9 %||-8.4 %|
|Green Machine||97-46-0||67.8 %||13-0-0||100.0 %||32.2 %|
|Slamson||90-52-1||63.3 %||9-4-0||69.2 %||5.9 %|
|Meat Ballers||83-58-2||58.7 %||10-3-0||76.9 %||18.2 %|
|Lipsticked Pigs||83-59-1||58.4 %||3-10-0||23.1 %||-35.3 %|
|Sweet Sassy Molassy||76-67-0||53.1 %||8-5-0||61.5 %||8.4 %|
|Ball Shaggers||75-66-2||53.1 %||4-9-0||30.8 %||-22.3 %|
|The Bombay Runners||63-78-2||44.8 %||3-10-0||23.1 %||-21.7 %|
|The Very Bad Team||57-84-2||40.6 %||8-5-0||61.5 %||20.9 %|
|DryHeat||49-93-1||34.6 %||5-8-0||38.5 %||3.9 %|
|nutria on viagra||33-110-0||23.1 %||5-8-0||38.5 %||15.4 %|
|Rhymenoceros||24-118-1||17.1 %||0-13-0||0.0 %||-17.1 %|
The Objective Stud
|S. Curry GS||1.427||169||43||48.3||10||90.9||17||51.5||3||22||32||7||2||1.78|
|L. James Mia||1.323||144||38||60.3||33||86.8||7||46.7||1||23||19||6||3||1.73|
|G. Dragic Pho||1.226||153||28||50.9||27||90.0||5||38.5||7||11||37||2||3||4.11|
|P. George Ind||1.001||137||36||49.3||7||70.0||12||54.5||3||20||17||13||2||1.21|
|J. Wall Was||0.846||150||30||44.1||19||76.0||5||31.2||1||16||36||13||0||2.57|
|K. Durant OKC||0.828||126||31||47.0||15||88.2||4||36.4||2||34||21||4||6||1.75|
|J. Holiday NO||0.820||147||26||44.8||4||66.7||4||33.3||8||17||36||8||3||3.27|
|C. Parsons Hou||0.798||141||30||62.5||4||66.7||13||59.1||0||17||13||4||1||1.44|
|D. Wade Mia||0.756||138||34||64.2||14||87.5||0||0.0||4||16||25||7||2||1.32|
|T. Lawson Den||0.727||128||25||51.0||24||75.0||6||50.0||1||11||29||3||0||2.90|
|K. Thompson GS||0.694||170||28||38.9||14||66.7||16||45.7||5||18||16||6||2||1.23|
|G. Hill Ind||0.656||133||18||40.9||14||93.3||7||33.3||3||18||20||8||3||2.50|
|K. Martin Min||0.629||150||26||40.0||37||97.4||9||37.5||4||9||9||2||1||0.90|
|B. Jennings Det||0.607||148||25||44.6||8||72.7||8||42.1||4||7||38||3||0||2.53|
|K. Love Min||0.560||148||23||34.3||21||75.0||9||36.0||15||40||9||3||1||1.00|
|P. Millsap Atl||0.555||127||25||55.6||8||66.7||6||75.0||3||23||8||6||4||0.62|
|A. Blatche Bkn||0.541||81||21||58.3||14||87.5||3||60.0||8||13||4||5||5||1.00|
|C. Anthony NY||0.538||168||39||42.9||31||83.8||2||11.8||7||34||7||3||3||1.00|
|E. Turner Phi||0.535||108||23||56.1||7||100.0||6||60.0||1||20||15||4||0||1.67|
|D. Nowitzki Dal||0.534||128||34||56.7||9||90.0||2||40.0||2||18||12||4||1||2.40|
The Objective Turd
|M. Dunleavy Chi||-0.674||76||3||16.7||1||50.0||0||0.0||1||9||6||2||0||1.00|
|C. Brewer Min||-0.482||112||13||38.2||3||75.0||3||18.8||1||7||7||4||1||0.70|
|K. Irving Cle||-0.431||109||20||35.7||11||73.3||1||7.1||4||5||12||3||0||1.50|
|T. Thompson Cle||-0.325||84||6||31.6||8||66.7||0||0.0||8||24||3||0||0||1.00|
|P. Tucker Pho||-0.294||102||10||41.7||6||75.0||3||27.3||5||9||2||5||0||0.33|
|T. Splitter SA||-0.211||77||13||61.9||5||71.4||0||NaN||7||16||2||1||2||0.22|
|J. McRoberts Cha||-0.191||110||9||40.9||1||16.7||2||28.6||4||15||12||3||1||6.00|
|G. Green Pho||-0.189||87||15||45.5||0||NaN||9||36.0||0||6||6||3||0||1.50|
|R. Allen Mia||-0.159||85||13||40.6||2||100.0||5||35.7||0||6||9||5||2||1.29|
|O. Mayo Mil||-0.151||123||21||40.4||5||83.3||6||33.3||3||13||6||3||0||0.60|
|J. Smith NO||-0.124||96||16||44.4||3||75.0||0||NaN||5||16||3||1||3||1.50|
|D. Green SA||-0.106||92||9||34.6||1||100.0||4||26.7||1||6||7||9||5||1.75|
|R. Gay Tor||-0.099||110||22||39.3||7||53.8||2||28.6||5||19||10||3||5||0.83|
|J. Noah Chi||-0.096||104||12||41.4||3||33.3||0||NaN||12||14||10||2||2||3.33|
|A. Bradley Bos||-0.093||111||21||46.7||1||50.0||5||45.5||2||6||5||2||2||0.83|
|T. Allen Mem||-0.066||79||16||50.0||8||80.0||0||0.0||1||6||3||11||2||0.50|
|B. Griffin LAC||-0.049||112||19||46.3||14||66.7||0||NaN||8||29||5||1||1||0.42|
|C. Bosh Mia||-0.022||112||15||40.5||6||75.0||3||42.9||1||24||3||5||2||0.50|
|C. Boozer Chi||-0.012||98||20||42.6||4||100.0||0||NaN||8||22||5||3||2||0.56|
|R. Lopez Por||-0.005||87||11||45.8||9||90.0||0||NaN||18||11||2||1||1||0.40|
1. Weekly Leaders: Minutes (Klay Thompson, 170), FGM (Stephen Curry, 43), FTM (Kevin Martin, 37), 3PTM (Stephen Curry, 17), ORebs (Andre Drummond/Nikola Pekovic/Robin Lopez, 18), DRebs (Kevin Love, 40), Ast (Brandon Jennings, 38), Stl (John Wall/Paul George, 13), Blk (John Henson/Serge Ibaka, 12)
2. Worst Keeper Decisions: It’s finally here! The long-awaited (yeah, like one week overdue) Worst Keeper Decisions post! As always, everybody gets one bad decision, no matter how many bad decisions they actually made. Let’s just get started!
Ball Shaggers: The Shaggers had a bunch of pretty solid decisions. I would have considered dinging them for letting Jeff Teague go just as he’s looking to put together his best season ever, but they picked him up in the draft for cheaper than he would have cost to keep, so no harm there. I think the biggest mistake here was holding on to Gerald Henderson. Henderson has been terribly mediocre this season – he’s rebounding a bit more than he used to, but he’s putting up a career low shooting percentage of .389 and has reverted to a .304 percentage from three. Outside of that, he doesn’t excite with any of his numbers, and he could almost certainly have been had at the draft position that he cost. Could have drafted: Arron Afflalo.
Bodacious D: This one is agonizing. Not that I don’t want to criticize myself, but I think most of my decisions worked out fine. Howard was too expensive to keep; Evans and Noah have disappointed this year (especially for about 200 keeper points), nobody else I dropped has been all-world while everybody I kept has been going pretty well. I suppose that the worst of the decisions was keeping Jeff Green. He was cheap enough (at 61 points) but he has been underperforming what I thought he would do this year when he was poised to be the only real proven piece on the Celtics. Could have drafted: Harrison Barnes, who isn’t putting up better totals due to the Iguodala minutes crunch, but has real nice percentage numbers and at least would appear to have a brighter future moving forward.
Dry Heat: There were a number of questionable keeps here. Tristan Thompson would seem to be obvious on potential alone, but hasn’t done anything but rebound this year, and Greivis Vasquez is struggling in Sacramento. But worse than either of those two is probably keeping Moe Harkless. Harkless looked to be in a battle with Tobias Harris for the SF slot (a battle you figured he was going to lose) but with Harris being out for most of the season so far, Harkless’ minutes have been eaten away by Afflalo and Oladipo. What happens when Harris comes back is anybody’s guess, but I doubt Harkless’ value will go up from that point barring a trade moving either him or Afflalo out of the minutes crunch. Could have drafted: Afflalo, H. Barnes.
Green Machine: The Green Machine had a tough task this offseason, taking over a failing team from last year, but there was at least a bit of (expensive) talent on the team that got neglected and tossed back into the draft that probably should have stuck around for a while. Kyrie Irving hasn’t had the greatest numbers so far this season, so he doesn’t get the honors. I considered Al Horford, who has been the best player jettisoned by the Machine by a small bit (at least according to Yahoo ranks) but in the end I’m going to choose dropping Roy Hibbert. Hibbert would have cost 202 points, which isn’t cheap, but for that you get 9 rebounds and 3.5 blocks a game which is hard to replace, even if the field goal percentage hurts you a bit.
Lipsticked Pigs: The Pigs have all sorts of reasons to regret having expensive players during the keeper round this year. They kept a ton of talent that can’t be complained about, but to do it, they had to jettison players like Afflalo (one of the hottest guys in the league this year, if unexpectedly) and Jrue Holiday, who has been nearly on par with their kept PGs (Lawson, Conley). Gordon Hayward would also be helpful here, and was a bit more inexpensive. But with the gift of hindsight, I’m going to say that the Pigs’ worst keeper this year has been Larry Sanders. You’d never have thought it during the offseason. At 72 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks and a brand new big contract seemed like a no-brainer. But then Larry went and threw it all away, flashing bad attitude in Milwaukee, getting his minutes cut with poor production, and finally injuring his hand in a bar fight. I mean, this is like the makings of an E! True Hollywood Story, and you never want that with one of your keepers. Those points could have been applied to Afflalo, if only we knew.
Meat Ballers: The Paleo-Melon Ballers are another team that had to pick up the scraps of a flushed roster and figure out what to do. Like Green Machine, they did a pretty good job of it. You can argue about keeping Kobe Bryant, but it’s a decent risk, especially considering it looks like he’ll be back soon and even if his repaired leg is falling off at the ankle, he’ll still shoot 35 times a game. Marcin Gortat has been very good this year, and without hindsight I’d probably have pegged him as the biggest mistake, but that’s before the mess that is Omer Asik. Asik was one of the best values on the roster last year and even with the addition of Dwight Howard to the Rockets, you couldn’t really imagine that he’d fall off like he has. Asik’s scoring has been cut more than in half, and his minutes and rebounds nearly in half as he has thrown his little trade request temper tantrum at Houston ownership for them daring to bring in a superstar that takes some minutes from him. Until he gets moved, he’s an anchor, and the Ballers actually had to drop him. Could have drafted: DeAndre Jordan.
nutria on viagra: There weren’t a lot of mistakes to be made on this roster – once the Aquatic Boner Rodents passed on the siren song of Manu Ginobili (in the keeper round at least) there was only the ghost of Dirk Nowitzki to pass on. Dirk has been remarkably good this year in the early going, but I persist in my belief that it can’t last at his age, so I’m not going to worry the ABRs too much over that decision. The one thing I didn’t quite get was the option to keep a more expensive Mike Dunleavy over a less expensive Jamal Crawford. Sure enough, Crawford is good for 3 more field goals at a higher percentage, one more free throw, one more three, one more assist. Crawford isn’t perfect, but I’m not sure what the draw for Dunleavy was.
rhymenoceros: Our favorite funky ungulate went for a very minimalist strategy this offseason. It’s kind of hard to blame them with the roster as it was, but even going that route there were a few drops that have hurt quite a bit. DeAndre Jordan wasn’t terribly expensive, and the only saving grace for dropping him before his breakout season is the fact that it couldn’t have been predicted before the preseason when he started dropping silly numbers. Derrick Favors is a bit less forgivable, because early in the summer the Jazz basically cleared out their frontcourt to make it all his (and Kanter’s, I guess). Still and all, with as questionable as those drops were, there is really no excuse at all for keeping Luke Ridnour. Luke has been so bad this year (in a whole 21 minutes) that if rhymenoceros didn’t have kids and teaching and pharmacists trying to kill him with morphine to juggle, Ridnour would be dropped already. And no, being a fan of the Oregon Ducks does NOT qualify as a remotely good reason to keep a washed up Ridnour.
Slamson: Slamson did a pretty good job of hitting on all of his keepers this season, with nary a dud among them, but to keep all of those guys he had to let a few go with what we can only hope are some post-breakup regrets. Thaddeus Young isn’t a world-beater, but he’s putting up nice numbers. The same goes for Luol Deng, who is having an even better season but cost a bit more. But the real one that got away here (somewhat shockingly) is Kevin Martin. Martin reunited with BFF Rick Adelman (who has now coached him in three stops – Sacramento, Houston, and Minnesota) to suddenly start putting up the best scoring numbers, in terms of FGM, 3PTM, and 3PT%, of his career. He may never get back to his vaunted 10+ FTA per game that he had in Sacramento before the officials took away his cheap sweep-through foul call, but he’s up to 6.4 FTA again, double what he did last year (and he doesn’t miss from the line). That totally came out of nowhere, but it would be awesome to have right now.
Sweet Sassy Molassy: Sweet Sassy has also done a pretty good job of holding onto players that keep putting up great numbers. One could try to complain about him letting go Anderson Varejao if it weren’t for the fact that he nabbed him back in the draft for quite a bit cheaper than he would have cost. Greg Monroe appears to have taken a step back this season, probably coinciding with the emergence of Andre Drummond, which doesn’t really bode well for the future, but he’s far from a waste of points. My biggest complaint would have to be letting go of Jeremy Lin. I’m not the biggest fan of Lin. I think he got way overhyped for a ten-game explosion in New York and he’s going to spend his entire career trying to sniff that kind of production again, but it’s hard to turn your nose up at his numbers this year. His assists are down a bit, but his shooting percentages (his Kobe’s Heel) are way up – when your PG is shooting 50% from the field and 39% from three, you’ve got absolutely nothing to complain about, except for the fact that he’s not your PG anymore, because you didn’t spend 108 points on him.
The Bombay Runners: The worst performer on the Runners this year has been Tobias Harris – but it’s completely due to injury so you can’t exactly fault him. When he comes back, he ought to be the main SF in Orlando again and start racking up the numbers, so he’s not the worst decision. You could make a case for Jose Calderon at that 20/20 keeper, but he’s only racking up 5 assists in Dallas, so the only thing killing you is his 2.6 threes at .478. That’s a rough stat to let go, but worse than that is holding on to Ersan Ilyasova. The Turkish Enigma burst onto the scene in Milwaukee a few years ago when he suddenly started hitting on 45% of his threes while playing a stretch four, but this year with John Henson taking up a bunch of the PF minutes Ersan has mostly moved over to SF, where he’s losing minutes to Khris Middleton. His 3pt% has plummeted to .313 and his rebound rate has been cut in half. He’s not exactly drag on the roster, but his expectations were quite a bit higher than the results this year.
The Very Bad Team: OK, so I’ll make token mention that Kemba Walker hasn’t been tearing it up this year, but is there any doubt what the worst keeper decision made by the VBT was? You could see it coming a full year in advance when this Bulls fan jumped on the S.S. Derrick Rose in the second or third round of the draft when it had already hit the damn iceberg. After a preordained full season on the IW, the VBT elected to bring Derrick Rose back for 198 keeper points, only to suffer through 10 games of really miserable stats before the other knee decided the first one was probably feeling lonely. That’s two years, two+ high picks, and absolutely nothing to show for it.
3. Pre-Rookie Watch Results 4: Despite my flub on recording last week’s Monday game (gotta keep an eye on that from now on) I managed to catch both guys I intended to look at it separate games at the Maui Invitational, and it didn’t matter much seeing as they wouldn’t have matched up against each other anyway. How did they fare? Here goes:
Andre Hollins: His minutes distribution says he’s a star, as he plays in the high 30s and only sits for about a minute at a time for a breather. Unfortunately, that’s about all of Hollins’ game that says he’s a star. Lacking size (6’1″) and evidently athleticism (not a great leaper, looks a step slow in transition), you’re looking for great ball handling and passing to suggest that he’ll find a place at the next level. In this game, neither of the those were evident. Hollins was quite clearly the #2 PG option on Minnesota, deferring to the speedy and superior handler Mathieu for the vast majority of the game. He didn’t look like a great floor general, either, usually pounding the ball for ten dribbles at the top of the circle and finally making a perimeter pass. He didn’t really try to drive until the last fourth of the game and even then it wasn’t terribly effective. His numbers say he’s a big-time scorer, but in this game his team clearly wasn’t looking for him and when he did get a shot it wasn’t really falling. Defensively I’m not so down on him. Minnesota played mostly zone, but he was an aggressive if not disruptive defender. It was good enough for college, but I don’t know if he bothers a PG in the pros, and I doubt he stays in front of him. I like his instincts on the court, but I don’t think the skill and the athleticism is there. He was probably the third-best guard on his team tonight, even though early in the season he’s sitting at about 19 points and 3.5 assists. So, if your team really needs a 6’1″ jumpshooter that probably plays adequate defense, maybe you waste a second-round pick on him, otherwise he’s looking like camp invite material. Still, as a junior I don’t see anything here that warrants him coming out this year.
Jerami Grant: If you were asked to – quick! – design the physical prototype for your NBA team’s next SF in terms of size, strength, athleticism, etc., well you’d probably design LeBron. But if you were given a chance to redesign on the principle that “your soul” was too high of a price to pay to get that prototype, you’d probably be very happy to downgrade to Jerami Grant. The sophomore Grant is listed at 6’8″, and he’s probably every bit of it because he looks to have a good inch or more on 6’8″ teammate C.J. Fair, who we’ll look at later this year. He’s long, he’s strong, he’s got good bounce, and he glides up the floor. The thing holding Grant back in my eyes is that he excels at the non-skill aspects of the game (see ball, go get ball; see shot, go get block – or goaltend; see basket, go get dunk) but looks a little uncomfortable (certainly not irredeemably so) at the skill set for his position – a little handle, a little dribble-drive, and an outside shot. His shot is very much a work in progress – he rarely attempts threes and has yet to make one this year. But his mid-range shot looks pretty good, and his smooth free throw stroke (and 5-6 FT shooting today) doesn’t match up with a barely 50% FT line. His confidence in his shot is low enough that he passes up wide open threes and sometimes gets abandoned on the perimeter by the opposing D. He’s aggressive on drives, but a bit awkward, though he was finding a way to finish, even if ugly, through contact. Defensively it’s always hard to tell how a player will cope with the NBA man-to-man when he plays exclusively in the Syracuse zone, but he definitely had a few lapses in the zone. He’s not a complete player, and that’s probably why he comes off the bench (for good minutes) in Syracuse and is currently slated for the bottom of the first round (if he declares) despite those two wicked putback dunks he had on the night (one eliciting an excellent “burn up on reentry” joke from Bilas). He’s not ready – but he will be, and when he is, he’s got a high ceiling.
4. Pre-Rookie Watch 5: Now that the Thanksgiving Break is over, I’m going back to two games this week. The first game is Kentucky vs. Baylor, Friday at 7 PM Pacific on ESPN, where we’ll check out Kentucky’s PF Alex Poythress taking on Baylor’s Cory Jefferson. (Yes, we’re going to get to Parker eventually.) The second game will be UNLV vs. Arizona Saturday at 2:15 PM Pacific (ESPN2), where we’ll watch UNLV’s big man Khem Birch take on Arizona’s PF Aaron Gordon. Set your DVRs! And beware – I might not get the Crumpets done on Monday next week…